Who will save uncompleted residential flats when the tide of loan suspension spreads?

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Author: animal production team leader source: official account: animal production team

Due to the uncompleted development, the tide of owners’ loan suspension is rapidly spreading to the whole country.

The wave of loan suspension, which started in Jingdezhen, Jiangxi Province, has spread to dozens of cities such as Nanchang, Wuhan, Zhengzhou, Xi’an, Changsha, Shijiazhuang, Chongqing and Shenzhen, covering the three major regions of the East, central and western regions.


On Weibo, there is a statistical table of forced loan suspension projects. It can be seen from the form that the number of real estate projects that have stopped lending has reached 100 and is still growing. From a regional perspective, Henan has the largest number of uncompleted residential buildings, with 32. From the perspective of enterprises, Evergrande’s uncompleted residential properties ranked first, with 34.

Evergrande has more uncompleted residential flats whose loans have been suspended than in Henan Province. It seems that the “guaranteed delivery building” mentioned by Xu Jiayin has not been satisfied by the owner in the practical construction.


Tuyuan futu Niuniu

Outside Evergrande, rongchuang, Aoyuan, Taihe, Xinli, Xinli, jiazhaoye, sunshine city, Greenland and many other nationally renowned real estate enterprises are deeply involved. Behind the tide of loan suspension, what is displayed is the mess after China’s real estate industry has repeatedly exploded.

At first, the bank gave early warning, cut off the supply of real estate enterprises, and prosecuted the freezing of funds. Then, the suppliers cut off the supply of real estate enterprises and sued them for project funds. The real estate enterprises with broken cash flow chose to lie flat after struggling. Finally, after layers of transmission, the pressure is transmitted to the owner. Without money, the uncompleted development is almost inevitable.

When the real estate enterprises lie flat, the owners cannot lie flat. Because the owners are still burdened with huge loans from banks. One side is the uncompleted development, the other side is huge loans. Millions of owners across the country can’t accept houses and live in buildings, and have become victims of an extremely large number of groups.


Because the law does not support the owners to cut off the supply and stop the loan, the owners who suffer from the uncompleted residential flats bear great pressure for survival for a long time, and safeguarding their legitimate rights and interests has become a dead door. Until, Jingdezhen issued the first notice of collective compulsory loan suspension, which officially fired the first shot of owners’ loan suspension.

Originally, in the process of future house purchase, the owner belongs to the buyer, the bank belongs to the loan provider, and it is also one of the project fund supervisors. However, in uncompleted residential flats, the bank has shifted almost all the responsibility to the owners. The regulatory funds that should have been deposited in the bank’s regulatory account disappeared, and the loans that should have been approved after the real estate was capped were approved. For the sake of their own interests, the banks’ illegal housing loans come first, and the supervision of regulatory funds is not in place. However, when the real estate is in bad condition, the banks actually do not need to bear any responsibility.


The bank will not bear the disappeared regulatory funds; The bank will not bear the house purchase money that is illegally lent before the ceiling of the real estate is not capped. But when the “three red lines” topped, the regulation of the real estate industry, and the avalanche of real estate enterprises, thousands of particles of dust in this era, like mountains, all pressed on the heads of ordinary people.

Is this fair?

The owners don’t want to repay the loan. What they want most is to work safely and repay the loan on time every month. But there is a simple premise: “you have to hand over the building!”

The down payment for buying a house is paid, and the balance is also loaned, so the mortgage pressure every month is on my back.


“You have to hand over the building!”

In my opinion, everything is unbreakable. The owners’ loan suspension will, to a large extent, reshape the bad rules of China’s real estate market. The end of the pre-sale system can be put on the agenda.

Today, China’s urbanization rate has reached 64.72%, which is very close to the urbanization level of 80% in developed countries. We no longer need to lower the threshold of real estate opening through the pre-sale system, so as to promote China’s urbanization at a high speed. On the road of urbanization, China already has the premise to slow down.


From the perspective of real estate, the obstacle to China’s urbanization rate is not that real estate development is too slow, but that there is a serious surplus of real estate, but that people can’t afford to buy houses. The existing houses in China have enough to meet the living needs of 4billion people. The biggest advantage of the pre-sale system is that real estate enterprises can get the owner’s house payment in advance at a very low development cost, so as to enter the development of the next real estate.

For China today, the existence of pre-sale system is no longer necessary. After this round of real estate regulation, the surviving real estate enterprises are fully capable of selling existing houses. In particular, state-owned housing enterprises should set an example in the existing housing sales model.

In the nationwide tide of loan suspension, consumers have almost lost their trust in future houses. In this situation, the dark era of China’s real estate will only become darker if the pre-sale system is not abolished and the existing housing sales system is not implemented with the courage of breaking the wrist.


Continue to engage in pre-sale of future houses, who dares to buy?

The digestion of uncompleted residential flats will last for at least 3-5 years before it can gradually get out of part of the haze. In my opinion, in the next 3-5 years, “guaranteed delivery” will become the top problem in China’s real estate industry, and it is a difficult process to cure the stubborn disease of sepsis.

At present, all uncompleted residential flats in China are facing the same problem: lack of money.

Where did the money go? A large part of it has been used by developers to buy land. Because the lifeline of real estate enterprises is “high leverage” and “high turnover”. Only by constantly acquiring land can we use new plots of land to mortgage and get new loans to support the cash flow of real estate enterprises. This makes real estate enterprises have to take a lot of land and loans.


In this “high leverage” and “high turnover” mode, real estate projects have sprung up one by one and have not yet been capped, and developers have rushed to the next real estate. Like a snowball, there are more and more real estate projects, and the cash flow is far and continuously flowing to the land supply side.

The cost of land accounts for 50% of the cost of the house, which is how it rolls out.

In essence, this is a game of drumming, passing flowers, and fishing.

But when the cash flow of real estate enterprises is cut off, the game will be forcibly ended. Those uncompleted residential flats that have sprung up but have not been completed are the last stage of the game.

Only through this, owners, real estate enterprises, banks and local governments can tide over the robbery together.

But who can save uncompleted residential flats?


In my opinion, we can no longer rely on market economy to deal with uncompleted residential flats. In a market economy, enterprises should pursue profits. Without money, there is no capital willing to accept the offer. To make money for capital, we have to let house prices rise and make capital profitable. But this is not in line with the law of “no speculation in housing”.

The best way is to collect all uncompleted residential flats in the country and solve them by means of planned economy. If necessary, the central financial funds can be used to directly invest in the construction of uncompleted residential flats. Instead of lending money to real estate enterprises, it is better to use special financial funds directly. But at the same time, this cannot be a sample for the finance to wipe the bottom of real estate enterprises, but to carry out bankruptcy liquidation of relevant real estate enterprises, especially Evergrande, an incurable real estate enterprise, bankruptcy liquidation, is a relief for everyone.


As a compensation for financial funds, the house purchased by the owner can no longer be counted as a pure commercial house. It is suggested to add a restrictive clause: before the loan is paid off, it is not allowed to buy or sell freely, and the returned bank loan is transferred to the special financial account.

In this way, it is equivalent to the transfer of the owner’s housing loan to the finance, which becomes the money that the finance owes to the bank. The finance department will collect the loans repaid by the owners and return them to the bank at the same time.

As the biggest beneficiary of real estate, land finance comes out to cover the bottom of uncompleted residential flats, which is also taken from and used by the people.

China has a serious surplus of real estate. In the future, China does not need so many real estate enterprises. It is enough for provinces to retain several leading state-owned large real estate enterprises and private high-quality real estate enterprises for benign competition.

As for the pre-sale system, it is a great invention of capitalism and can gradually withdraw from the stage of socialist history.

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