Author: Kafka is busy source: outsider’s horizon (ID: hooyar_380097485)
On Friday, China and the United States signed an audit and supervision cooperation agreement, which means that the storm of collective delisting of China capital stocks, which has been tossed for two years, will come to an end.
In fact, from the very beginning, President Chuan used this trick to frighten people. I knew it would not work.
On the surface, the delisting of Chinese stocks has a great impact on Chinese enterprises, but in fact, it has a greater impact on the US dollar.
It is no exaggeration to say that if the securities and Exchange Commission of the United States breaks its skin and, with the support of the so-called patriotism, brazenly dismisses the collective of China capital stocks, believe it or not, the Federal Reserve and the United States dollar will be the first ones to suffer?
I have a lot of friends around me. I like to open a foreign exchange account and get some US dollars to speculate in US stocks. Most of them have gone to speculate in Chinese stocks. Why do you ask? Because I am familiar with it.
In recent years, many voices criticizing China’s stock market have said, why can’t I get up, that is, there are no excellent enterprises, and the three Internet platforms are not all listed in the United States? Then it is deduced that Wall Street is better, so the best Chinese enterprises are more willing to go public in the United States.
There are too many financial kneeling people in the financial circle. If you don’t say that the US empire stock market is the best in the world, you will be embarrassed to mix in the market. First, your ideas are not international enough, and then those who hang this brand have to be marginalized.
Of course, to prove that the U.S. and the U.S. stock markets will always be great, it is definitely not possible to rely on the incessant chanting of scriptures. Talking back and forth on wheels is certainly a good way to quarrel. When it is used to help the U.S. dollar to steal money, there is always something missing. You have to cite an example to explain why the best enterprises in China have to cry and shout to go public in the United States.
In addition to helping raise funds, the more important role of the stock market is to exchange chips.
In 2018, musk was besieged by various short selling agencies. He was exhausted. There were about gambling and various private unlimited liability joint and several guarantees, which made the big man very anxious. In order to alleviate his anxiety, he openly smoked marijuana.
Later, China’s super factory saved Lao ma. He became the richest man in the world from Jia Yueting, a new energy swindler who was on the verge of bankruptcy. His value rose from a honey black hole to hundreds of billions of dollars. In the past two years, he cashed in tens of billions.
You see, Tesla is still the same Tesla, but musk is no longer the poor musk four years ago. Tesla’s stock price has risen dozens of times, which means that Tesla has created nearly trillion dollars of wealth out of thin air through the foam of the stock market. The wealth created in these markets has become real dollars through trading. Can’t these dollars be used to buy when they enter the consumer market?
We can only see the power of CPI in daily necessities. President Biden scolded the oil traders in public for making more money than God. But compared with musk, whose value has soared by hundreds of billions, do they really earn so much?
Can the wealth created in the stock market be converted into US dollars instead of US dollars?
Why did no one say anything about the CPI created by the US stock market? Most of the money is taken away by the wealthiest people. The poor people who have been made to live a hard life by the price have no qualification to participate. Of course, the media responsible for publicizing all these things are even more unwilling to popularize science for the people because they have also reaped various benefits. Therefore, in the eyes of ordinary people, it is almost equal to that it has not happened.
We should know that the US dollar is the world currency. The world currency needs the support of rich people from all over the world to absorb the world’s wealth. The more people support the US dollar, the more stable its position will be.
Think about it. China, the largest single market in the world, and all the enterprises representing the profitability of the Chinese market are not listed in the United States. What will the funds in the market that recognize China’s economic prospects do?
Of course, I will queue up to HK or me a to participate in this wealth feast.
So who is losing? They are not linked to the US dollar, which means that the US Federal Reserve has lost the opportunity to create trillions of dollars of wealth out of thin air. The loss of this money actually makes the US balance sheet shrink abruptly. If you don’t know the consequences of shrinking the balance sheet, take a look at the effects of the bursting of Japan’s foam economy.
When the US capital market fails to accommodate the excellent enterprises in the world’s second-largest economy, the magic damage will not be as simple as the contraction of the balance sheet.
Many people exchange US dollars to participate in the transactions in the US capital market. Under the current situation of Sino US competition, it is not said that we have advantages and the United States has disadvantages. At least so far, the United States dare not say that it can economically curb the rise of a great power.
So you see, small funds play games for the purpose of winning excess returns, but large funds are the first factor to protect the principal position, so large funds often introduce hedging.
In the Sino US game, it seems too risky for big funds to bet on either side of the US and China. Smart money will bet on both sides, so no matter who wins, big funds will not suffer.
Look at me. A is actually a fairly closed market. In addition, the Hong Kong stock market still has capacity and liquidity problems.
Well, an important supplement here is the US China stocks.
I still remember that in the big bear market of China a in 2015, the stock market of China capital stock was not affected at all, and it still soared against the trend. Why? Is it true that only Chinese enterprises listed in the United States developed well during that period?
In fact, sometimes the stock price is not so closely related to the operation of enterprises.
It is only because there is a problem with the liquidity of our company A. the U.S. market is full of liquidity, so the funds are more willing to participate in the game where the liquidity is good. If they have the money to participate, the market value will naturally rise.
International capital can share the dividends of China’s economic development by betting on Chinese stocks.
But what if the US market does not have these Chinese stocks?
Then they can only exchange US dollars for Renminbi or Hong Kong dollars, and these liquidity will disappear from the US market. If China’s development speed is better than that of the United States, and the Chinese companies corresponding to Renminbi or Hong Kong dollars bring more benefits to international large funds in the capital market than that of the United States, then capital has no urine of the motherland. In the past, they could abandon pound sterling and franc, but now why can’t they abandon us dollars?
Let’s take a look at the actual situation in China now. Are we still like the capital shortage of more than ten years ago? After decades of economic development, there is not only excess productivity but also excess capital in China.
Chinese enterprises can also get good development by relying on Chinese local capital, but now it is difficult to find good projects.
There are always big financial V’s shouting that the liquidity of domestic and Hong Kong stocks is not as good as that of Wall Street. But you must know, is all the money in the United States American? Even if it comes to the United States and is converted into US dollars, does it not care about the income, but turn into red neck and sing Maga every day?
Just like before, apple relied on a lot of its own followers and went to fight Tencent. After a lot of trouble, it came to a conclusion that if wechat could not be installed on Apple’s mobile phone, most Apple users would give up apple.
The same is true of the US capital market. The liquidity here is good because the market can provide a wealth of financial categories and there is more choice for funds. Now that you have removed the world’s second largest economy from the supply menu, many funds will also leave. The liquidity of the US main market will be affected. Do you think apple and Amazon can still maintain such a high market dream rate?
Liquidity can generate a liquidity premium, but abundant liquidity comes from inclusiveness, rather than narrow priority. You take all the advantages, so you have to vote with your feet. Please play by yourself.
US stocks fell sharply on Friday because the chairman of the Federal Reserve was there again.
In order to ease inflation, the Americans engaged in a reverse currency war. Ignoring the actual economic situation and the liquidity problems of the world, they forced the dollar index and forced the currencies of various countries to depreciate. From the book view, it seems that the impact of CPI on the lives of residents can be alleviated. However, another problem lies there. Because the dollar is strong, the dollar outside the United States will naturally become less, Those who hold us dollars are unwilling to take them out to participate in the circulation because they see its rising price. The world is short of US dollars, but people all over the world have to live. You can shout the slogan of anti globalization, but many urgently needed commodities must be obtained through global trade. Originally, globalization was settled in US dollars. Now that we are short of US dollars, can we not live?
Therefore, more and more countries are setting up small groups to do de dollarization international trade. Originally, it is very convenient for international trade to have a dollar as the general equivalent. The supply of dollars is sufficient, and no one will find trouble for themselves. However, the problem is that the United States, in order to solve its own CPI problem, forces everyone to have no dollars. Therefore, the de dollarization trading system has been established under compulsion. Once it is used, In the future, people will not need so many dollars.
Is this the loss of US dollars or the loss of various countries?
If we all try our best to avoid the flow of US dollars in trade, what about the extra US dollars?
In the past, the US dollar could still be a big pie for the US stock market to make money forever. It lured the world’s wealth to come to the United States for trading and value-added games. As long as the wealth of the rich in all countries was bound to the US dollar, even if the share of the US dollar fell in international trade for a while, it bound the rich. This share will come back sooner or later. Under the capitalist system, what ordinary people do you think are the richest people? As long as their wealth is deeply tied to the US dollar, they will naturally come out to help the US dollar platform in various postures.
If the United States really kicked out all the Chinese stocks, what would other rich people think? Today is China, who is next? No one dares to tie up with the US dollar so tightly. Then, whose loss will this become? It means that what is lost will really be lost forever and will never come back.
So you see, when the Federal Reserve says that it wants hawks to the end, the securities and Futures Commission of the United States immediately becomes very talkative. This is the proper way to play wealth hedging.
So you see, the reason is so simple. If you overturn the plate, you will suffer the most.
When the United States played a trade war, everyone was terrified. Now? Who is the one who begged for a quick truce? Who is the one who can’t get off?
When it comes to the delisting of China concept stocks, Wall Street has learned a lot and finally recognized the facts. In the short term, it seems that the delisting of China concept stocks can frighten people and cause China concept stocks to plummet. However, in the long term, the damage is bound to be American finance.
You can pay attention to an interesting phenomenon. Recently, the trend of China equity market is opposite to that of the US stock market. In the rebound of China equity market since April, the US stock market continues to fall. When the US stock market stops falling, China equity market continues to fall back.
A few days ago, I wrote an article “Beware! A new round of decline in US stocks is about to start”. I said that this wave of decline in US stocks began in the middle of August, and I looked at the index of general stocks. It was almost from that time that I began to slowly stop falling and rebound.
If we look at this trend, there will be a wave of opportunities for China’s stock market.