Whose stumbling block are you!

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Author: Sheng Tang rushong source wechat official account: the chief shopkeeper’s knife has been authorized to reprint

The entry of Eastern European countries into NATO was the root cause of the outbreak of the Russian Ukrainian war. I believe everyone is already familiar with this root cause. I won’t go into details here. However, joining NATO does not mean that we can rest easy, because among NATO member states, there are also three, six, nine and so on. By “369”, I do not mean the strong position of the United States in NATO or the respected position of Western European countries in NATO. These are all determined according to the economic, military and various contributions to NATO of each country. Even if they are graded, it is understandable. For example, the leading position of the United States in NATO is first of all its contribution to the liberation of Europe in World War II, then its contribution to NATO accounted for 22% and Germany accounted for 14%. However, Germany was defeated in the Second World War, and one of the responsibilities of the U.S. military in Europe was the revival of the military value of sealing Germany. So Germany, like Britain and France, is at the second level of NATO.

The above has both the result of strength and the influence of historical factors. So it’s not surprising that this hierarchy is formed. However, there is a real ranking of 369 in the framework of the proud NATO. That is the level of security protection. Based on NATO’s initial goal is to fight Warsaw Pact and protect European security, that is, the security of Western European countries. Therefore, Western European countries are the core protected areas of NATO. [now this function is being deliberately expanded by the United States, that is, NATO is Pan globalized. Countries such as South Korea, Japan and Australia will establish closer relations with NATO in the future, and may even establish an Asia Pacific version of NATO. This possibility is not a trend at present, but is actually happening. In the next few days’ G7 summit and NATO summit, we should see more and more evidence of this ??

If there is a core reserve, there will naturally be a non core reserve. After the Eastern European countries joined NATO, they became the non core protected areas of NATO. For example, the three Baltic countries are such non core protection countries. Moreover, NATO has given this level of protection a very disgusting name, which is called the stumbling block strategy.

What is a stumbling block strategy? In fact, it is very vivid. The core forces of NATO believe that if Russia launches a war against Europe, the Baltic Sea and other Eastern European countries will become a stumbling block for Russia. That is, the mission of these countries is to slow down Russia’s progress and give western European countries, the United States and Canada more time to deal with Russia’s’ aggression ‘. In other words, Eastern European countries, including Ukraine, which has not yet joined NATO, are a stone in the hands of NATO, and their greatest role is to hinder Russia’s progress.

Of course, it seems that this kind of strategic arrangement is very disgusting. It simply uses Eastern European countries as a tool to hinder Russia’s progress. But why are Eastern European countries still flocking to NATO? There are three reasons for this.

First of all, the Eastern European countries believe that this is an opportunity to catch the first class of the world train. To join NATO means to rely on the United States, the world’s No. 1 hegemon. Moreover, judging from the current situation, after the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact and the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Russia was also unable to attack NATO, [once upon a time, Russia wanted to join NATO]. This makes the most of the Eastern European countries to join NATO, in fact, the first thing to seek is not security assurance, but a basic step to integrate into the western circle, and the second is security assurance.

The second is that after joining NATO, you will not be beaten by NATO. This is a bloody lesson for Eastern European countries. The Kosovo war launched by NATO in 1999 is a very obvious example. The Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (fry) insists on an independent foreign policy and hopes to form a Balkan alliance to achieve this kind of diplomatic and economic autonomy. As a result, it was bombarded by NATO and has not recovered. Therefore, joining NATO, paying membership fees and assuming part of the membership responsibilities will not be beaten, which is a more cost-effective choice.

Third, security. In the stumbling block plan, NATO promised that if an Eastern European country was destroyed by Russia because of the stumbling block plan, NATO would be responsible for helping it recover its territory and establish a new country within 180 days. At present, NATO’s strategic planning for the three Baltic countries is just like this.

Yesterday I was still talking about how Russia would find ways to punish the Baltic three countries for being rude to neutral to Lithuania. I thought of this method today. Since NATO has implemented a stumbling block program for Eastern European countries. Then Russia can use this stumbling block plan to punish Lithuania.

For example, Russia can strategically control the whole territory of Lithuania in a very short time [about 100 days] Now the war between Russia and Ukraine has lasted 120 days, and the scope of Russian control is roughly the same as that of Lithuania. It may be a little larger, and Lithuania does not have the broad in-depth buffer of Ukraine. If the Russian and Belarusian allied forces start to attack, it will really be just a charge or it will make Kaliningrad no longer an enclave. Of course, Russia can not occupy Lithuania, and the use of force against Lithuania is just a lesson for it. Then in 179 days, the whole line was withdrawn and the Lithuanian home was smashed to pieces. In this way, NATO and Russia can declare the victory of the war on the same day. Russia has achieved the strategic goal of “do it yourself”, while NATO has helped Lithuania recover as promised. Is it a pleasure to have the best of both worlds?

When NATO formulated this strategic plan, the Eastern European countries agreed not because they believed that NATO could help them recover, but because they believed that after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia was no longer able to pose a threat to Eastern Europe. Moreover, in recent years, the Eastern European countries [Poland, Czech Republic and the Baltic States, etc.] have made every effort to further bring down Russia. It is also for this purpose that Russia cannot pose a threat to Eastern Europe. Therefore, they agreed to play the role of stumbling block. In their hearts, Russia has shaken its feet and is no longer able to kick these stumbling blocks.

However, after the outbreak of the Russian Ukrainian war, they found that Russia’s big feet were still very awesome, and the big stone in Ukraine was kicked without any weakness. Then I’m afraid it’s even easier for me to talk about these small stones. They rely on the identity of NATO member states. But at this time, they found a fatal problem, that is, the stumbling block plan.

In this stumbling block plan, the role of Eastern European countries is to recover after 180 days of Russia’s “invasion”. But what should we do in 180 days? This is a huge loophole, so Estonia in the Baltic Sea has proposed to change this stumbling block plan these days. Let NATO ensure that the security of these Eastern European countries should be ensured at the first time when Russia launches a war, rather than “restoration”.

This demand can be said to be the voice of all the stumbling blocks after the outbreak of the Russian Ukrainian war. After all, they see now that Russia really dares to start. It was thought that this stumbling block was just a pretence. Now it seems that it may really become a stumbling block in the future. In this case, the Eastern European countries that have joined NATO need to modify the NATO strategy more and more urgently. NATO’s military deployment to the Eastern European countries is bound to change accordingly. It is either to increase military deployment to Eastern European countries or to build a more stable strategic peaceful relationship with Russia. All this needs to be slowly run in and verified in the ordeal of the Russian Ukrainian war.

However, the 180 day deadline in the stumbling block plan has given me some vague verification of the article “this September” I wrote a few days ago. 180 days, from February 24th to August 24th. Six months later, the war entered a new period at the end of August. Although Ukraine is not a NATO country, we can basically judge from NATO’s setting of the 180 day period. NATO’s emergency response to Russia needs half a year of preparation time. Six months later, when the dust of the Russia Europe contest is settled, can we fight it? Can I call? How long can it last if you take a taxi? And so on, you can get a more clear judgment and evaluation.

This is probably the reason why the EU has set a time limit of 180. Inadvertently, I got the result of 180 days according to some vague clues. This is probably some intuitive judgment experience from my long-term observation.

The stumbling blocks of Eastern Europe are all worried now…. Whose stumbling block is he?

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