Why am I very pessimistic about the prospects of China Japan relations?

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Author: Ming Shuyuan official account: Ming shuzatan wechat id:laomingdashu

Personally, I have been looking forward to the day when China, Japan and South Korea can work together to lead the integration and revitalization of Asia.

For a long time, when I saw that after the brutal killing of two world wars, France and Germany finally achieved reconciliation, laying the foundation for the process of reconciliation, reconstruction and integration in Europe after the end of the Second World War, I would sigh that China, Japan and South Korea belong to the Confucian cultural circle, and both have achieved economic rise and national revitalization in the process of industrialization. When, Can China, Japan and South Korea, like Germany and France in Europe, get out of the entanglement of historical gratitude and resentment, move towards the great reconciliation of Geopolitics in East Asia, and even promote the realization of the “Asian Union” and “Asian dollar”?

Later, I found that Asia will still be unable to follow the path of reconciliation and unity in Europe after World War II for a long time to come.

The cruelty and sadness of human history is that the new geopolitical pattern is often the result of bloody wars.

Over the past fourorfive years, the European continent has experienced killings and wars, and many large-scale wars have often involved the whole of Europe, which are extremely destructive.

For example, in the “thirty year war” between 1618 and 1648, both belligerents lost their strength and finally established the “Westphalia System”; From 1803 to 1815, the Napoleonic War, which broke out after the French Revolution, swept many parts of Europe again. Finally, France was defeated, and the so-called “Vienna system” appeared, and Czarist Russia once became the “European gendarmerie”. Of course, there was the first World War from 1914 to 1918, and the Second World War broke out again 20 years later.

After more than 400 years of bloody killings, conflicts and wars, Europe ushered in the process of reconciliation, reconstruction and reunification in the second half of the 20th century.

Even so, the ultimate reconciliation in Europe could not be achieved because of the outbreak of the cold war. At present, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is tearing apart the geopolitical scars of the European continent for hundreds of years, which may plunge Europe into new turbulence and war again.

Similar to Europe, since the Meiji Restoration in Japan, East Asia has also suffered a series of brutal killings in the process of modernization in the past 150 years.

From the Sino Japanese War of 1894, to Japan’s annexation of Korea and the launch of a comprehensive war of aggression against China, at this stage, Japan’s rise tried to integrate Asia in the name of the “Greater East Asia co prosperity circle”, but Japan was not enough to undertake this task, either from the historical accumulation or from the actual national strength. In this process, Japan’s foreign aggression has brought profound disasters to the people of other countries and regions in Asia.

In World War II, although Japan was defeated, the cold war soon arrived and Asia fell into division again. In particular, the United States became a veritable world hegemon after the Second World War. In the process of defeating Japanese militarism, it strongly advanced into Asia, and finally turned Japan and South Korea into the “military occupying power” of the United States, which had a decisive impact on the post-war geopolitical pattern of East Asia.

For this reason, there was no meaningful reconciliation in East Asia after World War II. The current geopolitical pattern in East Asia was basically created by China in the war to resist US aggression and aid Korea. China, North Korea and the Soviet Union (later Russia) are on one side, while the United States, Japan and South Korea are on the other.

In the 1970s, with the reconciliation between China and the United States, the geopolitical pattern in East Asia was once loosened. China and Japan established diplomatic relations in 1972, seven years earlier than the establishment of diplomatic relations between the United States and China; The reconciliation between China and South Korea was delayed until 1992 after the end of the cold war. In hindsight, this period was probably the “best time” for East Asian reconciliation in the past 150 years.

Trump came to power in 2016, which decisively changed the nature of China US relations. The United States defined China as the number one strategic competitor, and even a potential enemy. In this context, as the de facto “military occupying power” of the United States, South Korea and Japan have been slowly but irreversibly incorporated into the strategic system of containment against China by the United States in the past six years, which will eventually interrupt the reconciliation process between China, Japan and South Korea.

Take the China Japan South Korea Free Trade Zone as an example. This initiative was put forward in 2002. In 2012, China, Japan and South Korea launched relevant negotiations. Ten years have passed, but China, Japan and South Korea have been unable to reach an agreement. Among them, the most fundamental reason lies not in the irreconcilable differences between China, Japan and South Korea, but in the interference and obstruction of the United States. If the United States does not give up its containment strategy against China and coerces Japan and South Korea to “show loyalty” and “choose sides” to a certain extent, there is basically no possibility of reaching a China Japan South Korea Free Trade Zone in the short term. In the context of the game between China and the United States, if the China Japan South Korea free trade zone is reached, it will constitute a great blow to the efforts of the United States to establish a united front between the United States, Europe and Japan with China. The United States will not sit idly by and watch this happen.

Based on the above historical analysis, I personally believe that the current geopolitical pattern in East Asia has three basic characteristics:

First, due to the game between China and the United States, especially the United States’ containment strategy against China, the reconciliation process between China, Japan and South Korea has been interrupted and is moving towards the era of confrontation again;

Second, the front division of geopolitical confrontation in East Asia is returning to the pattern after the Korean War from 1950 to 1953, with China, Russia and North Korea on one side and the United States, Japan and South Korea on the other;

Third, the current geopolitical pattern in Northeast Asia is unstable and transitional, and the future direction depends on the result of the game between China and the United States.

For me personally, the result I most hope to see is that in the next 10 or 20 years, China will gradually win the game between China and the United States, eventually driving the hegemonic forces of the United States out of East Asia, reopening the historic process of reconciliation between China, Japan and South Korea, and finally creating a new “Asian Renaissance century”. If China and the United States cannot decide the outcome of the game for a while, the geopolitical pattern of East Asia will remain deadlocked in some form for a long time.

From the perspective of China, the best way to achieve reconciliation and rejuvenation in East Asia is for Asian countries to eliminate the interference of American hegemonism and, under the guidance of China, make the middle and late 21st century a real “Asian century” by means of China, Japan and South Korea, China, Japan and South Korea + ASEAN.

For the United States, the last thing it wants to see is that the United States is driven out of Asia, and China integrates Asia to create a new “Asian century”. Therefore, the United States will do everything possible to obstruct the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, and by strengthening the military alliance between the United States, Japan and the United States and South Korea, it will provoke geopolitical conflicts in East Asia and undermine the historic process of reconciliation, unity and reunification in East Asia.

For the United States, the best Asia is a divided Asia.

For Japan, historically, it has no “destiny” to lead Asia, but has always had an unyielding “ambition”.

In the game between China and the United States, we should not only see the fact that the United States coerces Japan to cooperate with the U.S. containment strategy against China, but also see clearly that Japan is also happy to see the secret calculation of the fierce fight between China and the United States to a certain extent.

In the game between China and the United States, in order to pull Japan to participate in containing China, the United States must appropriately liberalize the restrictions imposed on Japan as a defeated country after World War II, so that Japan can become a “normal country” to a certain extent. If China loses, this is simply “great good news” for Japan, which will properly become the “second in command” designated by the United States in East Asia.

If the United States loses, Japan can just get rid of the control of the United States and become a “normal country”. At that time, Japan will either compete with China for leadership in Asia, or surrender to Chinese culture and China’s comprehensive national strength, and return to its historical normal in the geopolitical pattern of East Asia for thousands of years.

No matter which of the above situations happens, Japan is likely to move towards the goal of becoming a “normal country”, which is better than Japan’s current situation.

It is for this reason that I say that I am not optimistic about the prospects of China Japan relations for some time to come.

Of course, China hopes to improve Sino Japanese relations, and will strive to divide the efforts of the United States to establish a united front between the United States, Japan and Europe with China, so as to reduce the pressure China faces in the Sino US game.

However, from the above analysis, it can be seen that the United States is constantly coercing and inducing Japan to join the United Front with China out of the need to contain China, and Japan, as the de facto “military occupying power” of the United States, has limited ability to resist the pressure of the United States.

What makes me more pessimistic is that Japan itself is also happy to see the fierce fight between China and the United States, because some Japanese politicians calculate that no matter who wins or loses the game between China and the United States, Japan is expected to become a “normal country”, which is precisely the key to get rid of Japan’s status as a defeated country in World War II.

The result of the confluence between the United States and Japan is that the relationship between China and Japan will only get worse, not better.

Now, there are few factors that restrict the further deterioration of China Japan Relations:

First, in view of the economic interdependence between China, Japan and South Korea, which is inseparable in the industrial chain, value chain and supply chain, it is unknown to what extent this economic connection can slow down the process of confrontation and conflict between China and Japan. From the lessons of the first World War, the booming trade links between major countries can not stop the outbreak of war in the end;

Second, in view of the possible conflict between China, the United States, China and Japan, it is also unknown to what extent anti war groups and peacekeepers in Japan can prevent the historical process of Japan’s right deviation. This is also not optimistic.

I am not only very pessimistic about China Japan relations, but also pessimistic about China South Korea relations.

Yin Xiyue’s coming to power and the possible change in his attitude towards China are not accidental. This is a difficult choice that the United States will inevitably make as the de facto “military protectorate” of the United States in the context of the game between China and the United States, which adopts the containment strategy against China.

At this stage, the deterioration of China South Korea relations is far from that of China Japan relations, but in the future, if the struggle between China and the United States is further intensified, and even tends to be white hot, South Korea, as the “military occupying power” of the United States, can only choose to stand on the side of the United States at the most critical moment.

After all, according to the military alliance between the United States and South Korea, even the wartime command of the South Korean army is in the hands of the Americans.

As Chinese, if war breaks out again on the Korean Peninsula or in East Asia, what choices can we expect South Korea to make in favor of China?

Of course, we should also see that the possible slow deterioration trend of China ROK relations in the future is more the result of incitement, provocation and coercion by the United States. South Korea does not have the motivation to actively provoke contradictions and conflicts between China and South Korea, which is essentially different from Japan.

For China, to overcome the current geopolitical dilemma in East Asia, there are two aspects of work that may need to be done:

First, China as a whole should maintain strategic concentration, patience and wisdom. While the United States hopes to constantly provoke contradictions between China, Japan and China and South Korea, China should not dance to the rhythm of the United States and take the initiative to enter the trap of confrontation between China, Japan and China and South Korea manipulated by the United States.

In this regard, the complex economic and trade links between China, Japan and South Korea are an important lever that China can use.

In addition, China’s increasing comprehensive national strength, in the possible geopolitical conflict in East Asia, may bring a devastating blow to South Korea and Japan, which is the final guarantee to restrain Japan and South Korea from fighting a “proxy war” against China for the United States and to find ways to avoid the United States dragging Japan and South Korea into the conflict with China.

Second, China must prepare for the worst. The only way for China to strive for the fundamental improvement of China Japan and China South Korea relations and create an era of great reconciliation and cooperation between China, Japan and South Korea is to make the United States abandon its containment strategy against China or drive American hegemonism out of East Asia. In any case, China needs to have strong economic, technological and military strength.

The reason is very simple. The stronger China is, the safer China is.

On the contrary, under the instigation of the United States, all kinds of ghosts and monsters will jump out and continue to create all kinds of trouble for China.

Finally, let’s talk about the official and private reactions of China after the assassination of Shinzo Abe.

The official attitude is very clear, and a message of condolences has been sent to Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to express condolences and sympathy.

The reasons behind this include not only the fact that China, as a big country, should adhere to the basic humanitarian position and principles, but also the strategic consideration that China must compete with the United States for Japan in the context of the Sino US game.

Maybe China will not be able to break up the US Japan military alliance in the end, but even if it can, it will be a small success if it does not give Japanese right-wing politicians the opportunity to create new anti China issues and the United States the opportunity to further provoke the confrontation between China and Japan.

Chinese people are very dissatisfied with Japanese right-wing politicians. This sentiment is natural and has very clear and specific reasons, and the responsibility mainly lies with Japanese right-wing politicians themselves.

For those who feel good about themselves, have an explosion of moral superiority, and have a state of “everyone is drunk and I wake up alone”, I also want to say that you should have at least a sense of sympathy for the dissatisfaction of Chinese people with Japanese right-wing politicians. Everyone is Chinese, so don’t fight in a nest, let alone think you are noble than others. Having this enigmatic sense of moral superiority is essentially a very low-level and ridiculous thing It’s ridiculous.

The words of a family are for reference only.

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