Original: Gu Ziming authorized to reprint this article to wechat official account: zhengshitang plus2019
Over the weekend, I’d like to share with you some recent thoughts on why the policies formulated by various countries are not only different, but even different.
For example, in the face of the global recession, the United States chose to increase interest rates and shrink the table, while Japan chose to reduce interest rates and expand the table.
There are many interpretations from the economic dimension, but it is quite easy to understand from the political perspective.
Different people have different bottoms.
The Wall Street capitalists who rule the United States and the eight major business corporations who rule Japan, these groups that really determine the fate of the country, will promote the country to implement policies that are most conducive to their own groups.
Wall Street controls the global seigniorage, and naturally likes to collect global taxes through seigniorage. Therefore, promoting moderate dollar inflation is one of the means to harvest the world. Therefore, the Federal Reserve was not willing to vigorously increase interest rates and shrink its table at the beginning of the year.
But at the same time, the dollar is also a lifelong staple of Wall Street. When inflation is bad enough to affect the ability of the dollar to pay global seigniorage, the Federal Reserve will quickly adjust its policy to raise interest rates more hawkish.
What really determines the Fed’s interest rate policy is not the employment rate and inflation that the market believes, but the hegemony of Wall Street and the dollar system.
Similarly, the yen can create a beggar thy neighbor exchange rate war in Asia because for the gatekeepers who are in charge of Japan’s destiny, they attach importance to the huge appreciation of overseas assets and the export of manufactured goods from the eight major trading houses.
Unlike the dollar, which is the right of Wall Street to print money, the yen is just the creditor’s right of the Japanese people.
Lowering the interest rate of the yen and unrestricted bond purchase, although the Japanese people suffer a lot, can provide endless low-cost financing ammunition for Japanese doorkeepers, promote the Japanese manufacturing of commercial companies to be more competitive overseas, and also help their overseas assets to increase significantly.
At present, the interpretation of many economic dimensions in the market is just for the real interest groups behind it.
This is also one of the reasons why I misjudged and did not understand Russia’s strategy before the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
With the rapid development of Russian energy group in the past two decades, its internal penetration and influence have become higher and higher. Like the U.S. oil and military industry group, it is also kidnapping Russia’s diplomatic and strategic security.
Finally, under the kidnapping of two energy groups, the United States and Russia came to a fight against Zhou Yu in Ukraine.
The same logic is the same from countries to cities.
Some regions promote national policies to support the automobile industry chain because the automobile industry chain is the pillar industry in these regions. Some regions spare no effort to save the real estate economy, but also because local governments have been closely tied to land finance and developers.
In short, decisive interest groups have issued decisive policies.
Correspondingly, pork and virtual currency, which we talked about before, are having a hard time this year. The reason is that their policy influence is too low. At the critical moment, they should make way for other high-weight groups.
It’s like that we bought 240 billion Airbus on the 1st, not because of how good Airbus products are or how much we need aircraft, but because Airbus has the heaviest weight. It’s not only the industrial chain throughout Europe, but also the biggest financier behind countless European politicians.
With the support of the financiers, not only many policies will be adjusted, but some media in front of the stage will also turn to cooperate with the capital behind it.
Just like in the past two years, some economists advocated that interest rates should be cut on a large scale every day. In essence, they all stood in the perspective of real estate, borrowing more money to blow bubbles and leverage expansion, shouting for the magic arm of big real estate capitalists.
Over the past year, not only has the global pattern been dominated by major interest groups manipulating the national game, but many of the global news and expert interpretations we have seen have also provided services to the corresponding interest groups in the midst of the chaos created by the great changes that have not occurred in a century.