Original: Shenzhen Ningnanshan Source: Ningnanshan
May 28, 2023 is a significant day in the history of China’s aerospace industry. China’s airliner, C919, has officially been put into commercial operation. It will fly from Shanghai Hongqiao Airport to Beijing Capital Airport,
On May 29, another good news came from the official announcement that China would launch a manned lunar landing before 2030. At present, the China Manned Space Engineering Office has fully deployed the development and construction of manned lunar landing, including the development of a new generation of manned carrier rocket (Long March 10), a new generation of manned spacecraft, a lunar lander, a lunar suit and other flight products, as well as related testing and launching facilities and equipment at the new launch site.
Undoubtedly, it is exciting. China has officially planned and announced it, which indicates that the relevant work has already been in operation.
Aerospace is a high-tech product. I wrote an article long ago calling the aerospace industry a “white hegemonic industry”. Take Japan and South Korea, two industrial powers in Asia, for example. Japan and South Korea have achieved success in the manufacture of cars, engineering machinery and ships sailing on the sea, but there is a huge gap between Japan and Europe, the United States and Russia in the aerospace field, Even Russia, which has the weakest economic capability among the three, has a significantly higher level of aerospace capabilities than Japan and South Korea.
Only China in Asia has the ability to break the monopoly of white countries in the aerospace industry.
When the C919 has already started commercial flights, let’s take a look back a few months ago, on March 8, 2023 local time in Washington, D.C., USA, where the prototype of Japan’s first jet aircraft, the MRJ (the English name for the Three Zero Regional Jet, later renamed SpaceJet), was demolished by an excavator from the American brand Caterpillar. This is a regional airliner of the same class as China’s ARJ21.
Japan Mitsubishi invested a lot of money in research and development of the SpaceJet project, but there were a lot of technical problems in the process of research and development. Finally, the project’s research and development investment was seriously overspent. Due to the tight airspace in Japan and the narrow local market in Japan, it was necessary to obtain external market certification to recover the investment, so it chose to conduct a test flight in the United States. Finally, the COVID-19 that broke out in early 2020 gave the SpaceJet project a final blow, In May 2020, the project had already come to a standstill and was actually terminated.
On February 7, 2023, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Corporation of Japan announced that it would completely halt the research and development of the SpaceJet jet jet due to the lack of future development prospects. This marks the failure of Japan’s first domestically produced jet regional airliner after 15 years of twists and turns, significant research and development funding, and finally ending in failure.
Of course, we can’t help but have some questions. Japan was the world’s second largest economy for a long time, and now it is also the world’s third largest economy, with a population of more than 100 million people, a good level of industrial technology, and an important supplier of Boeing aircraft parts. Why can’t Japan produce a jet airliner? I think an article published by Reference News on February 18, 2023 titled “The Key Reason for the Development of” Folding Wings “in Japan’s Domestic” Large Aircraft “was very well summarized. The following is my summary of the article’s viewpoints. I have added my comments, viewpoints, and other background information.
1: Japan’s aviation equipment research and development capabilities are insufficient, and large-scale aerospace systems are high-tech
In fact, Japan is very lack of experience in developing jet airliner. China has also developed Yun 10 for some reason in its history. Before Japan’s MRJ project, Japan only developed and manufactured the twin engine turboprop engine passenger aircraft YS-11, which was successfully tested for the first time in 1962. Note that this is a low-speed propeller aircraft.
Note that compared with China, before the first commercial flight of C919, China has produced two airliner in volume: the Xinzhou 60 series propeller regional airliner and the ARJ21 jet regional airliner,
The first Xinzhou-60 aircraft was delivered to users in 2000, and the first ARJ21 aircraft was delivered to users in 2015,
By the end of May 2023, the cumulative delivery of both aircraft had exceeded 100, and both had been exported to foreign countries.
Therefore, it can be said that before the success of the C919, China had already had successful experience in the development of airliner.
The SpaceJet project is the second time that Japan has invested in the research and development of domestic airliners nearly half a century later. However, Japan underestimated the difficulty of the whole aircraft research and development. Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, which is responsible for the research and development of SpaceJet airliners, has long provided aviation parts for Boeing in the United States. Other Japanese enterprises are also Boeing’s parts suppliers. For example, about one-third of the parts of the Boeing 787 Dreamliner airliner are produced by Japanese enterprises,
However, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries lacked specialized technology and experience in the development of the entire aircraft, resulting in a series of problems during the development process. SpaceJet was delayed in delivery in 2009 due to the need for significant changes in the design of the fuselage and main wing. After successful flight tests, technical issues such as insufficient strength of the fuselage and main wing joint parts and the need to rearrange electronic equipment also arose.
According to statistics, there are about 900 design changes needed before and after SpaceJet, including modifications to design loads, changes related to various system designs, modifications to electrical system wiring, and even a few that need to be revisited in the basic design phase.
Multiple delays in delivery not only inflated the originally estimated 150 billion yen research and development costs several times, but also led to SpaceJet being overtaken by overseas companies in key performance aspects.
For example, the aircraft equipped with Pratt Whitney’s turbofan engine can improve the aircraft’s fuel efficiency by 20%, which is also one of the selling points of SpaceJet. However, due to several delays in research and development work, the target competitor Embraer’s E2 series also uses the same engine.
The above facts fully demonstrate that the understanding of the difficulty of aircraft research and development on the internet is not sufficient. Many people say that the C919 is an assembled product as proof, but in fact, it is extremely difficult for you to design something that can reach tens of tons after assembly and be able to fly safely and stably in the sky.
System level products are all assembled, but the design complexity and assembly difficulty of systems in different fields vary greatly. It is not possible to simply assemble and design system products in one field, and even extend them to another field.
We have always said that the C919 has independent intellectual property rights, which means its appearance and structural design cannot be copied from existing models of Airbus and Boeing. We must design it ourselves, not only to be able to fly, but also to fly stably, and to be quiet and fuel-efficient, which is high-tech.
Not only that, as a large system weighing tens of tons, the number of internal components can reach several million, and the length of various cables, optical cables, and other lines is long. The docking between various subsystems needs to be achieved through the design of the entire machine, which is also a very difficult task.
2: Due to insufficient self-developed capabilities, Mitsubishi has hired a large number of white technical experts to lead, resulting in poor internal communication and chaotic management
After four delays in delivery, in 2016, the then president of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Gong Yongjunyi, decided to hire a large number of foreign technical personnel.
Afterwards, there were significant changes within Mitsubishi Aircraft Company (a subsidiary of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, which was responsible for the design and development of SpaceJet), with English becoming the working language and foreign experts gradually taking control.
The main force of SpaceJet’s previous research and development was from Mitsubishi Heavy Industries’ Nagoya Aerospace Systems Production Institute, which trained many people to enter Mitsubishi Heavy Industries’ management team and had a strong sense of fame. They are dissatisfied with this new system led by foreign experts, coupled with language barriers, and communication on the front line is beginning to be impeded.
After Gong Yongjun promoted Alex Bellamy from Canada to Chief Development Officer in 2018, the situation became even more chaotic.
A supplier from Mitsubishi Aircraft Company recalled that the instructions given at the business negotiation meeting were all from foreigners. Even if it’s a sudden request for a design change, they don’t listen to others’ explanations, just say ‘you just do as you say’. The trust relationship between Nagoya Aerospace Systems and its suppliers, which has long been built, is no longer feasible at Mitsubishi Aircraft Company.
Gong Yongjunyi and Bellamy will communicate research and development progress and other information through chat tools, while Mitsubishi Heavy Industries’ current president, Kiyoshi Quanze, took office in April 2019 and gradually stopped sharing information with Bellamy by commanding the research and development team through other systems. The lack of communication and coordination between technical personnel and management further hinders the progress of research and development work.
Boeing, which has a long-term partnership with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, has suggested to Mitsubishi Aircraft that SpaceJet use Boeing’s cockpit, which not only accelerates development progress but also reduces training costs for pilots and mechanics. However, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries rejected this proposal. The evaluation of Mitsubishi Heavy Industry by outsiders is that it cannot be achieved on its own, but it is not good at leveraging external forces.
3: The domestic market in Japan is small, and in order to recover investment, one must obtain access to the US market, but they do not understand the rules of the North American market game
Unlike the airliner project in China, the aviation market in North America is the largest market for SpaceJet, which is larger than the local market in Japan. Therefore, it is necessary to obtain the airworthiness certificate of the United States, otherwise the investment cannot be recovered.
Mitsubishi Aircraft Company initially expected a demand for over 5000 regional jets with 70 to 100 seats over the next 20 years, with 40% of the demand coming from the North American market, mainly dominated by the United States.
From the shutdown of YS-11 in 1973 to the decision to commercialize MRJ (SpaceJet) in 2008, there was a gap of more than 30 years, which made the Ministry of Land, Resources and Transport of Japan lack experience in obtaining type certificate.
The type certificate is one of the airworthiness certificates that have been reviewed by the competent civil aviation authority to prove that the aircraft can fly safely. The review content includes design procedures such as drawings and calculations, manufacturing processes, quality management, and production capabilities, as well as performance and flight characteristics confirmed through prototype flight tests. If an aircraft wants to fly in a country, it must obtain the type certificate issued by the competent civil aviation authority of that country. Therefore, Japan needs to build a complete set of airworthiness certification system.
The Japanese Ministry of Land and Transport initially dispatched a dedicated team of only six people stationed at Nagoya Airport for the airworthiness certification work of MRJ. Because after YS-11, the Ministry of Land and Transport did not conduct airworthiness certification, and experts in this field were not found in the entire department.
By 2012, this team had expanded to 73 people, but it was still a “mixed army” consisting of seconded personnel from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency and the Ministry of Defense, as well as personnel from private enterprises and airlines. Everyone almost starts from scratch, exploring while working. Although they are full of ambition to put Japanese domestic jet airliners on the international stage, in fact, they have even less experience than companies.
Usually, when the fuselage is produced, it is judged as “unqualified” and then it is very difficult to push it down and start over. Aircraft manufacturers have been in close contact with the review department since the design phase, confirming with the review department while advancing design work. And the certification team of the Ministry of Land and Transport is also a bit confused and unclear about the interpretation of the standards. The rules of FAA “seem very strict, but also a bit ambiguous”, which was the feeling of many people participating in certification work at that time.
The rulemakers, competitors, and referees are all Americans, and even if we play a good game, we will be called a bad game. Faced with the European and American aviation management authorities that dominate the world’s aviation game rules, Japanese aviation industry professionals often feel powerless. In fact, it is also because Japanese people are not familiar with the airworthiness standards of the United States, so guiding aircraft development is not smooth.
There are also internal issues at the Nagoya Aerospace Systems Production Institute. This veteran aerospace company, founded in 1920, is filled with a bureaucratic style within, sometimes more bureaucratic than government departments, unlike its European and American counterparts who can quickly come up with solutions when problems arise.
Under the influence of such internal and external factors, even if Mitsubishi Aircraft Company later invited foreign experts familiar with FAA airworthiness certification, it failed to obtain the type certificate issued by FAA.
“In order to obtain the type certificate, we still need to invest hundreds of billions of yen in the future, but the profitability is very serious.” Mitsubishi Heavy Industries President Quan Zeqingci said at the press conference on February 7, 2023. It can be said that the failure to obtain the FAA type certificate is the most fundamental reason for the failure of the SpaceJet project.
From the words of the President of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, it can be understood that Japan’s lack of understanding and understanding of the FAA airworthiness certification in the United States has led to a sharp increase in cost investment, as designs that do not comply with certification regulations must be restarted.
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries also underestimated the restrictions on regional aircraft imposed by the United States in advance. This is a clause in the labor agreement between major American airlines and pilot unions. In order to prevent regional airlines operating regional routes from seizing the main routes of major airlines, this clause stipulates that regional airlines generally cannot have more than 76 seats and weight cannot exceed 39 tons. The standard number of seats of MRJ90, which is the most ordered MRJ series of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries in Chimerica, is 88, which is exactly the object of this clause. The terms were originally expected to be relaxed by the end of 2019, but they were not relaxed as scheduled. The uncertain prospect of relaxing the aforementioned restrictions has also led to the loss of market prospects for the SpaceJet project, which ultimately resulted in a dismal outcome.
I think the above reasons have been summarized very well, and I would like to share my own thoughts,
One is that military and civilian aviation are actually inseparable in a sense. Military aviation technology and research and development teams can largely lay a good foundation for civil aviation technology. Whether in Europe, the United States, or Russia, they have both made achievements in military aviation and civil aviation, and Airbus and Boeing have a large number of military industry businesses.
This is also the case for China. A large number of teams and suppliers involved in the research and development of C919 come from China’s military aviation research and development team. Companies under AVIC, such as Shenyang Aircraft, Chengdu Aircraft, Xifei, and Hafei, have all participated in the C919 project. As I have previously written in an article, experts from the Ukrainian military aviation field are also included in the research and development team of C919, In fact, Wu Guanghui, the chief designer of the C919, is the chief designer of the first generation of China’s famous aircraft, the Air Force Police 2000.
Japan’s failure in this regard is not unrelated to its long-term suppression of military aviation equipment research and development by the United States. After all, it is a defeated country, which has led to Japan not having sufficient reserves of excellent aviation talents.
The second aviation space technology is a cutting-edge industry, which has been monopolized by white countries such as the West+the Soviet Union/Russia for a long time. Both Japan and South Korea are relatively backward in this regard. China is obviously the only country that can compete with white countries, so don’t underestimate the high-tech content of the aviation space industry.
Those who say that C919 is loaded in groups obviously apply the experience of mature small electronic/mechanical products and other industries to the aviation and space industry. This is wrong. This is something that is very heavy and can fly in the sky, with high complexity and great difficulty. This is also the reason why industrial powers like Japan/South Korea are difficult to break through.
In fact, if we talk about the representative peak industrial products of various countries, aerospace industrial products are easy to be remembered, such as the Saturn V rocket of the United States, the Apollo lunar spacecraft, the Soviet Union’s Mir space station, Europe’s Airbus, and so on. In various science fiction movies, the scenes that best reflect human technological level are often air combat and spacecraft.
The third is the significance of maintaining a large local population and market
Among the reasons for the failure of Japan’s SpaceJet project, the lack of experts who understand the airworthiness system of the United States led to the inability to obtain the airworthiness certificate of the United States FAA, as well as the special provisions of the United States market to restrict regional airliners, which greatly led to the failure of Japanese airliner research and development. After all, 40% of the market is in the United States, and Japan’s local market is too narrow, plus the shortage of local airspace, Japan had to send SpaceJet to the United States for test flight, Obtain certification from the United States because relying solely on the domestic market in Japan cannot achieve investment returns.
If the United States wants to block the development of Japan’s airliner, does not issue a FAA airworthiness certificate, and does not relax the restrictions on regional airliners, it can strangle the development of Japan’s airliner in the cradle, and does not even need to use parts to block the neck.
However, China is obviously different. Even in extreme cases, China cannot obtain airworthiness certification from Europe and America. Relying on its domestic market is enough to support the civil aviation industry, without being constrained by the United States. This is clearly a congenital defect of Japan, which not only has a population of only over 100 million, but also a small land area and cannot support its own civil aviation industry.
I have also said before that with the advancement of human technology, the complexity of industrial products is increasing, and there is an increasing investment in many fields,
This will lead to technological breakthroughs becoming increasingly a game for big countries, and countries with small populations will find it increasingly difficult to participate in the research and development of these large-scale projects due to a lack of capital investment and a large enough market, or the hope of success will decrease.
This is undoubtedly beneficial for major countries like the United States and China. Only independent and autonomous powers can participate in the game on the highest stage.