Author: Rong ping source: official account: Rong Ping (id:rongping898) has been authorized to reprint
On the 16th, Biden’s first trip to the Middle East in his four-day term ended uneventfully.
Like his previous trip to Asia, Biden followed suit in the Middle East by concocting several concepts (such as i2u2), pulling a few small circles (the Middle East version of NATO), and intimidating Iran by the way. However, the core goal – seeking oil – was not successfully achieved as scheduled.
No, Biden just left the front foot, but the Saudi leadership only said that it was willing to increase its daily oil production by 1million barrels, and this does not necessarily mean that the actual oil production increased.
This undoubtedly poured a basin of cold water on Biden!
Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is defined by the United States as an “aggressor”, is visiting Iran today.
This confrontation in the Middle East, superimposed on the changes in the situation in the Russian Ukrainian battlefield, will make the US Russian battle more intense.
Biden’s visit to the Middle East has achieved little, which can only show that the momentum of the strong United States is getting worse day by day!
As we all know, Biden’s trip to the Middle East is to “seek oil” from Saudi Arabia, but the White House arranged it in a secretive way, putting on airs at one end and showing off his muscles:
First, their president, Joe Biden, published a signed article “why do I go to Saudi Arabia” in the Washington Post, saying that it was for the sake of “national strength and security”, fighting against “Russian aggression”, “competing with China in the best position” and “maintaining stability in important regions of the world”, which was completely Biden’s “tiger skin and flag raising” for this trip;
The first stop was Israel, the Middle East ally of the United States, then the West Bank of Palestine, and finally the core destination of the trip – Saudi Arabia. The meeting place was Jeddah, the western city of Saudi Arabia, rather than Riyadh, the capital.
It is worth noting that the Washington Post, which Biden chose to publish, is a newspaper with a column opened by Saudi journalist kasuji. Because of the killing of kasuji, Biden accused Saudi Arabia of being an “international pariah” during his presidential campaign, and has since formed a “beam” with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
Therefore, no matter who is unwilling to arrange a meeting in the Saudi capital, Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia is always a few more differences. I don’t know whether it was Saudi etiquette or intentional. Saudi Crown Prince Salman stepped on a flip flop when meeting Biden, and Biden’s expression was also intriguing.
Their “fist touching ceremony” was also criticized by the US media. The Washington Post pointed out that the gesture of fist touching meant a “mutually acceptable and intimate” relationship between the two, which ran counter to Biden’s previous commitment to turn Saudi Arabia into a “pariah”.
It can only be said that Biden’s trip to the Middle East was very embarrassing, with a hot face and a cold ass.
Why did Biden give up his next national honor to ask Saudi Arabia to increase oil, but he couldn’t get the result he wanted?
You should know that Saudi Arabia is a major contracting state of petrodollars and the mainstay of the establishment of dollar hegemony. However, after the outbreak of the war between Russia and Ukraine, the Saudi leadership has repeatedly refused to answer Biden’s phone calls. Biden’s personal visit this time is also indifferent. Why is Saudi Arabia pulling so hard?
Some people say that Biden has greatly hurt the feelings of the Saudi people before, and this reason is right or wrong.
Behind the national game, it is always interests that determine everything. The crown prince of Saudi Arabia dares to “make a show” in front of Biden. It is not only personal gratitude and resentment or an extreme word of politicians that can inspire it. It must be that Saudi Arabia has capital that is not attached to the United States. For example, it is not worried about selling oil, and it can flexibly move between big countries.
In short, Saudi Arabia has what the United States needs, but the United States may not be able to do what Saudi Arabia needs. Whether it is to improve the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Israel or to help Saudi Arabia deal with Iran, Biden just stays at the “mouth gun” level.
What is very contradictory is that Saudi Arabia and Iran are both OPEC member countries, and Russia is also among opec+. The United States wants to use a gun against Iran, which is an OPEC member country, and it is a very contradictory thing to ask Saudi Arabia, which is the largest OPEC oil producer, to increase production. Because OPEC and opec+ are integrated, they are an oil seller alliance, and whether to increase production will be discussed. Generally, it is difficult for a country to decide a large production increase plan. Now that the oil price is so high and opec+ is making a lot of money, how can it sell its own interests for the United States, which has extremely contradictory foreign policies?
Moreover, Saudi Arabia itself is also importing a large amount of discounted oil from Russia for domestic power generation, while it exports oil to earn a price difference. Such a good business, if there are no more attractive conditions in exchange, Saudi Arabia will definitely not follow the pace of the United States.
Since the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan, the main inducement of war in the Middle East is disappearing. Although the contradiction between religions is still fierce, Saudi Arabia, Israel and Iran do not deal with each other, and the United States can also use their contradiction to make an issue, it does not mean that threatening Iran can make Saudi Arabia increase production. If the Middle East war is provoked, the international oil price will only continue to rise. This is difficult for the United States, which is currently plagued by high inflation.
Therefore, now Biden is playing a trumped up punch in the Middle East. He originally wanted to muddy the Middle East. Unexpectedly, he was caught by Saudi Arabia, Iran and other countries and returned a “beautiful punch” to restore his original appearance.
The United States is now facing high inflation, and there is almost no good way except to raise interest rates aggressively. The abolition of the tariffs imposed on Chinese goods caused domestic “political parties” and “economic parties” to quarrel, and finally turned into a farce of “US $370billion tariff exemption, of which only US $10billion”. In order to ask Saudi Arabia to increase oil production, Biden also had to make a propaganda and defense at home to calm the dispute, saying that he was going to deal with China and Russia and maintain the security of the Middle East. The schedule was also arranged in a pinch, and finally he was “teased” by Saudi Arabia’s post-80s crown prince.
The radical interest rate hike will face greater interest payment pressure for the U.S. government, which is deeply trapped in a debt black hole. According to the estimates of CBO and CICC, the interest burden of the U.S. government will continue to rise. In 2022, the proportion of interest expenditure in GDP may rise to 2%, and in 2023, the proportion of interest expenditure will further rise to 2.8%. From 2024 to 2032, under high inflation, the proportion of interest expenditure will rise from 3.8% to 7%. The total GDP of the United States in 2021 is $23 trillion. Based on this calculation, the annual interest payment cost will be at least $460billion.
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For Biden, the discussion focusing on domestic contradictions will only lower his support rate, and he can only divert domestic attention through diplomatic actions. Therefore, we have seen his frequent visits abroad, from Europe to Asia, and then to the Middle East, in order to brush the so-called “hegemonic” sense of existence in the world, surround China and Russia in the form of many small circles, and draw big cakes for other countries everywhere.
Biden’s diplomatic methods can be said to be extremely clumsy and stereotyped. The Asia Pacific version of NATO and the Middle East version of NATO all want to exchange what the United States needs by giving the target country a “commitment” to military security. As everyone knows, the United States is not only unable to give them military security, but also the biggest threat to the security of these countries.
Take Israel and Saudi Arabia for example. Biden’s first statement during his visit to the Middle East was “not excluding the use of force to prevent Iran from possessing nuclear weapons”, but Biden’s remarks were a typical act of shifting contradictions and spouting.
First of all, the relationship between the United States and Iran is not to be broken.
As early as April 2021, the relevant parties to the Iran nuclear agreement began to restart negotiations in Vienna, the capital of Austria, and the eighth round of negotiations was launched on December 27. On June 28 this year, the EU coordinated Iran and the United States to conduct indirect negotiations in Doha, the capital of Qatar. Although the overall relationship between the two sides has not become better, it will not become worse.
Therefore, at this time, U.S. President Biden has no reason to destroy relations with Iran. He just wants to please the radicals in the United States. After all, the mid-term election is coming soon.
Secondly, the United States just wants to create an imaginary enemy in the Middle East and then control the Middle East.
In order to minimize oil prices, the U.S. government has shown an illusion that it can talk to the Iranian government about anything, but this is only an illusion. Now the oil price in the United States has fallen a little, and Biden’s extremely tough attitude can’t be closed immediately. His move seems to be to the outside world that Iran has no use for the United States, and it is best to die now. In addition to pleasing domestic radicals, he also wants to win over Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Borrowing the contradictions between Israel, Saudi Arabia and Iran, Biden just wants to establish Iran as their biggest imaginary enemy in the Middle East, and then control the Middle East. Because of this imaginary enemy, the United States can play up tension and coerce neighboring countries to hold on to the United States’ thighs. However, the Middle East countries do not seem to buy this old routine.
In the end, Biden’s move is more of a bluff, because the current U.S. government is no longer able to launch a war as easily as it used to. So far, NATO led by the United States has not dared to save Ukraine. The inflation rate in the United States has reached an alarming level, and now the United States is pinching its nose to ask Iran to increase oil production, and it simply does not want to use force.
As mentioned above, Iran and Saudi Arabia are both OPEC member countries. It is difficult for OPEC to reach an agreement on oil production by cracking down on Iran to please Saudi Arabia.
Now, Russian President Vladimir Putin is visiting Iran, and this confrontation with Biden in the Middle East is quite interesting. One wants to intervene in Iran’s nuclear possession by force, and the other wants to reach cooperation with Iran on weapons. The United States and Russia are fighting fiercely.
It is worth noting that on the 17th, the Turkish president’s office announced that Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan expected to hold a bilateral meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin when he planned to visit Iran from July 18 to 19. This means that Turkish President Erdogan will also visit Iran and meet with Putin.
Before Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Iran, Iranian locals photographed the Russian air force Il-76 transport plane landing at Tehran’s Mehrabad airport.
Moreover, according to the world route system, a total of three Russian Il-76 transport aircraft numbered ra-78838, ra-76669 and ra-78818 landed in Iran one after another.
? the picture of three Russian transport planes flying to Iran displayed in the world route tracking system
This means that the special plane of the Russian president is about to arrive in Iran, and Russia has delivered security equipment to Iran in advance. At the same time, according to the United States, “the Russian Il-76 transport plane arrived in Iran to transport armed drones back to Russia!” Earlier, it was reported that Russia had purchased a large number of armed drones from Iran.
Now the United States has begun to hype the export of armed drones from Iran to Russia, and it is also worried about the military cooperation between Russia and Iran. On July 17, U.S. national security adviser Sullivan said, “the United States has mastered the evidence of Iran’s military assistance to Russia. At present, Iran has planned to provide 300 armed drones to Russia. In return, Russia approved Iran to join the SCO. Not long ago, Iran has applied to join the BRICs countries.”
The United States is now worried that Turkey, Iran and Russia will sign an alliance treaty, reduce oil production, deploy nuclear weapons, and block the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Turkey in wartime.
Because Russia, Iran and Turkey, one of which is a major oil producer, and the other two, one controls the Turkish Strait and the other controls the Strait of Hormuz. Both turkey and Iran are major countries in the Middle East. The relations between the three countries and China are good. If there is further political cooperation, Europe, the United States, Japan and South Korea will not want to buy oil from the Middle East.
Therefore, it is unknown who will win or lose in the Middle East game between Biden and Putin, but it is clear that the United States’ push of Iran to Russia undoubtedly increases the possibility of Russia Iran continuing military cooperation, and Turkey, a speculator, will not show up for the time being.
Biden asked for oil but not, Putin asked for weapons but someone answered, which is the different treatment of “character”.
Of course, the “character” is just a joke, and the personal resentment that led to Saudi Arabia’s unfriendliness to Biden is only a superficial reason. The most important thing is that the countries in the Middle East have more choices under the wrestling of big powers.
If Biden did not want China and Russia to fill the “vacuum” in the Middle East when he went to the Middle East, then one of the purposes of Putin’s visit to Iran was to prevent the United States from interfering in and even regaining control of the Middle East.
China’s Ministry of foreign affairs also refuted the US’s statement of “preventing China and Russia from filling the vacuum in the Middle East”. The people of the Middle East are the masters of the Middle East, and the Middle East is not anyone’s backyard, let alone the so-called “vacuum”.
This time, US President Biden, who forbids China and Russia to “fill the vacuum in the Middle East”, left Saudi Arabia with “almost nothing”, but Americans’ speculation and concerns about the development of relations between Saudi Arabia and China and Russia are obviously still fermenting.
Last weekend, Saudi foreign minister Faisal and foreign minister Adel Jubail were interviewed by US media.
Facing the slightly tricky questions of the U.S. media on the relationship with China, Faisal opposed the view of treating China as an enemy. At the same time, he said that what the world needs for prosperity is cooperation rather than confrontation.
Jubail emphasized that “the conflict with China will cause damage to the world. We should ensure that there is no misunderstanding or miscalculation to avoid unexpected consequences. We believe that China’s integration into the global economic system is crucial to the stability of the system.”
It can be seen that at present, Saudi Arabia has the chips and capital to deal with major countries, and is no longer subject to the orders of the United States. It is also their must to improve relations with China and Russia.
At the end of the article, the author has something to say
The United States arbitrarily goes to the Middle East for oil, which is really the only one on this earth. But as we all know, the domestic contradictions in the United States have become so intense that it is difficult to reverse them. If the United States does not put down its airs, such as sincerely abolishing all tariffs imposed on Chinese goods, or exchanging favorable interest conditions with Saudi Arabia to increase oil production, then it is almost impossible to control high inflation by the Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hike alone!
Of course, for the U.S. emperor, it has little to do with us what ways and means it takes to achieve its goals. Moreover, the path dependence and source power of American hegemony also determine that it will take rogue means of coercion and inducement when achieving its goals. Therefore, Biden’s visit to the Middle East is doomed to “achieve nothing”. Because the U.S. hegemony has only face and the inside is slowly festering, now the countries in the Middle East can take advantage of their energy advantages to flexibly toss around in the wrestling among big powers, without having to obey the orders of the United States.
This time Biden left the Middle East with his front foot, and Putin will visit Iran with his rear foot. If opec+ is combined, it will really be enough for the United States to drink a pot. Now the world is no longer a world dominated by the United States. All countries have the right to choose their own roads and ways of getting along. The community of a shared future for mankind is the real road.