Author: brother Mao, this article is reproduced under the authorization of official account brother Mao’s vision (id:maogeshijue).
one
Saudi Arabia humiliates Biden
On June 14, White House press secretary Karin Jean Pierre announced that Biden would visit Israel, the West Bank and Saudi Arabia from July 13 to 16. This was Biden’s first visit to the Middle East during his term of office.
As the world knows, the main purpose of Biden’s visit to the Middle East is to urge Saudi Arabia to increase oil production, so as to suppress oil prices and cool the high fever of U.S. inflation.
Although, since Biden took office, the relationship with Saudi Arabia has not been good. Some time ago, the crown prince of Saudi Arabia even refused to answer Biden’s phone. But after all, the United States is the world’s number one power, and there are troops stationed in Saudi Arabia. Everyone felt that Biden himself would have no problem with Saudi Arabia this time.
Therefore, after the White House announced that Biden would visit Saudi Arabia, the international oil price fell all the way. Taking Brent oil price as an example, it fell all the way from $123 on June 14 to $94 on July 14 (note this time).
On July 13, Biden began his official visit to the Middle East. The first stop was Israel, and then the West Bank to meet with senior Palestinian officials (why the first stop was Israel and Palestine, we will talk later).
On July 15, Biden arrived in Saudi Arabia.
Then the painting style began to be weird.
The first city Biden arrived was Jeddah in western Saudi Arabia, not Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia! President Biden of the United States of America visited Saudi Arabia for the first time during his term of office… Even the capital was not allowed! What kind of hospitality is this?
Not only was the capital not allowed to enter, but only a member of the royal family with a low status and an official position as governor of Mecca province greeted President Biden at the airport.
In the past, when U.S. presidents visited Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia always sent the king and crown prince to the airport to meet them. Now the old king of Saudi Arabia has retired, and the crown prince is in power, so what is the crown prince doing?
Er, on the same day as Biden’s visit, the crown prince met the visiting Iraqi Prime Minister and the crown prince of Bahrain at the capital Riyadh airport.
You see, for Arab heads of state, they are invited to the capital, and for American presidents, they are not even allowed to enter the capital;
The crown prince personally greeted the heads of Arab countries, and the president of the United States casually arranged a governor to greet them;
Isn’t it obvious what signal is released?
It’s not over yet!
On the same day, the crown prince of Saudi Arabia still met with Biden, but there was a very interesting episode in this meeting. At the scene of the meeting, a reporter suddenly asked Biden: is Saudi Arabia still a Dalit?
Biden was so embarrassed by the sudden attack that he could only pretend not to hear it. At the other end of the conference table, the Saudi team (including the crown prince) was laughing wildly.
I guess this reporter’s question was inspired by Saudi Arabia to humiliate Biden, just like deliberately sending a governor to meet Biden at the airport.
On the same day, that is, July 15, although the details of Biden’s meeting with the crown prince have not been announced, the international oil price suddenly soared. Brent oil price rose by 2%, standing at $100 again, closing at $101.13.
Capital market investors have the sharpest sense of smell. The so-called insight. Through the details of Biden’s reception in Saudi Arabia, the market is no longer optimistic about Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia.
Sure enough, on July 16, Saudi Arabia’s official position came out. The crown prince of Saudi Arabia said that Saudi Arabia “has the ability” to increase its domestic crude oil production capacity to 13million barrels per day (at present, Saudi Arabia’s production capacity is 10million barrels per day), but it has no additional ability to continue to increase crude oil production for the time being.
This statement can be regarded as a model of language art.
Saudi Arabia has the ability to increase its oil production capacity by 3million barrels a day, but this is only “capable”! There is a gap between ability and actual action – for example, as I said, I have the ability to get up and run every day, but whether I can implement it or not is a huge question mark.
The crown prince of Saudi Arabia’s statement is actually a gesture of waiting for a price – I can indeed quickly increase the oil production capacity by 30%. The key is whether you can come up with the chips I want, Biden. Even if the chips are given large enough, the “no for the time being” that “but there is no additional capacity to continue to increase the crude oil production” is also negotiable.
However, the crown prince of Saudi Arabia’s flattery is obviously in vain.
two
Saudi American struggle
On July 17, when Biden was about to end his visit to Saudi Arabia, another reporter asked about the kasuji incident. Biden made it clear – as the president of the United States, I would not remain silent on human rights issues. I talked about this issue when I met with Salman Jr. (crown prince of Saudi Arabia). He said that he should not be responsible for this matter, and I think Salman Jr. should be responsible, I don’t regret the evaluation that Saudi Arabia should become a pariah on the world stage.
For Biden’s statement, the crown prince of Saudi Arabia chose to fight back directly. In front of Biden, Salman accused the United States of numerous human rights problems, such as the long-term abuse of prisoners and prisoners of war in Iraq and the long-term killing of local civilians in Iraq and Afghanistan.
In addition, the foreign minister of Saudi Arabia also said publicly in an interview with CNN that, as the crown prince said, it is not feasible for the United States to try to impose its own values and political system on other countries. Every country has its own values and should be respected.
If the two sides have different views, the oil negotiations will naturally be difficult to achieve results.
Sure enough, on July 17, Saudi officials said that Saudi Arabia could not decide whether to increase oil production by itself. This issue should be discussed by the OPEC Organization. They have been discussing whether to increase oil production with OPEC members including Russia.
Discuss with Russia whether to increase oil production?
I think Putin would rather put a knife in his chest than agree with OPEC to increase oil production.
Biden’s visit to the Middle East has two purposes. The economic goal is to increase oil production in Saudi Arabia, and the political goal is to establish a NATO like military alliance in the Middle East. The apparent imaginary enemy of this organization is Iran,
In fact, it is to exclude China and Russia from the Middle East.
(source: observer network)
Biden’s wishful thinking is to go to Israel first, win over Palestine to negotiate together, and cool down the tense Palestinian Israeli relations. After removing the biggest obstacle between Israel and Arab countries, he can pull Israel and the group of oil producing countries in the Middle East.
Therefore, Biden went to Israel on his first stop, generously offered $300million in aid to Palestine, and also made harsh remarks on Iran – he did not rule out using military means to solve the Iranian problem.
But the Palestinians stopped for two days after getting $300million. Biden left Israel with his front foot, and then the Palestinians and Israelis began to work again, which made Biden very embarrassed.
The most embarrassing thing is the reply of the crown prince of Saudi Arabia to Biden’s group building: if the United States wants to impose its own values on other countries, then the only partner of the United States is NATO.
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Of course, the meeting of big people will not mention some empty and illusory words. The “values” in Salman’s mouth actually refers to a famous event – the murder of kasuji, which is the biggest sticking point between Biden administration and Saudi Arabia at present.
Kasuji, a Saudi Associated Press reporter, was wanted by the Saudi government for repeatedly making statements against the Saudi government. On October 2, 2018, kasuji went to the Saudi consulate in Istanbul to work, and then disappeared mysteriously.
Then a series of recordings broke out in Turkey. In the released recordings, kasuji was brutally killed and mutilated, and the body fragments were thrown into the sewer of the Saudi consulate.
At that time, this incident caused a great uproar all over the world. The United States and Western media generally believed that this was the Saudi government who lured kasuji to the consulate and killed him.
Under great pressure, the Saudi government had to announce an investigation into the incident and punish a group of responsible persons.
However, the western media did not let go, thinking that the biggest mastermind of the incident was Saudi Crown Prince Salman Jr. Biden, who was still in opposition at that time, jumped to the top, claiming that if he came to power, he would sanction Saudi Arabia and make Saudi Arabia a “pariah of the international community”.
As a result, Biden really became president in 2020.
Human rights is the memorial archway of the Democratic Party and the core ideology of the mobilization base. Although Saudi Arabia is the most important ally and partner of the United States in the Middle East, the kasuji incident has tied Biden’s hands and feet at the ideological level.
So Biden was very indifferent to Saudi Arabia after he took office. He didn’t call, wechat, send messages, and his circle of friends never liked it. He didn’t invite Saudi Arabia to hold a democratic summit.
Indifference is enough. The key is that Biden also removed the Hussein armed forces from the terrorist list in order to fulfill his commitment to sanction Saudi Arabia, which means that the Hussein armed forces can freely facilitate overseas financing, which makes Saudi Arabia, which has repeatedly fought against the Hussein armed forces, angry?
In March, 2021, the Biden government made an unnecessary excuse of “persecuting the Uighurs” to attack our Xinjiang cotton, and then a large number of western multinational companies swarmed up and announced the ban on Xinjiang cotton.
From March 24 to 30, our foreign minister Wang Yi visited six countries in the Middle East. The crown prince of Saudi Arabia stated this:
Saudi Arabia firmly supports China’s legitimate position on issues related to Xinjiang and Hong Kong, opposes interference in China’s internal affairs under any pretext, and opposes individual forces’ provocation of China’s relations with the Islamic world.
With the “firm support” of Saudi Arabia, the leader of the Islamic world, the Islamic countries in the Middle East stood by China one after another, and finally formed a more funny situation – western countries accused China of violating the human rights of the Islamic nation, but the Islamic nation countries unified that this was slander.
This is actually Saudi Arabia’s revenge on Biden’s government for holding on to the kasuji incident.
three
Ashen Biden
Back now, maintaining high oil prices is in the interests of Saudi Arabia, and even Russia’s sending troops to Ukraine is in the interests of Saudi Arabia and even the entire OPEC member states. What was the global situation before the outbreak of the Russia Ukraine war?
It is the western world that carries the banner of environmental protection, engages in energy conservation and emission reduction, and engages in clean energy. This series of behaviors has greatly damaged the interests of OPEC member states, which mainly export fossil energy.
As a result, the war between Russia and Ukraine broke out, and international energy prices soared. Although one OPEC member state ostensibly remained neutral, who in fact did not applaud privately? Who doesn’t support Russia?
Therefore, when Russia unscrupulously uses energy weapons to manipulate the EU, the countries in the Middle East appear to be silent, but in fact, they are silently assisting.
When Russia threatened to cut off gas from the EU, the EU found Qatar and hoped that the latter would increase production to make up for the shortage after Russia cut off gas. As a result, Qatar refused cleanly – we have no ability to increase natural gas!
What about Saudi Arabia? Even better, it is clear that there is still 3million barrels / day of idle capacity in China, which can increase production and make a lot of money, but Saudi Arabia insists on leaving these idle capacity aside. Even Biden calls himself, Salman Jr. also openly refuses to answer.
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So, this Biden visit, why did Salman throw a wink that he has the “ability” to increase production by 3million barrels per day, and it is not impossible to even continue to increase production on this basis?
Because in addition to short-term and long-term oil interests, Salman Jr. has a huge heart disease.
This is the kasuji incident.
Biden’s government did not let go of the kasuji incident and kept saying that Salman Jr. was responsible for kasuji’s murder.
How to be responsible?
Only resign to thank the world.
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Once he loses power, what is the relationship between oil interests and Salman Jr?
Power always comes before interests.
Therefore, the Biden administration’s bite on the kasuji incident is a huge hidden worry for Salman Jr., whose governance has not been recognized by the U.S. authorities, and may step down at any time because of a change – you know, in the past, the practice of Saudi Arabia’s power inheritance was brother and brother, and Salman Jr.’s forced rise (taking over his father’s shift) was originally a behavior that broke the rules.
Therefore, for Salman, the most hope is to make a deal with Biden – the Biden government let go and announced that it agreed with the results of Saudi Arabia’s handling of the kashuji incident (found several scapegoats to deal with), and the crown prince was not responsible for kashuji’s murder.
If Biden administration can do this, Saudi Arabia, let alone increase oil production, can pay a large amount of money for protection (arms purchase).
But Biden also has his own troubles.
At present, Biden’s support rate has fallen to 30%, that is to say, at least 20% of the basic market has given up supporting Biden. Seeing that the mid-term elections are only a few months away, if the basic market is further lost, the Democratic Party will suffer an unprecedented defeat in the future mid-term elections, and both houses of Congress will be completely controlled by the Republican Party.
Democracy and human rights are the core ideologies of the Democratic Party. If this piece is also lost, and the crown prince of Saudi Arabia is traded with the kasuji incident for the sake of oil interests, it will inevitably lead to further substantial loss of basic stocks. Biden dares not take this risk at all——
Before Biden’s visit to the Middle East, human rights organizations in the United States directly asked Biden, will you trade human rights values for oil prices? Biden can only deny helplessly.
With this tone, Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia, the latter can give him a good look?
If you are not allowed to enter the capital, a governor will be arranged to pick you up and humiliate you. Even at the beginning of the meeting, a reporter will be arranged to challenge – (Biden) do you still think Saudi Arabia is a Dalit?
Biden was uncomfortable no matter how he answered this question.
The answer is no, then the country is about to turn upside down. The answer is yes, then there is no way to talk with Saudi Arabia later, so in all desperation, I can only pretend not to hear.
The crown prince of Saudi Arabia obviously wants to make a final effort to release the bait that “has the ability” to increase production by 3million barrels to see whether Biden will accept the move.
However, Biden’s response was disappointing. On the 17th, Biden reiterated that he still believed that the crown prince should be responsible for the murder of kasuji.
That’s bullshit!
Biden’s visit to the Middle East is inevitable.
There must be a point of knowledge here. In the early stage of the head of state’s largest boss’s visit, there must be a technical team to pave the way, including the schedule and the outcome of the negotiation. The technical team in the early stage must implement it in seven or eight ways. Finally, the boss comes forward and goes through a process. Even if there is a key link that has not been negotiated, the rest 99% of the things must be implemented before the big boss can visit.
Obviously, many things were not implemented in the early stage of Biden’s visit to the Middle East, and even the basic etiquette of the U.S. president not being able to enter the Saudi capital was not settled, let alone the key chips for negotiations with Saudi Arabia.
But even under such conditions, Biden still has to bite the bullet to go abroad – knowing that he can’t get the desired results, he still makes such a trip, and even knowing that Saudi Arabia will humiliate itself in terms of reception etiquette, with the purpose of nothing more than a political show:
You see, an old man in his seventies (Biden) traveled thousands of miles to deal with domestic inflation and endured humiliation in order to insist on trading without values. He has tried his best, and it is not his fault that things were not done well in the end.
It’s just a little sympathy for the future mid-term elections!
Of course, there is also a fig leaf on Biden’s visit (Antony Blinken’s team still worked), which is said to have signed 18 cooperation agreements with Saudi Arabia.
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Why?
Remember, the agreement without amount marking is nonsense!
The so-called 18 cooperation agreements do not even involve the amount of money, which is a piece of crap.
In addition, it must be emphasized that in the past, when U.S. presidents visited Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia used to offer more or less military purchase orders, but this time? Not a dime.
On July 18, the international oil price soared again. Brent crude oil soared by nearly 5%, standing at $105 – which is a little funny. Biden’s visit to the Middle East was aimed at reducing oil prices. What happened? Biden has just finished his visit to the Middle East. International oil prices rose instead of falling. This is the evaluation of Biden’s visit to the Middle East by international investors with real money and silver.
The funniest thing is not this. Biden made a very strong statement during his visit to the Middle East, saying that China and Russia were not allowed to fill the vacuum in the Middle East.
As a result, Biden’s coquettish operation not only failed to increase oil production, but also turned the idea of building a group into air, and even contained China and Russia.
First, Belarus and Iran are ready to join the SCO;
Then Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt are ready to join the BRICs organization.
Where is it that China and Russia are not allowed to fill the vacuum in the Middle East?
Is it clearly to further strengthen the influence of China and Russia in the Middle East?
In the past, netizens compiled the passages of Chuan Jianguo and Bai Zhenhua, which I still regard as a joke. Now, these passages may not be treated as jokes completely.
four
Greater challenges
Let’s compare the two recent presidents of the United States, which are actually two extremes.
Trump is a real villain, while Biden is probably a hypocrite.
As long as the words “I’m shameless” are pasted on my face, a real villain can act without scruples. To be honest, he can really do something.
Since taking office, Trump has basically fulfilled the political commitments that the United States gave priority to during the election campaign by reducing taxes, retreating from the group and building a wall. The attacks on China are also very decisive – trade war, scientific and technological war, financial war, blocking Huawei, disrupting Hong Kong. Wave after wave of attacks can be called vicious. If it were not for the sudden COVID-19 epidemic, Trump would probably be re elected.
Biden, on the other hand, stumbled under the signboard of a hypocrite. He was afraid of wolves before and tigers after. He was in power for more than a year, and was almost useless. His epidemic prevention was in a mess, and his economy was in a mess. He didn’t make any achievements in diplomacy to unite his allies to encircle China. If he lost the mid-term election in the future, Biden administration will completely become a lame duck who can do nothing.
Compared with Biden, Trump has caused us much more trouble in the past.
Therefore, in a sense, Biden’s four years in office are also a rare opportunity for us to breathe and develop. The real challenge in the future may be after the Republican Party wins the presidential election in 2024.
Write it at the end of the article.
Many people may wonder whether Saudi Arabia is not afraid of Biden’s fierce retaliation if it treats Biden hard?
Saudi Arabia is really not afraid.
There are several reasons.
First of all, Saudi Arabia also has contacts in American politics. The crown prince of Saudi Arabia has a deep relationship with the trump family, and trump is basically the flag figure of the Republican Party at present. In addition, Saudi Arabia has long offered large military purchase orders to the United States, which has deep ties with the United States military industry group.
Secondly, Saudi Arabia is an indispensable and important partner of the United States in the geopolitical territory of the Middle East and the petrodollar settlement system. Maintaining a long-term good relationship with Saudi Arabia is in the strategic interests of the United States. Therefore, if Biden wants to punish Saudi Arabia, not only the Republicans and military industrial groups will immediately oppose it, but also the establishment faction will strongly oppose it.
Most importantly, the US mid-term election is close at hand. According to the current situation, the Democratic Party is likely to lose the mid-term election. If it loses control of Congress, Biden will completely become a lame duck with nothing to do.
From the standpoint of Saudi Arabia, a lame duck president of the United States really doesn’t deserve to worry too much. It’s a big deal to endure another two years and wait for the Republican Party to make a comeback in 2024.
This article is reproduced under the authorization of official account brother Mao’s vision (id:maogeshijue).