Author: vertical and horizontal source: Zhonghua city (id:hqsycn)
Two days ago, during his attendance at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, President Tokaev of Kazakhstan said in front of Putin that he would not recognize the independence of Lugansk and Donetsk! He further stated that if this right of national self-determination is allowed, there will not be 193 countries on the earth, but 500-600 countries.
It might be understandable if other people or countries said this. Kazakhstan is a member of the collective security organization, and Russia just sent troops to help Kazakhstan quell the chaos at the beginning of the year
To help Tokayev stay in power, the color revolution in the West would have been successful had it not been for the rapid action of the Ji’an organization.
Therefore, it is reasonable to say that Kazakhstan today should speak with Russia and take the same position. There is no reason to disagree.
? video screenshot of Tokaev
Why did Tokaev not recognize the independence of Luton in the presence of Putin?
There are three reasons:
1. In itself, Tokayev is right. If the insiders of each country hold a referendum, they will be able to self-determination and independence. That’s enough. The world will not be in chaos.
Specifically, Kazakhstan has a population of more than 19 million and about 140 ethnic groups. If every ethnic group comes to “self-determination”, it will be impossible to play!
Safeguarding national unity and non division is one of the highest tasks of every country.
2. Kazakhstan also feels threatened
If only for the first reason above, Kazakhstan does not recognize Luton’s independence in its heart. Tokayev does not need to face Putin openly. Tokayev is so because it concerns Kazakhstan’s national interests and Kazakhstan also feels the danger.
Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan are all members of the former Soviet Union, and they are intertwined in territory and interests.
If the two states of Luton are recognized as independent today, Kharkov, zaporoze, Kherson, Nikolayev and Odessa will follow suit tomorrow.
Similarly, the four northern states of Kazakhstan are also inhabited by Russian people. If they follow the same example and hold a “referendum”, or self-determination into a country, or join Russia, how will Kazakhstan deal with itself? Obviously, Kazakhstan does not want this kind of thing to happen and must clearly oppose it.
In addition, some of Russia’s statements will also make neighboring countries feel uneasy. Putin said not long ago that Peter the great had expanded his territory, and now it is their turn (now Russians); Medvedev also said that Ukraine may no longer exist in two years… Kazakhstan will also think, will the same thing happen to Kazakhstan?
Russia also said earlier that it would review the legitimacy of Lithuania’s independence, that is, Lithuania’s independence from the Soviet Union may be illegal. It is important to know that Kazakhstan did not sign the belowezh forest agreement, which announced the disintegration of the Soviet Union. In other words, from a legal point of view, Kazakhstan is still a member of the Soviet Union. It would be even harder to say if Russia also approved a wave of independence legitimacy for Kazakhstan.
Therefore, what Russia said and did to Ukraine actually made Kazakhstan feel dangerous, so it is no wonder that Tokayev would sing a different tune in front of Putin.
3. Tokaev needs to bridge domestic differences
In Kazakhstan, there are pro Russian and pro Western factions. The pro Western faction was responsible for the color revolution at the beginning of the year.
Through a series of actions after the counter insurgency, Tokayev has gradually eliminated / elevated the influence of the deep-rooted former President Nazarbayev. Tokayev, who is firmly in power, has the capital to make further achievements.
As you know, Tokayev is the president of the whole Kazakh, not the president of any faction. Out of the necessity of bridging the domestic division, he should also try his best to change his image of “being supported by Russia” and “being pro Russian” and show his “independence”, so it is reasonable to confront Russia.
The above three points are the reasons why Tokayev disagreed with Putin in front of him. The second point is the main reason.