Author: Mingshu source: official account: Mingshu Zatan wechat ID: laomingdashu
I originally thought that after the fierce struggles and games between China and the United States over the past five or six years, the general Chinese should have a very clear understanding of Sino US Relations:
——This is a struggle between hegemony and anti hegemony;
——This is a struggle in which the United States has no bottom line to contain, suppress, encircle and slander China, triggering China to resolutely defend its own sovereignty, security and core interests of development;
——This is a western world, represented by the United States, trying to transform the non Western world in accordance with its own ideology and values, and triggered a struggle for China to firmly defend its right to choose its own political system, development path and values.
It is not difficult to understand these principles, as long as you have basic international political knowledge.
In the past few years, the Chinese government and the official media have repeatedly demonstrated these issues. However, a Chinese can only build a basic framework for a correct understanding and cognition of Sino US relations if he does not reject China’s official narrative first, and only if he sincerely believes in China’s official narrative from the facts and logic.
If a Chinese has always been rebellious against China’s official narrative, and at the same time, he is eager for and even thirsty to accept the narrative constantly disseminated by the western countries led by the United States, then he will never be able to establish a basic framework for correctly understanding and understanding Sino US relations.
At present, if one wants to correctly understand and understand Sino US relations, the first question to answer is: “why has Sino US relations come to this stage?”
In other words, who should be responsible for the deteriorating Sino US relations?
Only when we have a clear understanding of this issue can we understand why I have repeatedly said that for a long time to come, Sino US relations will only get worse and worse, and it is impossible to return to the era of cooperation in the past.
Over the past many years, there has been a “very popular” saying in China that the United States has comprehensively contained, suppressed, encircled and slandered China because China has abandoned the so-called strategy of “hiding its capacity and biding its time” and because some people in China shout “awesome, my country” every day.
But is that the case?
As long as China is “persistent”, will the United States not find that China’s strength is getting stronger and stronger? Will the United States not deal with China?
As long as China continues to swallow its anger with the United States and “does not fight back and scold back”, the United States will not contain China?
Let’s first review the history of Sino US exchanges.
Since the founding of new China in 1949, the United States has adopted an attitude of hostility, encirclement and blockade against new China from the perspective of the cold war. When the Korean War broke out in 1950, the United States disregarded China’s warnings, interfered in the internal affairs of the DPRK, and even crossed the 38th parallel and pressed directly into the Yalu River in an attempt to establish a new front from the northeast to strangle new China. The Chinese people’s volunteers entered the DPRK and fought bravely for three years. After making great sacrifices, they drove the US troops out of North Korea, thus laying a foundation for the division and rule of North and South Korea along the 38th parallel. This situation continues to the present.
The Korean War was the first face-to-face confrontation between new China and the United States. The United States, taking advantage of the victory of the Second World War and under the banner of the United Nations, waged a vicious war against China and the DPRK and the Soviet Union behind China and the DPRK for three years. From any angle, the United States did not win the war. This war also further worsened the relations between new China and the United States, and made the two sides more sharply antagonistic.
In the 1960s, China and the Soviet Union were at loggerheads, while the United States was in decline due to the mire of the Vietnam War. It was unable to cope with the global offensive of the Soviet Union. The United States saw a great strategic opportunity to unite China and resist the Soviet Union. This led to Kissinger’s secret visit to China in 1971 and Nixon’s visit to China in 1972, thus opening the door for China and the United States to move from sharp confrontation and confrontation to relaxation of relations. Until 1979, China and the United States formally established diplomatic relations.
Fundamentally speaking, the US strategy toward China, from containment to engagement, is still aimed at safeguarding the national interests of the United States. From the later historical development, Sino US reconciliation greatly changed the global geopolitical pattern at that time, and was also one of the important reasons why the United States finally won in the cold war.
While realizing reconciliation and pursuing strategic interests with China, the United States also has two open pursuits: first, it will bring China into the world market system dominated by the United States and open up a vast profit space for American multinational enterprises and capital; Second, through continuous contact with the United States, China will be “peaceful evolution”, and eventually China will become a “small partner”, a second-class country and a vassal state that follows the path of American capitalism and is obedient to the United States.
The whole 1980s can be described as the honeymoon period of Sino US relations. At that time, in order to unite with China and resist the Soviet Union, the United States not only opened the door to China in economic, trade and cultural exchanges, but also sold many weapons to China, including the famous Black Hawk helicopter.
However, in the late 1980s and early 1990s, the drastic changes in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe and the disintegration of the Soviet Union directly led to new changes in the global geopolitical pattern. From the perspective of China, the most direct change is that after the disappearance of the Soviet Union, the largest geopolitical enemy of the United States, the United States’ strategic dependence on China has rapidly decreased. Under the pretext of “freedom, democracy and human rights”, the United States has imposed sanctions on China. This is the first wave of deterioration in Sino US relations since the establishment of diplomatic relations.
Since then, Sino US relations have not been smooth. In 1995 and 1996, Lee Teng Hui put forward the “two-state theory”, which led to the outbreak of the third Taiwan Strait crisis. The United States eventually dispatched two aircraft carrier battle groups in the Taiwan Strait to prevent China’s reunification. In 1999, the United States led NATO bombed the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, which was strongly opposed by China and Russia. The United States finally bombed the Chinese Embassy in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, and three Chinese died at the hands of the Americans.
During this period, the positive energy for maintaining Sino US relations is that the continuously developing Chinese economy has brought great practical benefits to the United States, which is also the fundamental reason for pushing the Clinton administration to finally agree to China’s accession to the world trade organization. Of course, in order to persuade the Anti China faction in the United States, the Clinton administration also gave an argument that the Chinese people have never accepted and that now seems very arrogant and absurd: “the United States believes that China’s accession to the WTO will eventually lead China, like South Korea and other Asian countries, to the path of American style capitalism.”
Even so, when the Bush administration came to power in 2001, it immediately began to adjust its China strategy. Rumsfeld, then US Secretary of defense, directly stated that China was not a strategic partner of the United States, but a strategic competitor of the United States. On April 1 of that year, the United States sent an EP3 reconnaissance plane to conduct close in reconnaissance on China. It collided with the jian-8 fighter plane piloted by Chinese pilot Wang Wei. Wang Wei died unfortunately. The US plane made a hasty and forced landing at Lingshui airport in Hainan without the permission of the Chinese government. At that time, it was an event that shocked the world.
The “9 / 11” terrorist attack in 2001 was a major event that changed the phased trend of Sino US relations and the global geopolitical pattern in the first decade of the 21st century. To put it simply, after “9 / 11”, the national strategy of the United States shifted to global anti-terrorism, and George W. Bush, even encouraged by the neoconservatives, wanted to carry out the “democratic nation building plan” in the Middle East. China has provided moral and substantive support to the United States in combating terrorism, and Sino US relations have improved for a time. On August 8, 2008, at the opening ceremony of the Beijing Olympic Games, George W. Bush personally visited the scene. This seems so impossible today.
In 2009, the Obama administration came to power, accelerated the withdrawal of troops from the Middle East, and paid more attention to the Asia Pacific region. During this period, on the one hand, China and the United States had constant friction in the fields of economic, trade and political issues, but at the same time, they also maintained and even upgraded various channels for strategic and economic dialogue; On the other hand, the United States has launched the so-called “return to the Asia Pacific” and “Asia Pacific rebalancing” strategies, and the strategic collision between China and the United States in the Asia Pacific region has become increasingly obvious.
Therefore, the deterioration of Sino US relations did not start in 2013, nor did it start in 2016 when trump took office.
Under the impact of globalization, industries in the United States have moved out, the interests of the middle and lower classes have been damaged, and populist forces have risen. Trump took advantage of this populist sentiment to hold high the Anti China card, and ultimately directly set back Sino US relations by 20 to 30 years. Moreover, it was during the trump period that the US strategic community basically completed its withdrawal and withdrawal from the Middle East and began to shift its full strength to dealing with China. The trump administration defines China as the number one strategic competitor or even potential enemy of the United States, just as the Bush administration took office in 2001. It is only at this time that there is no second “9 / 11” incident that can prevent Sino US relations from moving towards confrontation.
By reviewing the development of the relationship between new China and the United States, we can clearly see that:
First, the United States has always held a low-level hostile attitude towards new China in terms of political system, ideology and values;
Second, the United States has adopted different strategies such as containment and engagement against China in different periods, but its fundamental purpose has never changed, that is, to safeguard the national interests of the United States;
Third, after the end of the cold war, the common strategic interests of China and the United States dropped sharply, and the momentum of Sino US relations’ relaxation was interrupted and began to move toward confrontation. However, the “9 / 11” incident increased the strategic interests of China and the United States again, and the intertwined economic and trade interests of China and the United States led to the relaxation of Sino US relations again. Until the second term of Obama and Trump came to power, Sino US relations returned to the era of confrontation, while Biden fully inherited them, And even upgraded Trump’s containment strategy against China.
When we understand the above basic facts, we will find that the deterioration and confrontation of Sino US relations is the active strategic choice of the United States, which has little to do with what China has done or not done.
When the threat of terrorist attacks faced by the United States itself drops, and the national strategy shifts from global anti-terrorism, transformation of the Middle East, to big power competition, it is inevitable that Sino US relations will deteriorate. It is inevitable that the United States will contain, encircle, slander and suppress China.
As far as the United States is concerned, the world has returned to the era of great power competition. The United States is trying to do everything possible to prevent China from reviving, so as to safeguard its global hegemony. Although China has repeatedly stressed that its own development is only for the sake of enabling the Chinese people to live a better life, the United States resolutely does not listen to it and firmly does not believe it. The political elites in the United States have determined that as long as China develops and China becomes stronger and stronger, China is a threat to the United States and the United States will contain China.
You said, how can China “hide its capacity and bide its time” to make the United States give up containing China?
Isn’t this “asking the tiger for its skin”?
What kind of wisdom and courage does a person need to have to make a tiger willingly peel off its own skin and give it to this person?
Isn’t this wishful thinking?
As the United States pursues a hegemonic policy, the contradictions between China and the United States are fundamental, structural and irreconcilable.
This can not be changed by China’s “hiding its capacity and biding its time” and strategic deception against the United States.
This can not be changed by China holding back and letting the United States take whatever it wants from China.
In this case, why do so many Chinese people, especially some middle and high-level intellectuals, fail to understand the essence of Sino US relations? Do you still have illusions about the United States?
First, they are very anxious about the deterioration of Sino US relations;
Second, they have been educated in the West for a long time, and their discourse system and mode of thinking have been seriously “Westernized”. In reality, they lack discrimination against western public opinion propaganda and “accept everything as it is”, so there is an internal psychological state of identifying with American narrative and resisting Chinese narrative;
Third, from the bottom of their hearts, they still have strong feelings of worshiping and fearing the United States, and they are still afraid that China will be killed by the United States. That is why they constantly fantasize about how to improve Sino US relations. In the final analysis, they lack the “four self-confidence”.
After understanding the history and latitude of the deterioration of Sino US relations, it is clear that the deterioration of Sino US relations is inevitable, and the Sino US relations will only get worse and worse, and will not get better. The reason is simple. From the perspective of big power competition, the United States will not give up its containment strategy against China. From the perspective of China, facing the containment of the United States, China will never give up pursuing its own development and become a vassal state of the United States, It is even more impossible for China to stop the more than 1.4 billion Chinese people from pursuing a better life.
American hegemonism has encountered the internal forces of the Chinese people in their pursuit of national independence, national prosperity and strength, and people’s happiness. A long-term and arduous struggle can not be avoided.
In fact, China very much hopes to improve Sino US relations. That is why China has always stressed that it hopes that Sino US relations can return to the track of healthy and stable development. China and the United States should establish a major country relationship of “mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and mutual benefit and win-win”. However, the United States simply does not listen to this. The United States does not want to respect China at all. The United States does not want to achieve mutual benefit and win-win with China. What the United States wants is that China loses and the United States wins. At present, the only thing that the United States is interested in is not to have a direct military conflict with China, so as to avoid the risk of nuclear war and the destruction of the earth. But even so, the United States will actively use Taiwan and Japan to fight a proxy war against China.
Once we have a thorough understanding of Sino US relations, we will understand that China hopes that Sino US relations will be good. However, good Sino US relations can not be changed by China’s painstaking persuasion, let alone by China’s pleading, and the United States will make a painful change.
In the game between China and the United States, China must talk to the United States in a language that the United States understands. What is the language that the United States understands? Very simple, “strength”. When China warned the United States not to cross the 38th parallel, MacArthur was extremely arrogant and did not pay attention to the warning of the new China. In the end, the United States suffered a great loss. But Americans have a long memory. During the Vietnam War, China once again warned the United States not to cross the 17th latitude line. At this time, the United States really listened. Throughout the Vietnam War, although the United States sent planes to bomb North Vietnam, the United States never dared to send ground troops into North Vietnam on a large scale.
This is the “language of strength”.
Today, in the face of the deteriorating Sino US relations, China can only choose to dare to fight and be good at fighting. It can only choose to use the “language of strength” to finally let the United States and China respect each other, coexist peacefully, and achieve mutual benefit and win-win results. There is no other way.
Isn’t this “seeking unity through struggle”?
For those Chinese who lack confidence in the Sino US game, I suggest that they read “on protracted war” well, and then read the history of the Anti Japanese War and the Korean war well. Of course, imperialism is very strong. How can it become imperialism if it is not strong? However, in the final analysis, imperialism is a paper tiger, because it is strong in the outside but weak in the inside. It is unpopular. Faced with internal and external problems, it can only fail in the end.
New China developed and grew in the process of fighting imperialism step by step. Now, if the US imperialists give us “hands-on training”, short-term pressure and suffering will be regarded as the sharpening of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. What’s so scary?
With regard to China US relations, I still adhere to the 16 character principle of “abandoning illusions, daring to struggle, guarding the bottom line, and watching the changes.”
I also hope that in the future, I won’t have to repeat these expositions again, because I have repeatedly explained the truth, and I will never wake a person who pretends to sleep.
The most important thing is that the vast majority of Chinese people can understand Sino US relations and establish a basic framework for understanding and understanding Sino US relations.
History is created by the broad masses of the people, not by a small number of people who accept the western discourse system, mode of thinking and narrative logic.
This is history itself.
P. S. finally, some people still believe that the US strangled Huawei because it violated the US sanctions against Iran. This is a naive beautification of the United States and a low-level slander of Huawei. I will not discuss it. I suggest those interested to look at the evolution of the US position on Huawei in the past decade or so. We may start with the investigation report on China related activities and ZTE issued by the intelligence committee of the US House of representatives in 2013. At that time, Huawei opened the door and welcomed the congressional investigation team of the United States. They saw a lot of Huawei’s internal materials. Finally, the United States decided that Huawei might threaten the national security of the United States on the charge of “fabricated”. It is very absurd that up to now, the United States and its global allies have not found any “real hammer” case of Huawei damaging the national security of these countries. All the reasons for hanging Huawei are that “Huawei may damage the national security of the United States”. It’s ridiculous, it’s ridiculous!