Author: vertical and horizontal source: planting flower city (id:hqsycn)
Pelosi may visit Taiwan in August. What is the purpose?
There should be two points:
One is for the mid-term elections
The mid-term election in the United States is coming soon, and the Democratic Party’s election situation is not good, so it needs to use the Taiwan issue to raise its own votes, which is well known, and this article will not go into detail.
Just add one point.
According to some Chinese in the United States, the middle-aged and elderly people over the age of 40 in the United States were born in the Cold War era and also experienced the “American Golden Age (peak) in the Clinton era after the victory of the cold war. Therefore, these people have a collective memory of the cold war.
When the United States wants to fight against socialist China and Russia, the defeated country in the cold war, they will have an inexplicable political correctness and support without reason.
Therefore, when the United States manipulates issues such as the Taiwan Strait and Russia, it will pick up a lot of votes for nothing.
? Pelosi video screenshot
Second, for the sake of the economy, it wants to pressure China to help the U.S. economy with blood transfusion
In the past, the United States harvested the world very successfully, and the routine is also very familiar. The dollar first expanded the foam, then punctured the foam, and the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to harvest the bottom of the bargain, so that the United States’ crisis of having enough to eat and drink was lifted.
Now, however, things are a little different.
Inflation in the United States remains high, and the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates several times, but inflation remains stubbornly high. Of course, the effect of interest rate hike may take some time to appear, and we need to continue to observe;
Many countries are de dollarization. Needless to say, Russia is the most prosperous country; Iran joined it with Russia not long ago; According to the previous news, some iron ores in Australia are also settled in RMB; Even the “third brother of India”, who always thought he was ok, thought he was ok, and was actively launching rupee settlement
Another key problem is that the United States does not have enough blood return. The United States has also attracted some blood. The euro and the yen have depreciated significantly, and the euro even staged a 1:1 spectacle against the dollar for the first time. However, Japan has long been sucked dry, and its intake from Europe is limited, making it more difficult for other countries to satisfy the appetite of the United States.
Only China can really make the United States feast, but it can’t. in terms of currency, the RMB is very strong.
In addition to bargain hunting and the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, the way for the United States to recover its blood also includes letting other countries buy U.S. Treasury bonds. However, the current situation is that more than 10 major overseas holders of U.S. Treasury bonds, such as China, Japan, Saudi Arabia, India, Australia, are selling U.S. Treasury bonds to varying degrees. Russia has long been selling only more than $2 billion, which is basically liquidation.
However, the United States does face difficulties and needs to return blood.
For example, the “three high diseases” are entangled, and high inflation, high debt and high foam are intertwined. If one of them is solved, the other two will worsen. Take inflation as an example, raising interest rates is conducive to curbing inflation, but it will worsen the stock market and bond market;
Now the United States is facing not only the “three highs” problem, but also more serious risks of “stagflation” and “economic recession”.
Another example is Biden’s “dilemma”. Abolishing tariffs on China is conducive to curbing inflation and gaining some votes, but it will be opposed by the U.S. Department of labor. Why is Dai Qi opposed to abolishing tariffs? She is the representative of the U.S. trade union. Biden is also afraid that the lack of support from the Department of labor will cause him to lose his votes; However, if tariffs on China are not abolished, the U.S. trade unions will not object, but high inflation is obviously not conducive to Biden’s election.
Under the situation that Biden and the United States are in trouble and need a lot of blood, but the effect of interest rate hike in the United States is not ideal, the global harvest effect is poor, the amount of blood is greatly insufficient, treasury bonds are sold off, and countries are de dollarized, the United States will naturally think of China, thinking of 2008, which was also the great crisis of the United States. It was China that led to the purchase of U.S. Treasury bonds, which caused other countries to rush to buy with confidence, It was China that spent trillions to successfully save the United States and help it tide over the crisis. Now, the United States has come round after round to China for high-level meetings, which is not without reason.
However, with the United States’ own cocoon of Sino US relations, under the current Sino US situation, it is impossible for Yellen, like Henry Paulson, to take the cheek to come to China to ask for China’s help. What the United States can do is to vainly try to achieve its goal by exerting pressure on China, and manipulating the Taiwan Strait issue may be one of its means.
However, the United States is no longer the former United States, and China is no longer the former China. No matter how the United States is a demon, China’s response is four words: stand ready!