Author: animal production team leader source: official account: animal production team
At the G7 meeting, European Union president von der Leyen announced that he supported price limits on Russian oil and natural gas. The EU has not announced the specific price limit, but Russia, which “can’t be killed, can’t be humiliated”, immediately counterattacked and announced the closure of Beixi line 1, completely cutting off the supply of Russian natural gas to the EU.
Many we media said that Russia’s counterattack was hard core, tough and strong.
However, few people have ever wondered why the EU dares to impose price restrictions on Russia? Isn’t the EU afraid of Russia cutting off its natural gas supply?
In this, we need to split it up. The EU does not agree on the degree of dependence on Russian natural gas. The EU is a large economic community, including 27 countries. Among these 27 countries, most of them are not highly dependent on Russian natural gas.
For example, the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, France and Monaco in Western Europe are very dependent on Russian natural gas.
Nuclear power accounts for 76% of France’s energy structure. France’s nuclear power can not only meet its own needs, but also be exported. It is the largest net exporter of electricity in Europe. Luxembourg is a small country with a small industrial scale, so the demand for natural gas is small. The Netherlands is the largest natural gas exporter in Europe. Russian natural gas is banned, and Dutch natural gas has become an important substitute.
Belgium is also a natural gas exporter within the EU.
In northern Europe, Norway is the largest natural gas producer. The natural gas output of Norway alone is sufficient to meet the natural gas demand of the five Nordic countries.
In southern Europe, Spain, Italy, Greece and Portugal also rely less on Russian natural gas, because they mainly import natural gas from Algeria and other countries in North Africa.
Central and Eastern European countries have a high dependence on Russian natural gas. The closer they are to Russia, the higher their dependence on Russian gas. Among them, Finland, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Hungary, Austria, Romania, Slovenia and Slovakia in Eastern Europe are all more than 75% dependent on Russian natural gas.
Among them, Finland and the Baltic countries rely on Russian natural gas for more than 90%. Poland, which regards Russia as the biggest threat, also relies on Russian natural gas as high as 55%.
Among these Eastern European countries, the attitude towards Russian natural gas is also quite different. For example, Hungary, which has no enmity with Russia, has reached a cooperation agreement with Russia alone to allow Russian natural gas to enter Hungary through Serbia, then Türkiye, under the situation that the European Union has banned Russian energy. The European Union has repeatedly strengthened sanctions against Russian natural gas, but Hungary has always been firmly opposed to it.
However, Finland, Poland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and other countries bordering Russia firmly do not want Russian natural gas. Because in history, these countries have all been invaded by Tsarist Russia and subjected to the high-pressure rule of the Soviet Union. Therefore, they would rather endure higher prices of Russian natural gas than get rid of Russian gas dependence.
Because these countries are located near the Baltic Sea, they started to build a natural gas pipeline as early as 2001 to connect the North Sea of Europe and import natural gas from Norway and Britain. In those years when there was cheap Russian gas, the construction of this pipeline was interrupted for a time, but it was restarted and repaired in 2016. From next year, the Poland Norway natural gas pipeline can transport 10 billion cubic meters per year, meeting 50% of Poland’s natural gas demand. Poland’s dependence on Russian natural gas is exactly 55%.
In addition, Poland is also a big coal country. When natural gas is insufficient, Polish coal power can also be used as a supplement. However, the EU’s “carbon neutrality” can no longer be achieved.
Germany is actually the country most affected by Russian gas. Because German industry is developed, the demand for energy is very large. Cheap Russian gas is not only related to the winter of Germany, but also to the industrial cost of Germany. If the energy cost of Germany rises sharply, it will only make the competitiveness of German manufacturing industry further decline or move out.
If we move out, where will the German manufacturing industry move? France can be selected closer, Spain and Italy can be selected farther, and the United States, China and ASEAN can be selected further. Anyway, staying in Germany will have to bear high energy costs.
This will greatly weaken the global competitiveness of German industry. However, within the EU system, Germany’s political voice is not enough. Germany is the leader of the EU economy, but in terms of political influence, France still has to look at it.
As can be seen from the above, the Eastern European countries bordering Russia are the most dependent on Russian natural gas, but they are also the EU countries with the most serious “Russian phobia”. Either they have prepared plan B to replace Russian gas long ago, or they would rather bear high prices of natural gas to get rid of Russian gas dependence. These EU countries, under the pressure of killing 1000 enemies and losing 800 themselves, also support the ban on Russian gas.
Because no one dares to say that after Russia finishes playing Ukraine, will it play itself next?
Central and Eastern European countries such as Hungary, Austria, Bulgaria and other countries with low historical resentments against Russia do not want to leave the cheap Russian gas. But the only EU country that really dares to go alone and continue to introduce cheap Russian gas is Hungary. Other central and Eastern European countries are more likely to follow the tide.
Western Europe and Northern Europe have abundant natural gas resources and are far away from Russia. They not only rely very little on Russian natural gas, but also are important competitors of Russian gas. Banning Russian natural gas is beneficial to them, and they strongly support it.
Natural gas in southern Europe mainly comes from North Africa and the Mediterranean region. In the case of the blockade of Russian gas, central and Eastern European countries such as Germany need to land from southern Europe if they want to import natural gas from North Africa or the Middle East. Southern European countries can also earn a passage fee, which is also in support of the blockade of Russian gas.
France and Germany are the two leading countries of the European Union. However, France is a nuclear power exporter, and France naturally supports the ban on Russian gas.
In other words, most EU countries support the ban on Russian gas. Germany is in the middle and the economic leader of the EU. If it wants to continue to occupy the core position in the EU, it has to follow the tide.
Many people say that the EU is the enemy. But in fact, the real enemy is Germany. The EU is not monolithic, and interests determine the bottom. The divergence of interests within the EU finally determines the bottom of the EU: banning Russian gas.
Russia’s original EU market is shared by Western Europe, northern Europe, North Africa, the Middle East and North America. Among them, the biggest economic beneficiaries are Western Europe and Northern Europe, because they have the most complete gas transmission pipelines recently. This is followed by liquefied natural gas in North Africa, the Middle East and North America. The liquefied natural gas is also first transported to Spain and the Netherlands for landing, then flows into the pipeline through the liquefied natural gas treatment stations in these countries, and is transported to central and Eastern European countries.
Türkiye has also become a marginal beneficiary. On the one hand, Türkiye sells arms to Ukraine; on the other hand, Türkiye has become a transit route for Russian gas to bypass Beixi line 1 and flow into southern Europe. It can collect the route and increase Erdogan’s bargaining chips against Putin.
When Vladimir Putin visited Türkiye, Erdogan left Vladimir Putin standing awkwardly in the conference hall for one minute.
Why is North date so united on sanctions against Russia? The root is that by imposing sanctions on Russia, they can all have a bite of meat or soup in the export market of Russian energy.
Russia has been forced to burn 4.34 million cubic meters of natural gas every day because it cannot sell and store natural gas.
For Russia, this is an extremely tragic and tragic struggle. From the perspective of the European Union, central and Eastern Europe rely too much on Russian natural gas. However, from the perspective of Russia, isn’t Russia’s natural gas export too dependent on the central and Eastern European markets?
If Russia wants to reduce its serious dependence on the EU market, it can only turn to the East in the future. Only the East can afford Russia’s huge export of cheap natural gas.
As the entry of Russian natural gas, Northeast China can also develop a large-scale energy industry by using Russian gas to solve the urban crisis and economic crisis caused by the near exhaustion of energy in Northeast China.