Author: Xusheng source: Xusheng (official account ID: lxlong20) has been reprinted with permission
It has been half a year since the outbreak of the Russian Ukrainian war, and both sides are very tired. Since the summer, Russia has sent out signals for peace talks on several occasions, but Zelensky did not take up the move and did not want peace talks. At the beginning of the war, the situation was just the opposite. Zelensky wanted peace talks, but Russia did not want to talk to him.
There is no fixed answer to the reason why zelenski does not want peace talks, but it can be analyzed from several angles.
From the perspective of the United States, peace talks are meaningless.
In China’s melon eating circle, many people think that Zelensky is just an actor, not a real politician. The United States is the behind the scenes boss of Ukraine.
After the end of the cold war, the United States carried out several color revolutions around Russia, of which Ukraine was the most successful.
In a sense, Ukraine is the United States. At the beginning, the color revolution in Ukraine was personally planned by Obama and Biden, and Ukraine is where Biden’s achievements lie.
The reason why the United States does not want the war in Ukraine to end is simple:
On the one hand, it can use war to consume Russia and bleed Russia’s weak economy;
On the other hand, we can use war to disrupt Western Europe and let its wealth and elites flow to North America;
As for the Ukrainians who died in the war, the United States neither cares nor cares.
So if the United States does not want the war to stop, Zelensky will not want peace talks. Even if we want to make peace talks, we can not come to any conclusion.
But on the other hand, even if the talks fail, Zelensky can go and talk; However, he didn’t even want to talk about it, so we need to dig from other aspects.
From Zelensky’s point of view, fighting is the choice.
Zelensky said that peace talks would be held only after the Russian troops withdrew first.
What this means is that we will resolutely not hold peace talks. Since ancient times, there has been no return arrow when the bow is drawn, and sending troops is no kidding. If Russia withdraws its troops in a muddle headed manner, the credibility of the Putin government will be subjected to overwhelming doubts.
For Zelensky, there was no fear at the beginning of the war. Especially after Russia withdrew its troops from Kiev, Zelensky has no real threat. Under such circumstances, if we persist in fighting, we can draw assistance from the West.
It is not Ukraine but other European countries that are most worried about Russia. They were all very frightened when they saw Russia attacking Ukraine, fearing that it would be their turn next. They ask themselves that in the face of Russia’s attack, no one can guarantee that they will be more tenacious than Ukraine. Therefore, under such circumstances, EU countries, whether active or passive, will assist Ukraine and support Zelensky.
If Zelensky goes to negotiate with Russia, the EU’s assistance will be greatly reduced. Especially considering Germany and France, they do not want the war to drag on indefinitely. Winter is coming, and Western Europe is counting on Russian energy for the winter. However, if Zelensky does not negotiate, Germany and France will not be able to negotiate with Russia due to politically correct pressure; If Zelensky decides to talk with Russia, Germany and France will seize the opportunity to follow up.
From within Ukraine, because of Russia’s attack, Zelensky’s support rate has increased unprecedentedly. If Zelensky can finally make Russia return without success, his historical position in Ukraine will be irreplaceable. Therefore, from the perspective of personal historical status and political future, Zelensky will not easily agree to peace talks with Russia.
From the Ukrainian angle, the broken jar broke.
The group that sacrifices the most in war is always civilians. The Ukrainians lost the most in the Ukrainian war.
One of the main reasons why Russia launched the Ukrainian war was that the decision-making level believed that Ukrainians would welcome the arrival of Russian troops. However, in fact, the Ukrainians who welcome the Russian army are only a very small number; Most Ukrainians resisted.
The reason why Ukraine has encountered the color revolution is not only the layout of the United States, but also the yearning of Ukrainians for the West.
In the process of Ukrainian resistance, East Ukraine and south Ukraine were basically subjected to the baptism of war. Under such circumstances, Ukraine, which is not rich in the first place, has suffered tragic damage.
Since the war has been very miserable, there is no point in further peace talks. Even if peace talks are held, Russia will not be able to help its post-war reconstruction. However, if we keep fighting, we can gain the support of the West.
Therefore, for many Ukrainians, the can has been broken anyway. If they simply fall to the bottom, they may be able to win Nirvana and rebirth. At the level of public opinion, Ukraine also does not support Zelensky’s peace talks with Russia at this stage.
From the Russian perspective, there is no real impetus for peace talks.
Although Russia has been releasing its intention for peace talks, it does not have the urgency for peace talks. In essence, Russia launched the war in Ukraine in order to recover the core assets (black land in Eastern Europe and Caspian Sea resource belt) lost during the disintegration of the Soviet Union.
If these things are not available on the battlefield, they are even less likely to be available at the negotiation table. If the core assets are not available, the armistice is meaningless. Russians are not very good at economic development. Decades after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, they still rely on arms and energy.
Even if the war stopped, the Russians did not know what to do. The reason why Russia keeps sending out peace talks signals is not that it wants to achieve anything with Ukraine, but that it wants to lure Germany and France from the EU to the negotiating table.
Zelensky also saw that Russia did not have a real impetus for peace talks, so he did not accept the olive branch thrown by Russia.
