Author: Xusheng source: Xusheng (official account id:lxlong20) has been reproduced with authorization
Yesterday, Johnson, the Prime Minister of the island country in the Atlantic Ocean, stepped down, and today Abe, the former Prime Minister of the island country in the Pacific Ocean, was shot. Two developed countries at both ends of the Eurasian continent have been in trouble one after another, giving people a sense of rain and wind.
01 suddenly
Let’s review Abe’s resume.
In 2006, when Abe was first elected, he was only 52 years old. He was the youngest Japanese prime minister after World War II. But he only worked for 366 days, so he resigned on the grounds of illness.
In 2012, Abe became Prime Minister of Japan for the second time. By November 2019, Abe broke the record of 2886 days in office of former Prime Minister guitaro.
As of August 24, 2020, Abe broke the record of 2798 consecutive days in office of former Prime Minister Rongzuo Sato, which was 2799 days. Every day after that, Abe is making new history.
Abe has served as Prime Minister for more than 3100 days, which is the only one in Japanese history.
——Abe is the most powerful prime minister in Japanese history after World War II. But now, he has been shot and fell to the ground.
The Japan Broadcasting Association (NHK) reported that former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was shot in the chest during a speech in Nara. Abe was still conscious when he got into the ambulance. At present, he has no vital signs.
According to Japan’s MBS news, at about 11:30 a.m., Shinzo Abe was shot while giving an open-air speech in Nara Prefecture, and his heart and lungs stopped.
Shinzo Abe was shot twice from the back. The killer used a pistol (previously reported as a shotgun) and is now under control. he
In his confession, he said that his motive for committing the crime “was not out of resentment against Abe’s political thought.”
The murderer’s name was takeiya Yamauchi, a former member of the Japanese Navy self defense force. The pistol disguised as a camera fooled the security guard. According to later videos, before Abe was shot, Takeshi Yamauchi ambushed in his right rear. When the speech came to an end, he also applauded with the crowd.
First of all, I don’t like most Japanese politicians, including Shinzo Abe, so please don’t throw the big hat of “Jingri” at me. But out of respect for the injured, there is no emotional catharsis here today, just a simple analysis of why Abe was shot.
There are three possibilities for the answer:
1. Accidental event
2. Factional struggle
3. American emperor conspiracy
Before answering this question, we need to understand Japanese assassin culture.
02 assassin culture
The modern history of Japan stems from the black boat incident in 1853: American Perry led the fleet to kick open the door of Japan, which shook the foundation of shogunate rule.
Taking advantage of the momentum, the elites of samofan and Changzhou fan carried out the revolution with the slogan of “respecting the king and fighting against the barbarians”, and became the backbone elites of the Meiji Restoration in Japan’s modern history. One of their means is to bribe frustrated Samurai for assassination.
In March, 1860, the shogunate leader, naobi Inoue, was beheaded by 18 samurai.
After the victory of the curtain down movement, the wind of assassination began to prevail, and countless elite backbones died of assassination. The most typical ones are Meiji Restoration chiefs okubolitone and ITO Bowen, who died in assassinations one after another.
Of course, ITO Bowen did not die at the hands of the Japanese, but was killed by North Korean an chonggen at Harbin railway station. But in the final analysis, it was Ito’s policy that prompted Japan to expand in East Asia, which led to Yasuhiro’s risky assassination.
Japan assassinated not only its own people, but also foreigners.
On the eve of the Sino Japanese War of 1894-1895, tsarist Russian crown prince Nikolai was assassinated by police Tsuda Sanzang during his visit to Japan.
After the Sino Japanese War of 1894-1895, Li Hongzhang went to Japan to talk about the Treaty of Shimonoseki, which was humiliating to the country, and was assassinated by Japanese ronins in the middle. It is said that it was precisely because Li Hongzhang was shot that Japan’s asking price was reduced from 300 million taels of silver to 200 million.
In the era of Emperor Hirohito, Japan ran on the road of militarism.
In 1921, the civilian Prime Minister Hara Kei was assassinated by the right wing for advocating the abolition of the headquarters of the general staff and trying to maintain friendly relations between Japan and China.
In 1930, Prime Minister Hamaguchi was assassinated for cutting part of the military budget.
In 1932, Prime Minister dog Yangyi was assassinated in his official residence.
Even within the Japanese army, the wind of assassination was very popular. In 1934, takeyama Nagata, the spiritual leader of the ruling faction and the confidant of Emperor Hirohito, was nailed to death on the door by the imperial sect in his office.
“Xiakeshang” is popular in the Japanese army, and there are basically assassinations every time.
In short, in the process of Japan’s modernization, the assassin culture is very rich. After World War II, under the castration of the United States, the trend of martial arts fell sharply, and the assassin culture also darkened.
Before Abe’s assassination, there had been no assassination of politicians in Japan for many years. After the war, the Abe family stood in Japan for decades, and his grandfather kishiuke was assassinated.
However, kishinsuke injured his leg and did not worry about his life.
In a sense, Abe’s shooting was the most serious assassination in Japan’s postwar history.
After talking about these histories, we can analyze the reason why Abe was shot.
03 three possibilities
The gourd eaters in China’s public opinion circles will first think of the conspiracy of the United States emperor when they encounter such fantastic events.
However, Abe’s shot may not be on the US emperor’s back. The reason why Abe can set a series of records in Japanese politics is the support of the US emperor. In Japan after World War II, the US emperor did not support it, and the prime minister could never continue.
Then there are two possibilities left: contingency or factional struggle.
The so-called accidental event is that many dissatisfied people in society who want to do great things will seek to make history by assassinating important people.
The assassination of Li Hongzhang and Nikolai in Japan in modern Japanese assassination history is a typical accidental event. At the beginning of Meiji Restoration, the assassination of okubuolitong can also be classified as an accidental event.
But most of the assassinations were the result of factional struggle. Especially in the era of Emperor Hirohito, the struggle between the military and politics, the struggle between the young and the old, and the struggle between the emperor and the ruling faction were all the soil for the birth of assassins.
So if Abe’s assassination is a factional struggle, who will benefit? At present, the beneficiaries are the emperor of Japan and the current first Fumio Kishida.
The first reason is that the Abe family has been deeply rooted in Japan for half a century. This is far from Kishida Fumio.
The second reason is that Abe has created a series of governance records in Japan and has been in control of Japan for a long time. On the contrary, the emperor of Japan did nothing worth mentioning shortly after he took office.
Abe’s influence in Japanese politics is everywhere. As long as he is still there, Fumio Kishida and the emperor will hardly become the ideal themselves. Most importantly, the news of Abe’s comeback has been circulating in the neighborhood.
If Abe is gone, the emperor and Kishida are the biggest beneficiaries, and their influence will increase significantly.
So can we finish here? Of course not.
For experienced gourd eaters, the most basic skill is to put aside the phenomenon and look at the essence.
Throughout the history of Japan, whether accidental assassination or factional struggle assassination, assassins have flourished in the historical archives of Japan’s reform, such as the Meiji Restoration era, such as the Sino Japanese War of 1894-1895, gambling on national luck, such as the era of militarism.
In other words, this time Abe was assassinated, Japan probably also reached the threshold of historical change.
If there is a historic change in Japan now, there are likely to be two situations.
Situation one, Japan is determined to stand on the American chariot and fight with China.
Situation 2: Japan once again gambled on its national fortune, trying every means to provoke a vicious fight between China and the United States, and reaping the benefits of its own.
The intersection of these two roads in Japan is the Taiwan Strait. If Japan really reaches the threshold of historical change, it is likely to make things through the Taiwan Strait. The Chinese people must be sober about this.
