Author: vertical and horizontal source: Zhonghua city (id:hqsycn)
As the confrontation between China and the United States intensifies, many people, including some experts, are beginning to worry about a military showdown between China and the United States.
So, will there be a military war between China and the United States?
The author’s personal view is that there is a possibility of military friction between China and the United States, the possibility of local military conflict is unlikely, and the possibility of a direct military showdown is even less likely.
The core reason is that the United States cannot afford the consequences.
We should know that the core purpose of war is to destroy our opponents and preserve ourselves. Without either of these two principles, war will be meaningless and cannot be carried out.
In the event of a military conflict between a big country like China and the United States, no one can afford nuclear weapons. They are all nuclear powers.
In general, the final result of the Sino US contest must be that both sides lose. Of course, it is not good for China, but the United States is more seriously injured.
Here is a good reference example, that is, the United Kingdom.
Before the first World War, in the face of the rise of Germany, Britain concentrated on dealing with Germany. After the first World War, Britain apparently won, but since then, the “strongest navy” in the world has changed hands, and the US Navy, which has lost its repression, has become the world leader. The French and Italian navies have occupied British territory in the Mediterranean, and the Japanese Navy has begun to dominate the Far East… Britain has lost half of its territory to defeat Germany. After World War II, Britain, which “won” again, completely lost all its money and handed over its hegemony to the United States.
The lessons of the past are at hand, and the United States cannot fail to understand them.
If China and the United States fight each other, the United States will no longer be able to control Japan and suppress Russia, the European Union and India. These objects will rise without obstacles. American hegemony will collapse completely and become a second-class country. The United States is absolutely unwilling to follow the example of Britain and become the second Britain.
Why does Putin dare to start the current Russia Ukraine war? He probably just figured out that the United States did not dare to end up in person. On the one hand, both the United States and Russia are nuclear powers. The United States is not stupid to fight with Russia for non core interests, resulting in the collapse of its hegemony or even mutual destruction; Second, after the US and Russia meet, the United States, which is both defeated, will no longer be able to contain China. It is very likely that Putin made accurate calculations about the United States before moving his hand.
The second reason is that China does not seek to challenge US hegemony, and the US “will lose in war”
China only wants peaceful development and realizes its desire to live a better life. It does not seek hegemony with the United States and has no intention of challenging the core interests of the United States. The main reason for the contradiction between China and the United States is that China’s rise has led to “harbouring its guilt” and is regarded as a threat by the United States.
The above characteristics determine that China will not conflict with the United States at other points in the world. If there is a conflict, the conflict will only be in East Asia and the Far East.
? Chinese Navy video screenshot
Within 2000 kilometers of China’s coastal area, the probability of survival of US ships is very small. In the future, it may not be able to stay within 4000 kilometers, and within 500 kilometers is a restricted area; This territory is beyond the strategic limit of the United States. The United States cannot win. Typical cases are the Korean War and the Vietnam War in the past… All these determine that if the United States fights with China in East Asia and the Far East, it will lose and have no chance of winning. Let alone the U.S. military’s arrogance all day.
The above two reasons determine that the possibility of a military showdown between China and the United States is very small.
There is a possibility of military friction, such as the “my ship was ordered to hit your ship” and the “Barents Sea and air scalpel” in the US Soviet hegemony period in the past. As for the local military conflict, it is also unlikely. The reason is that no one can predict whether the conflict will escalate in the event of war. As mature powers, China and the United States will control the emergence of conflicts.
In fact, there is no need to look at such analyses or reasons. As a nuclear power, China and the United States know that the possibility of direct conflict is very small.
There are two practical cases for reference. One is between India and Pakistan. In the early years, India and Pakistan fought back and forth, and several India Pakistan wars broke out. But when both sides have nuclear weapons, do you think they have large-scale wars? The slightest conflict will be controlled immediately. The other is the current Russian Ukrainian war. Do you think the United States dares to play in the end? Not at all.
Therefore, the conclusion is that there is a possibility of military friction between China and the United States, the possibility of local military conflict is unlikely, and the possibility of a direct military showdown is even less likely. However, it should be noted that the United States has copied the Ukrainian model (the war between Russia and Ukraine) to the Taiwan Strait, and it should also pay attention to the biological laboratories in the United States all over the world.
However, even with the above conclusions, we still can’t expect others to “not”, but use our strength to make others “dare not!”
In line with the principles of “Leniency in anticipating the enemy” and “thinking from the bottom line”, we must prepare enough powerful military forces to be able to fight and dare to fight before we can stop the war.
Only when China is ready to “go to war if it violates its core interests” will it contribute to peace!