Author: Kafka is busy source: outsider’s horizon (id:hooyar_380097485)
On the evening of the 22nd, Moody’s rating company hit a blow, and Moody’s suddenly attacked and rated country garden as “junk”.
Earlier on June 8, Fitch also included country garden’s rating in the negative watch list.
International rating companies, like the big four international accounting firms, are actually tools for imperialists to play financial hegemony.
Think about it. Before the outbreak of a major crisis, we outsiders had received all kinds of rumors, but the rating agencies, like a child, couldn’t see anything. After charging the rating fee, they still flattered and praised us.
PricewaterhouseCoopers certified public accountants was investigated by the Hong Kong Finance and Accounting Bureau because it issued an unqualified audit opinion on a certain university in 2020. Of course, although there was no following in the end, anyone with a little brain knows that the beautiful and bad 2020 financial report of a certain university is definitely problematic.
It is very simple. The 2trillion hole will certainly not be caused in one day or two. The problem has long existed. It is just dragging on. The hole is getting bigger and bigger, and finally it is simply rotten.
Xu’s leather belt blew every day. A few months ago, someone believed that he could really sell hengchi’s car in June. I’m so happy. He can’t even do real estate well. Do you believe he can do a good car?
You can dig huge holes in real estate. If you make a car, you may have a big hole.
However, before such enterprises were completely destroyed, the so-called high-profile international rating agencies and international auditing agencies in Hong Kong all stared at Mr. Xu with naive eyes and unconditionally believed in him.
Excuse me, what kind of professional level is this?
They say they are stupid. Even laymen can see the problem. International audit professionals, who have obtained the first-class license, boast everywhere that they don’t make false accounts, but can’t see it. Can’t so many accounting firms in our country do this? You still have to spend so much money. Ask the fool with the title of “foreign devil” to give you money? Isn’t that enough?
Well, if they really see it, but because Party A gives too much money, they shy away and issue an unqualified audit opinion. Excuse me, are there still few such ethical audit firms in China? It’s everywhere. Why do you have to find a devil to blackmail money?
If you can see through the bullies and bullshit of these ghosts, you will find that these so-called international professionals are unreliable in auditing and rating you at a high price.
But they are recognized by international financial institutions.
To put it bluntly, this is the voice of imperialist financial hegemony. Only their comments and suggestions count. In addition, no matter how reasonable what others say, it is not recognized.
So think about it from another angle. Since you have got such a brand that is designed to make money, and you still make a lot of money, are you obedient to those who give you the brand behind the scenes?
In 2009, Greece was suddenly badly rated by three rating agencies, so a European debt crisis was fermenting. The dollar credit of the United States, which had been questioned because of printing money, was set against the backdrop of Europe, which seemed to pull the crotch even more. The dollar index soared when printing money. Is that strange.
I have written about the Greek debt crisis before. In fact, from the very beginning, the crisis was packaged by Goldman Sachs and connived by Deutsche Bank. Once I saw Goldman Sachs, I knew it was not easy. People came here to bury the thunder. When it was time to use, the lead was pulled, and the three rating machines came into being, which blew up the euro.
In 2017, rating agencies also downgraded China’s sovereign rating. Isn’t that bullshit?
But you have to see, this is because trump wanted to pick a fight when he came to power, and then there was the trade war. This is a set of combined fists to defeat us. Of course, they failed in the end.
But if the opponent is not China, what about another country? Believe it or not, whoever comes will be destroyed, and will be directly destroyed by the short sellers in the international financial market.
So we might as well take a look at the downgrade of country garden.
China’s real estate enterprises didn’t have that much leverage at first. Later, they met many international investment banks in HK, one by one, to provide cheap and high-quality financial services.
Why are real estate companies willing to issue dollar bonds?
Of course, some bad guys use high interest dollar debt to transfer corporate assets.
However, more enterprises use dollar debt as a kind of credit debt, which can offset the capital when operating in enterprises. Domestic financial institutions have restrictions on the leverage of real estate expansion, but with the play of dollar debt, it is equivalent to putting another big lever.
For example, a house loan can only take 70% of the loan at most, and 30% of the down payment must be your own. Now some foreigners are very talkative. They give you dollars directly to make a down payment loan. Finally, you can buy a house with only 10% of the money, or even less.
If buyers across the country are encouraged by such high leverage, will house prices be fried soon?
Of course, it is too troublesome for foreign investors to give money to ordinary people, and it will be regulated by domestic financial policies, so they choose to package it in HK to give large-scale US dollar debt to private enterprises.
Some enterprises look at how easy it is to leverage. House prices are rising day by day. They feel that they have lost hundreds of millions of dollars without rushing in, so they rush into the pit in waves.
They forgot that they would have to pay them back sooner or later if they came out to mess around. Once they failed to pay them back, they would be able to use you as a weapon and play other tricks.
I still remember that at the beginning of an accident, the Secretary of state of the United States actually shouted publicly. What does this mean?
It has been said that there are three major foam in the world, the US stock market, the Japanese bond market and our housing market.
If a large enterprise is not forced to make a fool of itself, it is unnecessary to put the leather belt in the end, which has messed up the ecology of the national real estate market. Is it so hard to rescue the market now?
I am disgusted with those greedy real estate enterprises. I am also disgusted with the use of real estate to collect super land rent and squeeze the future of young people.
However, after decades of development in any industry, countless people have been supported in the whole system. After all, there is still a large demand for housing in such a large China. If you suddenly make a run, you will burst the bottom credit of the whole industry, and something big will happen.
The best solution is to stabilize the house price first, hold down the blind expansion of real estate companies, and then digest the stock a little bit, which takes time.
However, when people figured out where to attack our financial economy, they directly made a surprise run, and all the gods came together to pull out the pre buried US dollar debt and burst it, so it became a situation of competing for the first place.
Recently, everyone has been paying attention to the uncompleted residential flats in Zhengzhou. Once someone takes the lead in setting up rotten residential flats, those who compete to set up rotten residential flats first will emerge.
At present, there are only three large-scale private real estate enterprises that can carry the burden in China: Country Garden, Longhu and Midea real estate, which were selected as demonstration enterprises in May.
If you ask me whether the three real estate enterprises are good or not, it’s hard to say that any industry with a high debt ratio will be bad if it is deliberately run on debt.
After the storm of rongchuang, if the model private real estate enterprises selected by the regulators have an accident at this juncture, it is tantamount to directly confronting the regulators, and the negative emotions in the industry will ferment more severely.
Upstream and downstream, together with various buyers, how many people will be taken in?
If not handled properly, it may trigger a new round of crisis.
About this time, the rating agencies will go out together to achieve this effect.
In 2017, country garden actually had a round of crisis early. I remember that there was a time when fund brokers tossed country garden projects everywhere.
How to put it? Sometimes it’s good to have an accident early. For example, Wanda has no problem now.
Since the second half of 2017, the pace of country garden’s crazy expansion has slowed down. It is about busy solving internal problems.
Let’s take a look at the problems of rongchuang in a certain university. Many of them are caused by blind expansion after that. This is a blessing in disguise.
I have also seen many people on the Internet take out many lawsuits of country garden and talk about work stoppages and layoffs.
In fact, real estate is a liquidity problem of the whole industry. The debt will not change. It will only grow over time. As long as the sales stagnate, all enterprises will have problems.
Now let’s see who can carry it to the end.
So it’s really hard to say whether country garden will have a thunderstorm or not. As long as the periphery persistently attacks with negative news, so that those who intend to buy a house will be suspicious, and let those enterprises in the supply chain unite to press for debt, the thunderstorm will happen sooner or later.
It can only be said that some external forces are eager for the thunderstorm of China’s real estate system, for which they have used a lot of forces.
In order to protect the whole industry, it is necessary to solve a major problem as soon as possible. If it has been hanging for a long time, there will be more and more thunderstorms.