Original: Zhanhao source official account: Zhanhao wechat id:zhanhao668
There are two pieces of news about the war between Russia and Ukraine these two days, which are very heavy!
First news: the U.S. Embassy in Ukraine began to urge Americans in Ukraine to evacuate as soon as possible! According to media reports, the U.S. Embassy in Ukraine issued a security warning on the 14th local time, saying that the security situation in Ukraine continues to be unpredictable. The U.S. Embassy in Ukraine urged U.S. citizens not to go to Ukraine, and Americans in Ukraine should immediately use private transportation to leave Ukraine. According to the current situation, it is only a matter of time before the U.S. Embassy in Ukraine withdraws from the Ukrainian capital Kiev again.
Why is the US embassy in Ukraine suddenly nervous again? The reason is actually very simple. The Russian army has won a decisive victory in the war in Wudong, and the Ukrainian army has been unable to resist the advance of the Russian army.
Second message:
According to globegroup.com, on July 14, the Russian army launched several “caliber” cruise missiles from submarines in the Black Sea to attack the central Ukrainian city of Vinica. Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Konashenkov said on the 15th that the Russian high-precision sea based “caliber” missile hit the military officers’ club building in the garrison area of Vinica city on the 14th, destroying the participants in the meeting between the Ukrainian Air Force headquarters and foreign weapons suppliers. At that time, the Ukrainian Air Force headquarters was meeting with representatives of foreign weapons suppliers to discuss the transfer of a new batch of aircraft and lethal weapons to the Ukrainian army, as well as the maintenance of Ukrainian warplanes.
Ukraine has different views on the air raid. The Ukrainian government said in a statement that the Russian air raid destroyed a 9-story office building, a nearby residential building, a medical clinic, offices and surrounding shops. The Ministry of emergency services of Ukraine said that 23 people were killed, including 3 children, and more than 100 others were injured. Located in the southwest of Kiev, venica is one of the largest cities in Ukraine, with a population of about 370000. Ukrainian President Zelensky said in his regular video speech on the 14th that the air strike on Vinica was a “barbaric terrorist act” by Russia, and called on the international community to list Russia as a “terrorist state”.
These two pieces of news fully illustrate that the war in Wudong has basically reached the final stage. Once the war in Wudong has reached the final stage, it means that the combat effectiveness of the Ukrainian army has been completely damaged. Before, tens of thousands of elite troops of the Ukrainian army were basically in Wudong. Even if a small part of them are defeated now, there are basically few left. At present, Ukraine probably only has some elite troops near the capital Kiev, and some forces in individual cities such as Odessa, but there is no doubt that the overall strength has been seriously weakened.
Compared with Ukraine, Russia’s losses are generally small, and it is only a matter of time to continue to push westward. Otherwise, the U.S. Embassy will not urge Americans in Ukraine to leave quickly. The U.S. Embassy must be one of the people who know the battlefield best, and the United States is the provider of Ukrainian military intelligence. In fact, we also see that after the war between Russia and Ukraine was controlled by the Russian army in the last important town of eastern Ukraine, there seemed to be no major war. Instead, the Russian army began to carry out targeted clearance of the West.
Just like the second news, Zhanhao (wechat official account: Zhanhao) believes that the Russian announcement should be closer to the real situation, that is, Russian military submarine launched missiles hit the participants of the Ukrainian Air Force headquarters meeting with foreign weapons suppliers in the military officers’ club building of the garrison in Vinica city. For Russia, the quantity of precision guided weapons is not so abundant. Its goal is not to attack civilians, so it is unlikely to carry out military strikes against civilian facilities.
According to the news report, at least two points are explained: first, Russia’s intelligence system in Ukraine is still able to accurately guide and attack the participants who are negotiating with foreign weapon suppliers to purchase weapons on time. This is by no means what weapons can achieve, and it must be supported by sufficiently accurate intelligence; Second, Russia has freed up its hands and has the energy to accurately attack military targets in the central and western regions, which once again shows that the war in eastern Ukraine has basically ended and the westward push is under way.
A few days ago, the New York Times website published a columnist Thomas Friedman’s article entitled “the Ukrainian war is about to enter a dangerous new stage”. But frankly speaking, his understanding of the Russian Ukrainian war is still very backward. The Russian army has won the Donetsk and Lugansk regions in eastern Ukraine, and is advancing in Kharkov. In this case, he believes that the concentration of Russian troops in the eastern region has entered a new stage. In fact, Russia’s special military operations have begun to prepare for the third stage. Although the part of the second phase of the task about southern Ukraine has not been completed, the high probability part will be completed in the third phase.
However, one of the judgments in the article is accurate, that is, if the war drags on to winter, it will be more advantageous for Russia. The article believes that if it is delayed until winter, many families in EU countries may have to choose between heating and food. The article said that it is obvious that Putin is ready to continue to fight in Ukraine, hoping that the soaring prices of energy and food in Europe will eventually rupture the NATO alliance. His bet may be that if the average temperature in Europe is lower than ever, the average supply of global oil and gas is tighter than ever, the average price in Europe is higher, and power outages caused by energy shortages are more common, then the European members of NATO are likely to start to pressure Ukrainian President zellenski to reach an agreement with Russia – any agreement – as long as a truce can be reached.
The article believes that the summer is the best for NATO and Ukraine, so we should deal a heavy blow to the Russian army in the summer, and then force them to agree to a ceasefire, withdraw and create better conditions for Ukrainian grain exports.
In fact, from this article, we can see that the United States still does not recognize the nature of the war between Russia and Ukraine, thinking that Putin will withdraw because of some pressure. But in fact, Russia has prepared for eight years to ensure that it will not lose Ukraine. War is Russia’s bottom line and a last resort. If Ukraine abides by the new Minsk agreement, becomes a buffer between Russia and NATO, and remains neutral, then this war can be completely avoided. However, Ukraine chose to continue to embrace the West and follow the lead of the United States, which completely activated Putin’s eight-year preparation and triggered the war.
The consequence of this war is that Putin cannot stop the war, but wants to swallow up the whole or most of Ukraine to seek national security for Russia geographically. Putin has even been prepared to fight with NATO, which means that the Russian army has not really made efforts. In fact, the initial strategy of the Russian army was to occupy Kiev in the mode of Blitzkrieg after a sudden air attack, and then quickly control Ukraine. However, due to the Ukrainian army’s understanding of the Russian military’s tactics, it bombed the airport in Kiev early, which led to the Russian army being unable to deliver a large number of materials and personnel to Kiev in a short time, and finally had to change its tactics from the original strategy of whaling to cannibalism. But no matter which strategy, Putin’s goal of swallowing Ukraine remains unchanged.
From the perspective of the situation, as the New York Times article points out, winter is Putin’s friend. In fact, there are two aspects: first, after the cold weather, it is conducive to the rapid advance of the Russian army to the West; Second, the European energy demand is large in winter, and the intensification of contradictions within the EU is beneficial to Russia. Moreover, judging from the situation of the war itself, the Russian army also wanted to rest, so it did not launch a full-scale military attack.
However, the Russian army cannot stop. In fact, Putin has been preparing. Signing an order to allow Ukrainians to quickly obtain Russian nationality is one of the most important technical preparations. To put it bluntly, Putin still hopes to control Ukraine at the lowest cost, because after controlling Ukraine, he will have to confront a stronger NATO, and even fight with Poland, a member of NATO, in the west of Ukraine. These are all things Putin has to consider, so he can’t fight with all his strength now, but should reserve enough strength until the final decisive battle, which is far from this stage.
U.S. officials said that Putin currently did not have enough troops to break through and occupy Odessa port from eastern Ukraine in order to block Ukraine inland and strangle its economy. This statement is true, because the Russian army has also used more than 100000 troops, and it is still fighting in turn, recuperating while fighting. With the armed groups of Donetsk and Lugansk, there are only a total of more than 200000 troops. There is no doubt that the Russian army is far from having this strength, but Putin does not want to overdraw too much before advancing to the Midwest of Ukraine. Moreover, judging from the current situation, the Kremlin probably believes that it is not the best time to occupy Odessa, because there are still some international food problems to be solved.
However, when the Russian army is almost rested, the clean-up and recovery work of Wudong after the war is almost done, and the new progress will begin. From the current situation, Russia hopes to do some forward work first, such as fighting a dozen ammunition depots of the Ukrainian army, a dozen supply lines from the west to Ukraine, and then attack.
More importantly, the Ukrainian army is now facing difficulties in terms of soldiers, weapons and supplies. The elite of the Ukrainian army is basically finished. How can the Ukrainian army without sufficient training compete with the Russian army with long experience? The weapons given by the west to the Ukrainian army are getting less and less, and it seems to be a bottomless pit. How many countries will assist the Ukrainian army at any cost? Zelensky’s withdrawal of ambassadors from western countries shows that western countries are becoming more and more cautious about further assistance to Ukraine. Then, if the Russian army quickly expands its operations next, can the Ukrainian army withstand it? In particular, once Kiev is taken by the Russian army, everything will be basically over, and the current regime in Ukraine will soon fall.
In fact, Zelensky is also making arrangements. There are no technical obstacles for Poland to take over western Ukraine in the future. Once Russia takes Kiev, Zelensky will not be far from exile.
It won’t be long. The war is ahead! Russia, keep dragging the United States! Try to drag NATO to Eastern Europe! come on.