Will there be a major crisis in the Taiwan Strait next autumn?

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Original: Zhanhao source: official account: Zhanhao wechat ID: zhanhao668

I just read a piece of news, which means that there will be a major crisis in the Taiwan Strait in the autumn of 2023. It means that the people’s Liberation Army may liberate Taiwan next autumn!

Who said that? Said Qiu Jinyi, former vice chairman and Secretary General of the Taiwan Strait Exchange Foundation. He told the Hong Kong media about the current grim situation on both sides of the Strait:

The insensitivity of the Taiwan people is very likely to trigger a cross-strait crisis. He is most worried about two situations next autumn. One is that former US President trump is showing signs of making a comeback. In addition, on the Taiwan side, the DPP’s Lai Ching te may take over Tsai ing Wen. If both are highly likely to be elected in 2024, will the mainland resolve the Taiwan issue before it does? Or will it be solved later? This is a very big crisis point.


What did he mean by that? Zhanhao (wechat official account: Zhanhao) will translate it. What is Taiwan people’s insensitivity? To put it bluntly, the Taiwan people have no sense of the current cross-strait situation and are somewhat numb to the current tense cross-strait situation. Although the people’s Liberation Army has imposed a military blockade on Taiwan, which has greatly shocked the United States and the Taiwan authorities, it seems that the Taiwan people have no feelings.

I don’t feel much about this. There are good and bad sides. The good thing is that when the two sides of the Strait are reunified in the future, they will have no feelings. If the days pass, there will be no big waves. Therefore, I think that the issue of how to govern in the future can be eased. Taiwan only needs to arrest and sentence those diehard “Taiwan independence” elements, and other people only need to eat, drink and have fun; The bad side is what Qiu Jinyi, former vice chairman and Secretary General of the SEF, said. In the future, the Taiwan people will still elect the DPP to govern. In the future, once Lai Qingde, a diehard “Taiwan independence” element, takes over Tsai ing Wen’s post, there will be huge risks on both sides of the Strait.

Qiu Jinyi means that once Lai Qingde takes over Tsai ing Wen in 2024, and trump may make a comeback in 2024, the mainland may consider resolving the Taiwan issue in the autumn of 2023 ahead of schedule, which means that Taiwan will be directly reunified by force in the autumn of 2023.


Qiu Jinyi is worried that the paralyzed Taiwan people will be coerced by the DPP, and then “resist China” wholeheartedly. In the end, the two sides of the Strait will have to fight each other. Therefore, he is very worried about next autumn. Moreover, Qiu Jinyi also believes that if trump is elected the next US president, he will certainly play the “Taiwan card” crazily, which will prompt the mainland to solve the Taiwan issue sooner and faster.

Qiu Jinyi’s idea is that Taiwan should confess to the mainland that it does not follow the “Taiwan independence” line. It is just that the time for reunification has not yet arrived and the conditions are not ripe. Therefore, at this stage, everyone should sit down and talk, and then realize cross-strait reunification in stages and in order. Only in this way can Taiwan have room.

In fact, this line mentioned by Qiu Jinyi is exactly the line that our country hoped to follow before. There is a rumor that it can directly give “vice state” treatment. However, few politicians in Taiwan want to follow that line. The KMT has been “cheating on food and drink” for so many years. At the critical moment, Ma Ying Jeou dared not move forward, and finally let the “Taiwan independence” Democratic Progressive Party take power. As for the Democratic Progressive Party, its program is “Taiwan independence”. How can it change its program to unification?

Therefore, at least Qiu Jinyi’s idea seems impossible to realize, neither the Kuomintang nor the Democratic Progressive Party, and other parties do not have enough influence.

With regard to the reunification of Taiwan, Zhanhao has always held that there are two ways to achieve reunification: one is reunification by force, which directly uses military means to solve problems; The other is that under the continuous military and economic blockade, Taiwan finally abandons “Taiwan independence” and chooses reunification. As for everyone sitting down to talk about reunification at this stage, it is absolutely impossible. The guns are not on their heads. Who will talk about it? Who are you talking to?


Of course, as far as Taiwan is concerned, the more people like Qiu Jinyi, the less Taiwan society will suffer in the future. I also hope that all circles in Taiwan can think more about how to reunify. This will be beneficial to both sides of the Strait.

Then, let’s look back. Is it reasonable for Qiu Jinyi to say that there will be a major crisis next autumn?

In fact, according to Zhanhao (wechat official account: Zhanhao), when Pelosi really flew to Taiwan and landed, the PLA began the military action of military blockade on Taiwan Island, the nature of this matter has changed fundamentally. That is to say, since that time, reunification of Taiwan by force has been an option at any time. This is because the people’s Liberation Army will impose a military blockade on the island of Taiwan at any time as long as necessary; Of course, if necessary, the PLA’s military blockade and exercise will become a real battle for the reunification of Taiwan at any time.

In this case, Zhanhao has three basic judgments:

1? The liberation of Taiwan may happen at any time

When Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan broke the red line drawn by China for the United States, the PLA imposed a military blockade on Taiwan Island. During the blockade period, the United States aircraft carrier dared not approach, and kept circling around Japan. In fact, the results of this confrontation have shown that on the Taiwan issue, China will certainly dare to show its sword and will certainly show its sword, while the United States will not. At least this time, let alone show its sword, it will not dare to approach.

This trial of strength between China and the United States proves that China will take all measures at any time according to the needs of the situation, including military means to resolve the Taiwan issue. In the past, we relied on words, but now we rely on actions. The military means to liberate Taiwan have been put on the table.

The reason why it can happen at any time is not in the Chinese Mainland, but in the United States and the Taiwan authorities. If the United States and the Taiwan authorities provoke the bottom line of the Chinese Mainland, the war of reunifying Taiwan will break out at any time, and Taiwan will be liberated accordingly.

We should be aware of this situation which may happen at any time.


2? The liberation of Taiwan is a visible expectation

One of the important symbols of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation is the reunification of the motherland. If no country can achieve reunification, how can we talk about achieving rejuvenation? Therefore, Taiwan will never be absent from the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, which means that there is a clear expectation for the reunification of the motherland. You can infer that when will we realize the great rejuvenation of the nation? The reunification of Taiwan must have been completed before the rejuvenation of our common people. This is the conclusion from any perspective. Therefore, when we look at the Taiwan issue now, it is actually a question of when to liberate, because the expectations are clear, only the time is short, and the time will not be long.

3? There may be many surprises in Liberating Taiwan

There are still many people who lack expectations for the settlement of the Taiwan issue, and even think that it is far away. In Zhanhao’s view, this idea is obviously outdated and backward. What are we doing now? The more provocative the United States and Taiwan are, the stronger our measures and means will be. Then, as time goes on, when our net becomes tighter and tighter, the enemy’s struggle space will become smaller and smaller, and the time for unification will gradually mature. In the future, the liberation of Taiwan will probably happen in a flash, and it will happen suddenly.

If Taiwan is suddenly reunified, many unexpected things will happen, especially in Taiwan. We will wait and see. The performance of many countries, including the world, will surprise us! We’ll wait and see!

Of course, some people may ask again, will things really happen in the Taiwan Strait next autumn? To be precise again, in the future, there will be things at any time in the Taiwan Strait, and there may be reunification at any time! At least in two or three years, and at most in five or six years, the motherland will probably be reunified! Even if the time is a little longer, it will not go anywhere!

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