Original: duanhongbin source: official account: laoduan’s viewpoint
Real estate can be said to be the most important economic factor in China at present. We all know that the economy is in a recession, so whether we can revive the real estate is directly related to whether the economy can hit the bottom and rebound. There has always been a saying that real estate is a nightpot. Although everyone thinks it stinks, it must be used at the critical moment, because living people can’t be suffocated by urine.
Since March this year, various localities have issued various real estate rescue policies, many of which are very creative, such as:
1. Use the provident fund of the whole family to make a down payment for you;
2. Demolish your house and give you a room ticket valid for less than two years;
3. In the early stage of the new mortgage loan, only the interest but not the principal can be repaid;
4. The new indicator of civil servant assessment is whether the people in the jurisdiction can buy a house;
5. Agricultural products such as wheat, garlic and corn can be used to pay the down payment.
Today, Shanghai has made a big move. Fresh graduates of master’s degree will directly send you a registered permanent residence. Now Shanghai has a very wide range of registered permanent residence, and the following talents can directly settle down:
1. Doctoral graduates of any University (whether fresh or previous);
2. Fresh graduates of any university in Shanghai;
3. The world’s first-class university construction universities (42 nationwide) plus the fresh masters from the research institutes of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shanghai University of science and technology and Shanghai New York University;
4. World class discipline construction universities (95 nationwide): fresh Masters (only for construction disciplines);
5. Fresh graduates from six 985 universities in Shanghai and Beijing (Fudan, Jiaotong University, Tongji, China Normal University, Peking University, Tsinghua).
According to the above operation, it is estimated that 100000 more room tickets can be directly obtained in Shanghai this year, because people with local Hukou can buy a house directly without 5-year social security. You will be granted a hukou upon graduation, so you can immediately ask your family elders to help you pay the down payment.
It is often said that China’s stock market will always be 3000 points, while house prices will always rise. Now you should understand that the property market has just fallen a little. How many rescue policies have been issued from the central government to the local government? However, no matter how the stock market falls, new shares will still be issued. It can be seen that the property market is a son, and the stock market is a child.
So can this round of real estate rescue succeed? I think it will be a success. I have to worry about the overheated property market next year.
I talked about a bathing water model before, and I think it is very suitable for use here. For safety reasons, the old-fashioned water heater needs to be installed in the kitchen, but the bath is in the bathroom. You think the water is too cold, so you ask your family to turn the water heater on, but you still feel cold. Turn it on again. After so many times, you will be burned to death. Because turning the water heater on until you can feel that there is a process. For the bath water, it is only a dozen seconds, but for our country, it may be a few months.
Last year, it was thought that the property market was overheated, and the continuous turning off and turning on of hot water and cold water could have been stopped long ago. However, due to the lag of the policy effect, the operation went too far and killed the real estate directly. This year, it is a mirror operation, and the continuous turning off and turning on of cold water and hot water is also due to the lag of the policy effect. It is bound to go too far. So our policy has always been to go to extremes.
Seeing this, some people will say that real estate is doomed, because house prices have far exceeded the reasonable level. In fact, to understand the Chinese property market, you only need to understand supply and demand.
I used to like playing a computer game called “simulated city”. In the game “simulated city”, you, as the manager of the city, are responsible for everything in the city. You should build roads, water pipes and power plants, plan residential areas, industrial areas and business areas, and provide various supporting facilities for residential areas, such as primary schools, middle schools, hospitals, police stations and fire stations. In order to increase the land price, various landscape improvement projects should be built. If there is no money, either ask for bank loans or issue local bonds to raise money. The most difficult part is how to avoid bankruptcy, because you are too easy to go bankrupt in the game, and bankruptcy will lead to the failure of the game.
When you master the game, you can put yourself in the position of the local government to think about the problem, and you can understand why they do so.
Now here is an undeveloped city. The urban area is small and broken, surrounded by large tracts of farmland. The value of farmland is very low. If you can earn 1000 yuan per mu of land a year, you must change the nature of agricultural land if you, as the manager of this city, want to boost GDP and increase tax revenue. So you decided to take land and build a high-tech development zone.
After the establishment of the new area, you should plan the nature of the land. What proportion is residential land, what proportion is commercial land, and what proportion is industrial land. It is reasonable to say that these three types of land have a fixed proportion, but in order to pursue tax growth, you have granted too much industrial land and commercial land, and very little residential land.
Why did you do this? The reason is very simple. Industrial and commercial land can directly drive GDP and bring about tax growth, which can immediately improve your financial situation, while residential land can not. What’s more, residential land also needs various supporting facilities, such as primary schools, middle schools, hospitals, police stations, fire departments, museums, theatres and parks. These are all spending projects. When your financial situation is poor, you don’t have the money to do these things.
But there is a problem here. If the industrial land is approved too much and the production capacity increases greatly, how can you ensure that the goods you produce can be sold? It’s very simple, as long as it can be exported in large quantities. This is the secret of China’s economic take-off in the past few decades. After China’s accession to the WTO, its exports have grown rapidly.
Soon the problem came out. You have built so many industrial areas and built so many factories, but the employees need to have a house to live in, because the employees are individuals, they need to get married and have children, and they want to live a high-quality life. There is a contradiction between too much population and too little residential land. According to the simple relationship between supply and demand, house prices must soar.
It was said that since there is too little residential land, it is not enough to batch a little more? The idea is very good, but China also has useful indicators. The land use indicators of each city are very limited, and there are not as many as you want.
At first, the soaring house price was not the goal of the government, but the inevitable result of his pursuit of tax growth. Because he approved too much industrial and commercial land and too little residential land. With so many factories and companies, employees must want to improve their quality of life after making money. When he bought a house, he found that too many people robbed too few houses, and it was doomed that some people could not afford it, so the house price could only rise.
How does the planned economy solve the supply shortage? The answer is to queue up.
How does the market economy solve the shortage of supply? The answer is price increase.
There is only one reason for the price increase, that is, the supply is insufficient.
At this time, the local government suddenly found that selling land was a better way to earn income. Once he discovered this secret, he was less eager to increase residential land. Instead, he sold it slowly with a rhythm, artificially causing the land price to soar. When the land price rises, it will inevitably be transmitted to the house price. When the house price rises, it will drive the land price to rise. The land finance is played more and more by the local government.
Many people don’t understand why house prices can’t be held down and the stock market can’t be held up. But in fact, as long as you understand the relationship between supply and demand, everything will suddenly open up.
The reason why the stock market can not be supported is that the CSRC has been trying to increase the supply, for example, desperately issuing IPOs and convertible bonds. Although he has always said that he wants to maintain stability, in fact, he has been increasing the supply.
The reason why house prices can not be kept down is that although the government has been verbally saying that it will suppress house prices, it has stuck to the land use indicators. Originally, there was little construction land, and he took a large number of construction land for Industry and commerce, leaving less for housing. You can only buy the small amount of residential land from him. The only policy that can really reduce house prices is to supply a large amount of residential land, which he will never do. You should remember that any property market crackdown policy that cannot increase supply is a scam.
The biggest problem of China’s economy is imbalance. The proportion of industrial land is high, and the suppression of residential land will inevitably lead to a surge in house prices, which will inevitably suppress consumption. Chinese people can not afford to buy their own goods, so they can only rely on exports to consume excess capacity.
If you want to stimulate domestic demand, you must hold down house prices. If you want to hold down house prices, you must increase the area of residential land and reduce industrial land. Or you can understand that as long as the Chinese continue to support the so-called “real economy” crazily, there will always be a shortage of housing, because land indicators are given to industry.
China’s land system is all copied from Hong Kong. What is the current housing price in Hong Kong? The vast majority of Hong Kong people live in pigeon cages. Is the land area of Hong Kong too small? Of course not. The land development rate in Hong Kong is only 23.7%. The land used for residential purposes only accounts for 6.8% of the total land area. Hong Kong also has a large number of country parks, which are so abandoned and undeveloped that they are called “protecting the environment”.
A lot of idle land is left unused, and the high land price is speculated desperately. This is the way that developers and the government work together to harvest the common people. We have all learned this method. Huangqifan once said a group of figures:
Of the 6million mu of land supply in China each year, one third is for construction in rural areas, and only two-thirds, about 4million mu, are actually used in cities.
About half of them are used for urban infrastructure construction, such as roads, greening and municipal construction. The rest is mainly industrial land, accounting for less than 30%. Our government is trying to attract investment, so industrial land is particularly cheap. When large companies set up factories, they almost give away the land for nothing.
How much land is left that can be used to build houses for ordinary people? Only 10%. This proportion is extremely unbalanced. The common people’s housing land generally accounts for 25% of all the land in the city, while we only account for 10%. It is half less than the normal supply. Do you think the land price can not soar?
Originally, residential land has been very scarce, and the supply of first tier cities is even less. Because the government wants to control the size of the first tier population, it deliberately reduces the scale of land supply.
There is also a “urination theory” in China, which says that real estate is the government’s urination.
The “urination theory” has a long history. It is said that duyuesheng, the leader of the Green Gang, was the first to put forward the urination theory. He said that the Green Gang was a urinal in Chiang Kai Shek’s eyes. When he was in a hurry to urinate, he took it out and put it in the most corner. Because Chiang Kai Shek didn’t want to do many dirty jobs, but someone had to do them, so he let the hooligans do them. But he also knew that the hooligans had a bad reputation, so he ignored them when he was free. Duyuesheng finally found out that he was a urinal in the old man’s eyes.
The local government’s attitude towards real estate is to urinate. Usually, they always dislike him and don’t want to pay attention to him. They also threaten to suppress him every day. However, you always have to urinate in a hurry. At that time, you must take it out for use. So, when is it urgent to urinate? I think it’s easy to answer this question, that is, when there are a lot of land auctions.
I once made such an example. The local government threatened to suppress the property market, just as the girls threatened to lose weight. When do girls shout to lose weight? According to my observation, every time when she is full, she says she wants to lose weight.
In the same way, when the local government sold land briskly, he issued a notice every day to suppress the property market. If he earns a lot from the land transfer fees, he will continue to regulate blindly in order to make the top happy. When the land cannot be sold, the income of real gold and silver will drop sharply, and the financial pressure will force him to relax the regulation and encourage you to buy a house.
When you think about it, has it always been this routine? There is nothing new under the sun.