With the rise of China’s new energy vehicles, Japan’s 5.42 million high paying jobs may be gone!

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Original: an Aoki source official account: distant Aoki has been authorized to reprint

In all industrial sectors, the automobile manufacturing industry is the category that radiates the most and drives the upstream and downstream industries the most, so it has the reputation of industrial crown.

Any country with developed automobile manufacturing industry must be an industrial power.

It is impossible for an industrial weak country to have a developed automobile manufacturing industry. If it is born, it will no longer be an industrial weak country.

The developed automobile manufacturing industry will also bring a lot of jobs and high salaries to the host country.

The German automobile manufacturing industry gives the assembly line team leader an annual salary of about 400000 yuan, and only needs to work 35 hours a week. The salary of ordinary workers is about 300000 yuan.

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In Japan, the fuel vehicle industry chain provides a total of 5.42 million jobs, with an average annual salary of 4.56 million yen, about 301000 yuan.

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It would be great if these high paying jobs could be given to the Chinese.

In the field of traditional fuel vehicles, China has failed after years of efforts.

State owned enterprises, encourage private self-development, engage in joint ventures, and exchange the market for technology. We use all kinds of tricks.

But more than 30 years later, China has never been successful in the field of fuel vehicles.

China’s exchange of market for technology did not result in technology at all, and its core technologies were all in the hands of foreign investors.

China has learned all the shell making technology. From the appearance to the interior, Chinese factories make it very well, but the core technologies such as engine and gearbox have not been.

But when you buy a fuel car, will you first look at the interior? The first thing to look at is the engine. The symbol of a luxury car is the engine.

First of all, if the engine wins, it can be compared with the interior.

However, in the field of engines, it is extremely difficult to break through the strong technical barriers formed by the European and American calendars over a century.

Because the fuel engine technology can not be broken through, China has always been unable to build high-end fuel vehicles, and thus can not get the bulk of profits.

Without core technology, even joint-venture cars, China cannot form its own brand.

Many people buy brilliance BMW, the first thing is to deduct these four words. Some people say that if you deduct one word, the car can appreciate 10000 yuan.

The brand value is also excellent.

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The brand value of a joint venture automobile factory without a patent, even if it has a title authorization, will be recognized as negative by consumers.

But all this has been completely changed now.

Around 2000, it became a world consensus to carry out an energy revolution in the automotive field, and automobile manufacturers all over the world began to study different new energy routes.

American automakers are betting on electric vehicle routes, while Japanese automakers are betting on hydrogen vehicle routes.

Electric vehicles are safe and reliable, with stable performance, but short mileage and long charging time.

Hydrogen cars are easy to inflate and can easily replace oil, but they are poor in safety and expensive.

It is difficult to judge which of these two routes is better or worse.

However, in recent years, lithium battery technology has made a breakthrough, the mileage has increased year by year, and the charging speed is faster and faster.

The performance of new products launched by battery manufacturers every year was incredible and unimaginable two years ago.

In June 2022, China Ningde times launched the latest Kirin battery, with a range of 1000 kilometers and a fast charging time of 10 minutes.

Two years ago, anyone who dared to mention this data as a target would be regarded as bragging, but now it has become a reality, and technological progress continues without any sign of stopping.

Worldwide, it is a foregone conclusion that the electric vehicle route has won a great victory.

In June 2022, Toyota Motor Corporation of Japan announced that it would shut down its hydrogen energy vehicle plant, stop investing in hydrogen energy technology, and transform its research and development of electric vehicles.

In the field of hydrogen fuel cell, Toyota has 6000 patents, accounting for half of the global hydrogen fuel cell patents. It has been invested for more than 20 years. Until now, it has lost a lot, and all the investment can be considered to have been wasted.

In recent years, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China have soared every year, doubling every year.

In 2021, China sold 3.3 million new energy vehicles, accounting for half of the world.

From January to may 2022, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China maintained a growth rate of more than 100% year-on-year in 2021, maintaining the momentum of doubling every year in previous years.

It has become politically correct to ban fuel vehicles. The European Union will ban fuel vehicles in 2035, Britain in 2030, the United States in 2030-2035, and China in 2035.

Fuel vehicles are banned all over the world, and the hydrogen energy route has been eliminated. Whoever masters the electric vehicle technology first can share the future industrial cake.

What is the core technology of electric vehicles?

The core technology of fuel vehicles is the engine, but electric vehicles are not. The engine of electric vehicles is very easy to build, the current drive is very simple, and the performance is stable. No electric vehicle manufacturer will be stuck by the engine.

The core technology of electric vehicles is power batteries.

Every fuel vehicle consumer is most concerned about the engine, while electric vehicle consumers are most concerned about the power battery.

However, in the field of lithium batteries, European and American countries, which have no first mover advantage, have been completely beaten by Chinese manufacturers.

The Kirin battery of Ningde era and the blade battery of BYD are all at the most advanced level in the world, always leading the highest standard of the whole industry.

The sales volume of power batteries of these two companies has reached 46% of the global market from January to may 2022.

Nearly half of the core components of electric vehicles in the world are made in China, which is very outrageous.

Moreover, the growth momentum has not stopped…

Except for power batteries, there is no technology in the entire electric vehicle industry that can catch the neck of China. We all know it and make it locally.

Even for Tesla, there is no technology that only Tesla can build, but China can’t build electric vehicles and can’t see the hope of breakthrough. Instead, Tesla’s biggest advantage is cost performance. Musk has achieved the extreme in reducing costs.

In other words, in the whole field of electric vehicles, China has no disadvantages in technology and patents.

In any industrial field, once China catches up with or even surpasses the technology, what will happen? Do you know?

Yes, made in China has swept the world, which is the fundamental reason why you see the annual surge in the production and sales of electric vehicles in China.

Tesla took the lead in cost compression for a time, but this cannot constitute a core barrier, because cost compression is actually China’s biggest advantage. In this regard, with the expansion of Chinese car production scale, it will surpass sooner or later.

At present, there are only two countries in the electric vehicle industry, China and the United States. Germany and Japan have basically confirmed that they will be eliminated.

The German auto industry once frantically opposed the prohibition of fuel vehicles, but it could not go against the global trend and the opposition was ineffective.

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By 2035, is it possible for Germany and Japan to renege?

Detroit, the automobile city of the United States, was once the headquarters of the three auto giants, and was once very prosperous.

Due to the rise of Japanese cars and German cars, the U.S. auto industry declined, Detroit completely declined, and the city was declared bankrupt in 2013.

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In those days, American cars could not beat Japanese cars, and the market economy was willing to admit defeat.

But now in the field of electric vehicles, American cars are rising again, coupled with the political correctness of the environmental protection flag, how can the United States allow Germany and Japan to cheat.

Both countries are American colonies and have no right to repent.

At the same time, cars are for takeout. If other countries ban the sale, it is useless for Germany and Japan to keep fuel vehicles. On the contrary, they will be jointly excluded by other countries, while other countries without auto industry will ban fuel vehicles for their own interests.

In China, the production and sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 52% of the world in 2021, and 59% of the world’s production and sales from January to may 2022, making it the largest beneficiary of the new energy industry.

No one on earth is qualified to oppose what China and the United States have agreed to, let alone a group of countries.

The Japanese automobile industry began to throw in the towel in June 2022 and turned to electric vehicles, which led to Japan’s technology lagging far behind China.

It’s not that China and Japan have the same technology, but that Japanese car technology lags far behind China.

With the speed of China’s technological progress, once Japan is overtaken by China, there is basically no possibility to reverse it. In recent decades, as long as it is overtaken by China, there has never been a precedent for Europe, America and Japan to reverse it.

Therefore, the once brilliant Japanese cars and German cars are doomed to decline.

At present, China’s per capita GDP is 12500 US dollars. It has been estimated that if China can win the two industries of automobile and semiconductor, the per capita GDP can soar to 25000 US dollars. If it can also win the high-end industries such as large aircraft and finance, the per capita GDP can reach 35000 us dollars.

It’s impossible to go further, unless there is a sci-fi technological breakthrough.

Japan’s per capita GDP is $40000 and the United States’ per capita GDP is $60000. Why does China cap at $35000?

It’s very simple, because there are many Chinese people, many of them are outrageous.

To raise China’s 1.4 billion population to 35000 US dollars per capita, how many high-end industries do you have to eat all the profits before you can do it?

The huge industrial victory that can increase Japan’s per capita GDP by $10000 cannot even increase China’s per capita GDP by $1000, because China’s population is more than a dozen times that of Japan.

But there is no need to worry that China’s per capita GDP cannot exceed that of Europe, America and Japan.

You should know that the total cake of the world’s high-end industries is limited. If you eat more, others will eat less.

Judging from the current level of human science and technology, regardless of future inflation, China’s per capita GDP ceiling is $35000.

However, the per capita GDP of others can go down. If others fall below 35000 US dollars, won’t China exceed it?

If you feel embarrassed, you can also keep the per capita GDP unchanged, but the annual inflation and depreciation will make the account even.

For example, in Japan, wages have remained unchanged for 30 years, but inflation has occurred every year.

You can also do it again. The salary will remain unchanged for 30 years.

Japan’s current market share of fuel vehicles cannot be completely eaten by China, and the United States will also eat a part. Japan’s own industrial chain companies will not die, and some of them can survive and join the electric vehicle industry.

But most of the whole industrial chain will die, which is an inevitable outcome.

No battery, no cost, no cost. Whether it’s an American electric car or a Chinese electric car, Japanese cars now don’t see any chance of winning. It’s too far behind.

Let me make an account for you.

At present, Japan’s fuel vehicle industry chain provides 5.42 million jobs with an annual salary of more than 300000 yuan for Japan, while the entire Japanese population is only more than 100 million, nearly 1/3 of which are elderly people. The labor participation rate of Japanese women is less than half, the proportion of housewives is very high, and then children do not participate in work.

If the 5.42 million high paid jobs disappear, or even only half of them, it will be an unbearable economic blow to the whole of Japan, and the lives of far more than 5.42 million Japanese people will be affected.

What should I do and what should I do?

I don’t know, but Chinese workers don’t want to be so hard. Our workers also want high wages and benefits.

If the national competition fails and the betting route is wrong, the corresponding cost can only be borne by all citizens.

It is natural for the citizens who win the competition to enjoy the fruits of victory.

This is what developed capitalist countries have emphasized for many years.

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