Original: yinguoming source wechat official account: Mingren Mingcha has been authorized to reprint
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has lasted more than 100 days. Russia’s “Izvestia” reported that earlier on June 1, a committee under the Russian Ministry of Defense announced the objectives of the third phase of special military operations. It includes the control of Nikolayev, Odessa and Kharkov states. The Russian army will march into the above three states after removing Ukrainian nationalists and Ukrainian government troops in Donbas. If the Donetsk state, which is currently separated from the jurisdiction of the Ukrainian government, and the Kherson and zaporoze States, which are controlled by the Russian army and tend to join the Russian Federation, are added, Ukraine will lose all the coastlines of the Black Sea and the sea of Azov and completely become a landlocked country.
Russia’s announcement of the objectives of the third phase of special military operations means that the objectives of the second phase of Russian military operations are nearing completion. Ukraine, which has received western assistance, has not prevented Russia from advancing towards its set goals. Russia has opened up the land passage from the Crimean Peninsula, southern Ukraine, through Donbas to western Russia. On the 2nd, Zelensky admitted that Russia has controlled about one-fifth of Ukraine’s land with an area of 125000 square kilometers. If the goals of the Russian side in the three stages are completed, Ukraine will lose all coastal areas and become a landlocked country, lose its main heavy industry base, lose its main resource enrichment areas, and lose a large area of rich black land. The value of the rest of Ukraine to the United States and Europe will be greatly reduced. Considering that Poland covets the territory of western Ukraine, the territory of Ukraine may become the shape shown in the figure below.
The battlefield situation has been very unfavorable to Ukraine. No wonder Kissinger came out to suggest that Russia and Ukraine negotiate as soon as possible to restore the demarcation line between the two countries to the “original state”. If Ukraine fails completely, it will bring serious consequences beyond its capacity to the United States.
For the United States, the failure of Ukraine on the military battlefield is not a dispensable, big or small thing. The United States detonated the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine, achieved multiple goals such as deteriorating Russia Europe relations, stopping Beixi II, restarting “brain dead” NATO, and promoting the return of funds, and became the biggest winner of the Russia Ukraine conflict for the time being.
These achievements of the United States are based on the fact that Ukraine cannot lose. Once you lose, you will double what you have gained.
The United States cannot afford to lose in Ukraine because it wants to take advantage of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine to achieve the following goals and Gamble:
Russia’s decentralized use of troops and Ukraine’s tenacious resistance made the United States upgrade its strategic objectives: to consume Russia militarily through proxy wars; Unite all the forces of the United States and the west to blockade Russia economically and make the Russian economy collapse; To turn Russia’s economic predicament into a social and political crisis and realize regime change; Intensified the ethnic contradictions in Russia, and Russia finally disintegrated.
This is not the whole plan of the upgraded version of the United States. By encircling and suppressing Russia and forming a united front, the United States can contain its main adversary in the eyes of the United States by not “cold war” rather than “cold war”, take Russia first and let China fall into total isolation. The sanctions camp against Russia established by the United States can serve as a basic platform for encircling and containing China in the next step.
In order to achieve such a grand goal, the United States, together with its allies in Europe, bet on the most valuable asset of major Western economies: credit.
From then on, the United States can only win, not lose. If it does not succeed, it will become benevolent. The cost of failure is beyond the capacity of the United States.
The most direct thing is that the credit foundation of the US dollar is gone, and the global wave of de dollarization cannot be stopped. The same is true of the major members of the United States and the West who were coerced by the United States to participate in sanctions against Russia.
The United States and the west, especially the United States, can no longer afford to lose. If the United States defeats Russia on the Ukrainian battlefield, it may not be able to win in the end, because there is also a China. But if Russia wins, the United States and the West may not have a chance to win the decisive game. How can Russia have confidence and sufficient resources to contain China if it can not win?
After the United States and the West bet on credit sanctions against Russia, the only choice for the United States and the west is to solve China and Russia through the chain reaction caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, so that the system dominated by the United States and the West will continue to be the only choice in the world.
The chain reaction caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is not related to the distribution of local geopolitical interests, but a big chess game that affects the whole world order.
The reason why Russia has repeatedly stressed that its goal is to end the world order dominated by the west after the United States launched comprehensive sanctions is that since the situation has reached this stage, it can not stop without a new world order.
The Russian Ukrainian conflict did not ignite the three wars in the traditional sense, but it will have a greater impact than the traditional World War I and World War II. It is a world war in a higher form, although the main battlefield is no longer military.
As long as Russia withstands the three axes of the United States and wins the Ukrainian war, the previous layout of the United States will backfire on itself. The United States cannot continue to hide behind the European Union and continue to be the designer of the chess game. Instead, it must directly bear the consequences of backfire. The consequences of losing the Ukrainian war are naturally unbearable for Europe.
In order to support Ukraine, the United States is not willing to spend money to solve domestic problems. However, the house of Representatives and the Republican and democratic parties unanimously agreed to the $40billion “lease bill”, which also shows the extreme importance of the outcome of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine to the United States.
In order to prevent Russia from winning the war, Europe announced the sixth round of sanctions against Russia on June 3. Including some oil embargoes, sanctions on Russian oil tankers, banks and the media. On the same day, the European Commission issued a communiqu é saying that the sanctions measures will take effect immediately and will gradually reduce Russian oil imports. The EU will stop buying Russian marine crude oil within six months, accounting for two-thirds of the EU’s imports of Russian crude oil, and stop buying Russian oil products within eight months. By the end of 2022, EU oil imports from Russia will decrease by 90%.
Not for a decisive battle that cannot afford to lose, Europe will not rather endure its own economic pain and increase sanctions against Russia. Taking credit into account, the United States actually bet more than Europe. The United States is betting on global hegemony.
The Chinese Internet is full of voices that provoke Sino Russian relations and ask China to cooperate with the United States in imposing sanctions on Russia. They hope that Russia will fail miserably every day. Up to now, they have not stopped. Disintegrating Sino Russian relations is the focus of public opinion on China in line with the US strategy.
Although the conflict between Russia and Ukraine cannot decide the new order at one stroke, it can shake the leadership of the United States and the West over the old order to a great extent.
Brzezinski warned American policymakers in the big chess game that the biggest potential danger for the United States is the formation of a major alliance between China, Russia and perhaps Iran.
Brzezinski is known as a strategist, not in vain. It seems that in order to prove the truth of Brzezinski’s words, the United States began to carry out reverse proof, and the warning effect of negative teaching materials is the strongest. Brzezinski predicted that the three situations that may lead to the collapse of the United States’ global hegemony: the Russian European Union, the China Japan alliance, and the China Russia Iraq alliance are now evolving to the situation that is most unfavorable to the United States.
This strategic deviation of the United States began when it did not adopt brzinski’s proposal and refused to integrate Russia into the West. In 1997, Brzezinski offered advice to the United States at that time: Russia should be accepted to avoid the situation of China Russia Cooperation: “let China’s overall geopolitical interests conflict with Russia’s efforts to pursue dominance.”
Based on the evolution of the international situation over the past three decades, Brzezinski’s strategy of alliance with Russia poses the greatest threat to China’s re emergence.
Thanks to the U.S. doing the opposite. Instead of separating China and Russia, China, Russia and Iran were suppressed at the same time, and the conditions for the great alliance between China, Russia and Iran were achieved step by step. Did the United States only do this because of the mistakes made by the short-sighted American politicians later on? Not necessarily.
Brzezinski wants the United States to guard against the three situations, among which there are internal contradictions in guarding against the Russian European Union and the China Russia Iraq alliance. To guard against the Russian European Union, Russia cannot be allowed to integrate into the West. For the United States to maintain its leadership over Europe, Russia Europe relations need to be in a state of contradiction and conflict.
In the final analysis, it is still because of China’s development that the United States’ power to control the world is stretched, and it is inevitable to lose sight of one thing and lose sight of the other.
An important reason why the United States is rushing to provoke the conflict between Russia and Ukraine this time is to cut off the bud of the “Russian European Union” that Brzezinski said could threaten the global hegemony of the United States.
For the United States, “Beixi 2” natural gas transmission pipeline is an extremely dangerous signal, which means that Russia’s rich energy is further bound up with Europe’s powerful industry, and Europe’s dependence on Russian energy is further increased. Russia’s energy and military strength can just make up for the weakness of Europe’s comprehensive strength. If Russia Europe relations become closer, it will be difficult to cut them off. With the evolution of time, the United States is approaching the “Russian European Union” step by step, which is absolutely intolerable for the purpose of maintaining hegemony. Therefore, the United States must make the Russian European relations worse before the formal ventilation of the “Beixi II”.
In addition to the appreciation of the US dollar, the domestic asset price foam is too big, which requires European funds to return to fight the fire. Therefore, these factors are superimposed, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine was detonated at that particular moment.
It is also risky for the United States to do so. If Russia Europe relations deteriorate in an all-round way, Russia will stop thinking about integrating into the West and turn to the East.
As long as China and Russia remove their mutual wariness and move towards comprehensive strategic cooperation, the most unfavorable situation for the United States, the China Russia Iraq Grand Alliance, will certainly be formed, or even overfulfilled.
The United States has no choice but to unite Europe and other allies, solve Russia first, and then concentrate all its forces to encircle and suppress China.
This means that a decisive battle is staged ahead of schedule due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. This is the ultimate showdown we have been talking about before.
There are also elements of necessity for the United States to follow this pattern. Because the strength of the United States is weakening, while the strength of China is rising. The more time it takes, the more unfavourable it becomes. It is also necessary to gamble.
The key for the United States to carry out the final decisive battle is to solve the Russian problem by taking advantage of the Ukrainian crisis. The key move is to unite Europe and impose comprehensive sanctions on Russia.
Although Russia started by sending troops in several direct routes, the initial performance of Kiev and Ukraine along the way was not necessarily within the initial expectations of the United States. However, as long as Russia launches military operations against Ukraine, these will not affect the United States and Europe to implement comprehensive sanctions against Russia.
Sanctions are the main means, and the economy is the main battlefield.
In order to impose sanctions, the United States has invested hundreds of years of credit. This is a bet on the foundation of dollar hegemony. Of course, the United States has persuaded Europe to do so.
To bet on your family means there is no retreat.
The United States wants to attack Russia’s economy through sanctions and consume Russia’s national strength through the protracted war in Ukraine. Two pronged approach, Russia will soon be unable to hold on. If Russia fails to persevere, it can concentrate all its resources against China. Perfect!
The Ukrainian war has become an eye in the chess game of the United States’ goal to ensure the continuation of American leadership for a hundred years.
Murphy’s theorem tells us that what we are afraid of often comes to us. Russia has resisted the comprehensive sanctions jointly initiated by the United States and Europe. Moreover, Russia’s economic data are surprisingly good. The rouble is the best performing currency in any country. In the first April, Russia’s fiscal surplus exceeded 1.1 trillion rubles, equivalent to 95.8 billion US dollars, more than three times that of last year, the highest in 28 years. Russia’s exports of oil, gas and products soared.
On the military battlefield, Russia has been steadily fighting for 100 days, controlling 125000 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory. Now the war in eastern Ukraine is still going on, the decisive battle of Donbas is going on, Ukraine is becoming more and more discouraged, the United States and the West are also losing confidence in Ukraine, and the balance of victory is leaning towards Russia. After winning northern Donetsk, Russia will basically achieve the goal of the second stage.
Ukraine still has a fraction of the industrial manufacturing capacity it can control, and nearly half of its agricultural production capacity. This is almost a state in which a country is terminally ill. It can only be maintained by relying heavily on the assistance of the United States and the West. If a country with a population of tens of millions has lost most of its ability to make blood by itself, how can the prospect not be bleak against a world military power?
The decisive game designed by the United States is likely to get stuck in Russia.
Russia is invincible. The United States is the first to gain and then to lose in the Russia Ukraine conflict provoked by the United States.
First of all, without Russia, European resources cannot be mobilized to deal with the great powers in the East. It is obvious that the United States has been unable to contain its biggest strategic adversary with the power of one country. If the goal is not achieved, it will accelerate the re emergence of China and the decline of the United States. Otherwise, how can we say that the United States is gambling.
Therefore, the whole world will see clearly a basic fact: the United States cannot defeat Russia by gathering 40 countries. The absolute strength of the United States and the West has seriously declined to the extent that even a severely declining Russia cannot help, which fully exposes the weakness of the United States and the West. How to command the world with strength in the future?
The defeat of Ukraine means that the US Western camp organized by the US has lost its dominance in the great changes of the century. Even Russia can not make up its mind. China, which has stronger comprehensive strength, is rising, and they can’t stop it. The United States has already set the upper limit of its hegemonic power by organizing 40 countries to impose sanctions on Russia. With the failure of the Ukrainian proxy war, the mobilization ability of the United States and the West will decline significantly. It has had an important impact on the countries in the world who are still on the sidelines.
Secondly, when Ukraine loses, the trend of Russia turning to the East will not stop, and the pattern of China Russia cooperation side by side will not change. The comprehensive strategic cooperation between China and Russia can promote the central plate of the Eurasian continent from decentralization to unity. The advantages of sea power over land power dominated by Britain and the United States for 200 years will become a masterpiece.
In the future world, land power and sea power will be more balanced. Only a big country that can pay equal attention to land and sea will have the opportunity to become a new world center. Once the divided plates of the Eurasian continent have been integrated, and countries that attach equal importance to sea and land have replaced the status of sea power countries, it will be unsustainable for sea power powers to rely on offshore balance to maintain the advantage of sea power over land power. The era when sea power countries dominated the mainstream of world civilization ended.
The union between China and Russia is a necessary condition for the end of sea power. The two countries can play a master-slave role, but neither can be absent.
The final outcome of the war between Russia and Ukraine has not yet been achieved. A series of chain reactions have been testing the psychological endurance of the United States.
Some signals of great changes in geopolitics and economy also began to appear due to the conflict in Ukraine:
Recently, it has been reported that Iran is joining the SCO. The collective security organization led by Russia also expressed its expectation to strengthen cooperation with SCO. From China and Russia to Central Asia, it passes through the “Shia arc” in the Middle East and leads to the Mediterranean.
The Eurasian Economic Union led by Russia has also begun to fully connect with China. The latest news is that the China Uzbekistan Kyrgyzstan railway, which has not been broken for 25 years, has made a breakthrough recently. Kyrgyz President zaparov announced on May 30 that the China Uzbekistan Railway will be started in 2023. This railway is of great strategic significance.
Iran and Afghanistan held the completion ceremony of the HAF herat railway in december2020. Earlier, Abbas khatibi, Deputy Minister of transport and urban development of Iran, said: “it is hoped that the railway between Iran and Afghanistan will be extended to China and become a part of the East-West railway corridor. The realization of this wish is just around the corner.”.
In this way, there will be at least two new railway lines connecting Central Asia and connecting the Middle East and Europe. If China Pakistan railway is added, China will have three new lines connecting the Middle East. The land passage between Central Asia and the Middle East will be smooth. The railway guides the flow of people, logistics and capital in Central Asia and the Middle East, and connects them to the Chinese economy.
The world’s largest manufacturing industry and the resources of Russia, Iran, Syria and several Central Asian countries can form an economic cycle with the largest coverage in history.
The petrodollar mechanism of the United States in the Middle East will therefore be in jeopardy. OPEC, led by Saudi Arabia, was already dissatisfied with the United States. As long as the power of China and Russia can be projected to the Middle East, a de dollarization sweeping the world may start from the Middle East at any time.
As Russia turns more to the East, new natural gas and oil pipelines from Russia to China will also be planned and constructed.
With the docking of Russian energy to the Chinese economy, there is also news in Outer Mongolia, which is between China and Russia.
According to the global times on May 31, the US magazine foreign policy recently published an article revealing that Mongolia will build three key railway lines by the end of this year, keep pace with the Sino Russian infrastructure plan, connect the Sino Russian railway, and make the Sino Russian energy interconnection.
If the above countries, which belong to different political sectors in history, form a unified big cycle system in economy, it is difficult for Southeast Asian countries to refuse to join.
If Southeast Asia also comes in, will India, with a population similar to China, remain indifferent?
The original fragmented Eurasian continent has become a piece of land. Finally, it will become a reality from a theoretical possibility.
The historical feats that have not been realized for thousands of years can be seen by our generation. Lucky, lucky!
Central Asia, the Middle East, Europe and Africa are connected by land and sea routes. In the future, Southeast Asia will be connected by the Pan Asian Railway. The new silk road will connect Asia, Europe and Africa.
With the integration of the Asian continent, Africa and Latin America will naturally connect.
Then, won’t the American Western camp dominated by the United States be divided? Just next to China, South Korea and Japan will have doubts about whether they will continue to follow the United States.
Along with these geopolitical and geo economic arrangements, the credit of the United States and the west is seriously overdrawn due to sanctions against Russia, and will further collapse due to the failure of Ukraine. A monetary, financial and trading system that is not controlled by the West will certainly be established.
This series of chain reactions, one after another, combined together, has laid a basic framework for the great changes that have not been seen in a century.
The United States provoked the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and imposed comprehensive sanctions on Russia, dispelling Russia’s last doubts about turning to the East. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine marks the development of the world great change from the preparation stage to the implementation stage, and from the quantitative change stage to the qualitative change stage.
The EU high representative for foreign and security policy Borrelli said publicly that western countries must avoid the alliance between Russia and Asian powers. I’m afraid it’s too late.
This great change in the world is the second time in human history that two countries compete for global advantages. The first was the cold war between the Soviet Union and the United States, and the United States won.
Brzezinski said in his book “competition plan” that, in view of the cold war between the United States and the Soviet Union, because the Soviet Union has its own defects, as long as the Soviet Union does not win, it will fail, and as long as the United States does not lose, it will win.
Now this law will also work. But this time, because of its own problems, as long as the United States does not win, it will fail; As long as the main opponent of the United States is not defeated, it will win.
To win the championship in the Olympic Games, we must defeat the strongest opponent. First of all, we must be invincible, and we must not make subversive mistakes. The main risk we face is still from the inside, and the power that can give us a fatal blow is still not an external opponent.