Author: Kafka is busy source: outsider’s horizon (id:hooyar_380097485)
It’s a long time since I’ve seen it. A group of economists blew it up before. The so-called Japan played a big game of chess. Before it reached the middle of the game, it began to play badly.
On the 15th, I a was very excited. The big finance went up with the index. As a result, after 2:00 p.m., because the Japanese government bond was blown, I a went straight up and down.
In fact, I wanted to write about Japanese government bonds a few days ago. Someone asked me if I wanted to change some yen because of the sharp fall of the yen exchange rate. At that time, my answer was that I was not afraid of losing my life, but I could change it!
Because Japan’s debt crisis is not the same as that of the United States, Japan, like the so-called Meiji Restoration period, cheated the people of the whole country into the so-called pit of national debt, and used the accumulated funds of the whole society to give financial capital cheap enjoyment.
Just listen to the bullshit that Japan takes a big advantage by printing money. It doesn’t matter if it takes a small advantage with finance. It’s really a big advantage. It has to be defended by the aircraft carrier fleet. Do you have any in Japan?
When the world boasts that the yen is a safe haven for assets, other countries will take it seriously. The Bank of Japan printed a large number of banknotes, but Japanese government bonds can be accepted by some countries and invested as so-called capital projects.
But recently, the yen has plummeted by 30%. What do you think if you are a yen asset holder?
As a fund, 1% is already a painful loss, and up to 30%, it can make a lot of funds miserable.
This is the trend of the exchange rate between the US dollar and the Japanese yen. Recently, it has accelerated the second wave of depreciation. Why? No points in mind?
Because the puppet currency, the Japanese yen, will take the initiative to shoulder the thunder for the US dollar.
The US dollar index soared because the Federal Reserve has the expectation of raising interest rates, and the voice is getting louder and louder. It is said that it is 0.75%. As a rational financial writer, I don’t believe this kind of nonsense at all. The US dollar dares to raise interest rates so much, and the Federal Reserve has ruined the US economy. Do you dare to bear such a heavy responsibility?
If you can’t afford it, the Fed, the world’s most powerful NGO, may be targeted, and the interests of major shareholders may not be guaranteed.
After all, in the 1960s, Kennedy proposed to take back the Federal Reserve and return it to the state.
The U.S. economy is not overheating. It is simply that after the supply-demand relationship has been distorted by the epidemic, it has been distorted again by a group of politicians who are trying to make a name for themselves with other policies.
The cost of zero yuan purchase should be added to the people who pay honestly. Do you think the capitalists will help you pay? The more zero yuan you buy, the more expensive the retail price!
Allowing free housing forced landlords to increase their houses to offset the impact. Some renters really didn’t want to be exploited, so they went to buy houses, resulting in an increase in housing demand and house prices. As a result, the 30-year mortgage interest rate has soared to more than 5%, which directly makes the buyers unable to bear the monthly interest. As a result, no one has bought the houses. After the quantity goes on, the price will collapse.
The consumer confidence index of the United States has fallen out of a new low. Even Americans brainwashed by consumption have begun to rationally face consumption. Is the economy really hot?
But will politicians stand up and say it’s their fault? Biden and trump will accuse each other and shift responsibilities to each other. No one is willing to assume responsibility, that is, no one is responsible, and then throw the pot to the market.
When problems arise within imperialism that are difficult to solve, they usually create external crises to resolve internal contradictions.
As I said before, the United States generally has an economic cycle of 8-10 years, from easing to tightening, and finally ends up with an economic crisis. Like the foam economy in 2000 and the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008, it was an opportunity to provoke a trade war for 18 years. At the end of 18, the U.S. stock market was shocked by Christmas Eve, but Chuan Jianguo was determined not to be a pot bearer, so the U.S. stock market was rescued and began to secretly release water in the second half of 19, In the past 20 years, the epidemic situation has led to another crazy printing of money.
The problem is that since the United States began to tighten in 2015, the dollar has started to flow back. If there was a stock market crash, a sharp fall and a bit of liquidity was killed, then the United States would not be too hot. As a result, it was a powerful drug to eat in 20 years. The overflowing dollar liquidity did not fully flow to the world because of the epidemic. The internal circulation in the United States quickly ignited the CPI, forcing the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates and shrink its table to show its attitude.
But can the United States really raise interest rates too much and shrink its watch too much as it is now? Aren’t you afraid of the dollar hiccup caused by the real double kill of stocks and debts?
After the Russo Ukrainian war, Europe was seriously injured, but Europe has long been an empty shell. If we really want to destroy Europe, it will only be cheaper for Russia.
Finally, Europe will have to survive.
So Japan is needed at this time.
Remember how the 1997 Asian financial crisis broke out?
Asia has been plagued by a collective disaster. It all depends on Japan!
Remember, after the Kobe earthquake in 1995, the United States allowed the yen to depreciate. Because of the rapid depreciation of the yen, international players would reverse arbitrage in Asia. In the end, everyone killed collective stocks, foreign exchange and debt, and one country after another went bankrupt.
This wave of yen depreciation is more rapid than that in 1997, so many local bond markets in Asia have already suffered.
Taiwan’s government bonds have basically lost liquidity.
Recently, the bond yields of Vietnam and India, which have been very popular, are soaring, which means that liquidity is tight.
The Japanese government previously announced that the yield of government bonds should be controlled within 0.25%, which is backed by the unrestricted buying by the Bank of Japan.
Now the yen has plummeted, the market is selling yen assets everywhere, and a large number of bonds have been sold. International investors previously bought yen to be a safe haven asset. Now this way of falling, it is the biggest risk. Of course, no one took over the offer, so they were finally hit by a large amount of orders yesterday.
In 1995, Japan still had a huge trade surplus and a large number of advantageous industries. The foam economy did not completely destroy the Japanese economy, which is totally different from today.
Today, Japan has maintained a trade deficit for a long time. Because the price of oil, natural gas, energy and food has risen sharply, Japan’s trade deficit still tends to expand. The key is that the dominant industries have frequently spread problems. The myth of Japanese manufacturing has been broken. The decline of the exchange rate can not help exports too much, but expand the impact of imported inflation.
At this time, conniving at the collapse of the local currency is not a big game, but to find a hanging rope for yourself.
However, this is what the United States needs. As long as the yen continues to play the game of the Asian financial crisis 25 years ago, international investment banks can concentrate the excessive liquidity in the United States on Asia by shorting Asia.
There is no hurry about raising interest rates or shrinking the table.
Have you noticed that during Biden’s recent visit to Asia, except for Japan, the whole of Asia is scrambling to make friends with major countries.
Because I can see the potential risk caused by the sharp fall of the yen, can the elites of all countries really not see it?
Who especially wants to be put forward by the IMF like in 1997?
When things go wrong, who will have enough liquidity to save the little brothers in Asia?
Now don’t show kindness. Is it good to lick your face and go to Beijing for help in case of an accident?
However, there is an idiom in China called “carving a boat for a sword”. The world situation today is very different from that 25 years ago.
After the outbreak of the Russo Ukrainian war, the ruble had a V-shaped reversal. Do you think it was just the Russian central bank that fought a beautiful exchange rate war? It’s not that simple. The ruble is directly linked to oil and gas resources. As a result, the US dollar credit has been stripped off.
In the past, once Russia made trouble, the United States suppressed energy prices. Now energy prices can’t come down. What does that mean? No points in mind?
If someone takes the lead in setting up the local currency trading system of the US dollar and succeeds, there will certainly be many bold people competing to follow suit. Isn’t India the first to emerge?
So can the US dollar still prevail as a weapon in 1997?
A group of old Cold War monsters in the White House are afraid that they have eaten too much medicine and haven’t woken up yet.
The current situation is that who Japan has a better relationship with and who is more unlucky.
That’s right. I’m talking about those stupid frogs sitting in the sky in Taiwan Province.
The yen used itself as a weapon. The first one to be killed must be the bay. Now the government bonds on the island have basically lost liquidity. This is proof. You know, quantity comes before price.
In recent days, the mainstream semiconductor enterprises of TSMC have been making money. The island is very arrogant, but the reality is that the semiconductor recession cycle has come, and everyone is not optimistic about the medium and long term.
Low process, rapid progress in China, and high process are mainly used in mobile phones, which are portable electronic products. However, recently, mobile phone shipments have fallen too fast,
Sometimes the change from surplus to short supply is just a blink of an eye.
Japan played with fire and burned Asia. The biggest possibility is that the dollar market was burned down. The puppet exploded and hurt the hand of the rope puller behind it. Isn’t that normal?
Abe was greedy for the United States to print money crazily, thinking that the yen could print money as much as the dollar. However, the United States still has an aircraft carrier fleet, with a large number of nuclear bombs. Japan has a nuclear leak at the Fukushima nuclear power plant and American soldiers stationed at home. Can it be the same?
In the past, Japan had a huge trade surplus, but now even this is simply gone. A small island with extremely scarce resources can not find enough buyers to boast about craftsmanship. What else?
The Bank of Japan only took 43% of the Japanese government bonds, and the Japanese commercial banks had 34% of them. Do you really think that the Bank of Japan would love to see this property disappear?
In the Asian financial crisis, the biggest chips of short sellers came from insiders, protecting the market for the country? Capital tells you what to daydream about.
So who sold Japanese government bonds until they were blown? Is it really a foreign investor?
Some people asked me what impact this has on my A. in fact, it has little impact. This wave of independent trend of my a is actually a hedge. We are productive to support the exchange rate. The world’s largest surplus country still has the confidence to challenge this.
Capital has never been patriotic. It is only mercenary. The world is in a slump. If you dare to go against the trend, you will inevitably attract all kinds of hot money to invest.
In the financial game, the final bet is the chips. In a rotten world, in fact, the chips of big countries are more than you think.