Author: Sheng Tang rushong source wechat official account: the chief shopkeeper’s knife has been authorized to reprint
The Shangri La dialogue meeting was a sword and shadow. Under the circumstances of the United States, Japan, Australia and South Korea sharpening their swords, the Chinese defense minister can be said to have a feeling of going to the meeting alone.
As yesterday’s article “twenty one years of war” said, Japan is in full swing this time. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, defense minister Nobuo Kishida and foreign minister Lin Fangzheng jointly attended the meeting, which is the most luxurious lineup in Japan since Shinzo Abe attended the meeting eight years ago. Japan’s intention is very clear, that is, to do its utmost to support the United States, [it can also be said to encourage the United States] to create a crisis in the East China Sea and urge the United States to take the lead in the East China Sea issue for Japan, and of course for the United States itself.
Although both Japan and the United States believe that they have their own interests and needs in the East China Sea, there are still differences. The United States hopes to use this to contain China and blackmail China, but Japan hopes to have an opportunity to break the situation. If it were not for fear that it would be reduced to a battlefield, Japan would like to let China and the United States fight a big battle and die together, so that it can reap the benefits. If China and the United States want to fight in the East China Sea without involving Japan, the best battlefield is the Taiwan Strait. Japan has experience. In the Korean War, Japan, as the logistics base of the United States, not only successfully changed from an enemy of the United States to a comrade in arms of the United States, but also used the special status of the logistics base to restore the Japanese economy at one stroke, laying a solid foundation for the subsequent great economic development of Japan. Such a result is not a dream for Japan, because they have experienced such a wonderful journey.
What’s more, China at this time is no longer a country that can only rely on single arms combat 70 years ago, but a country that can carry out three-dimensional confrontation with the United States on land, sea and air. This time, it is either not going to do it, or it is a showdown, rather than talking about fighting [moreover, even if it is a draw, Japan will certainly take the opportunity to ask the United States to withdraw from its military bases in Japan.] For the Japanese, the best plan they can do is to urge China and the United States to duel in the Taiwan Strait. If the United States wins, Japan will become the king of Asia; If China wins, it can drive the United States away and become a “normal country” free from bondage. This is one of the main reasons why Japan has been very active recently. In fact, if Western countries worry that the rise of China will affect the control of the western system over the world, Japan will be less concerned about it, because according to its understanding of China, China is a country that is more receptive to change, that is, good at absorbing it. The results of decades of reform can confirm this speculation. If any country in the world knows Chinese culture best, Japan must be one of them. However, it is difficult for western countries to understand Chinese culture. Therefore, Japan is not worried about China’s victory after the Sino US duel. The big deal is that Japan just bows and kowtows to apologize. In exchange, it will never be like what the United States did on Japanese territory in those days. The most likely thing is that it is similar to Zhugeliang’s magnanimity towards Meng Huo. As long as Japan does not go too far in the struggle between China and the United States, the so-called nuclear peace will basically not happen. If we look at and analyze this problem objectively, we will get the above results. Emotional performance does not affect the final outcome.
In fact, we have no good way to deal with this disgusting operation in Japan. Because what we need to deal with is American hegemony. It’s hateful to be a villain who incites the flames and plays rogues, but if they all end up with a cow like Yang Zhi, the gains will not pay off. This will only make the United States happy. In view of this, we don’t need to have extravagant hopes for Japan, but we don’t need to take it as a major competitor and keep a close eye on the United States. Either do it or do it in the United States.
Australia also had a good time. Not long ago, the Australian reconnaissance plane was taught a lesson by China in the South China Sea. It cried out for a long time. At this Shangri La security dialogue, it was naturally unwilling to be lonely. Moreover, Australia and Canada are the extraterritorial helpers that the United States has brought to East Asia. Following the lead in the United States is Australia’s job. However, like Canada, Australia’s involvement in East Asia just makes Americans feel more like the boss. If they really want to start, they don’t see enough. Their real role is far less than that of Japan.
The most powerful reason for Australia’s recent clamor is the development of relations between China and the South Pacific island countries. But the president of Solomon Islands said that all agreements signed with China were signed with Australia. The implication is that since we can sign with you, why can’t we sign with China? Aren’t you interfering in our national sovereignty? What is the so-called stabbing your shield with your spear? Naturally, Australia has nothing to say, because it has always said that it should respect the independence of the South Pacific island countries. The reason it accuses China is that it is worried that China will affect the independence of these countries. Now people have told you that I will have the same relationship with China as you do with me. No more words.
Under such circumstances, Australia is bound to increase its cooperation with the United States in the Western Pacific and increase the presence of Australian military forces in the East and South China seas. Although it doesn’t play a big role, it can help the United States reduce its burden, and even serve as cannon fodder for the United States, so that the United States can get more space to play the game with China. The same is true of Canada’s role in Asia.
But some people in the five eye alliance expressed different attitudes. This country is New Zealand. New Zealand defense minister hernell publicly stated in Shangri La: “Pacific island countries have the freedom to decide on their own in cooperation with China. New Zealand respects the sovereignty of these Pacific island countries, and trying to force a certain result is not in anyone’s interest.” open dialogue “is the key to handling security relations with China.”
The New Zealand defense minister’s words are more like exhortation to the United States and Australia. In any case, New Zealand has shown this attitude, which basically means that it has recognized the development results of the relations between the South Pacific island countries and China. New Zealand demands dialogue rather than conflict, which is actually the only way for Australia and New Zealand to handle their relations with China. First of all, the South Pacific island has its own right to development. If Australia and New Zealand erase this, their own authority in the South Pacific will be damaged. Secondly, China’s benefits to the South Pacific island countries are also in line with the interests of Australia and New Zealand, because it not only reduces the burden on Australia and New Zealand, but also brings the economic development of the entire South Pacific region to a higher level, thus enhancing the economic vitality and influence of the entire South Pacific region in the world. There are two main reasons why Australia is unwilling to accept China’s intervention in the South Pacific region. One is that it will affect Australia’s absolute authority in the South Pacific region. The other is that it cannot follow the US policy towards China. However, these two reasons are untenable for the South Pacific countries, New Zealand and even Australia itself. Because to prevent the development of the South Pacific and China is actually to hinder the overall economic level of the South Pacific. The United States can’t give things to the South Pacific. China can. So why do we have to shut them out for the sake of the so-called ‘values’? What’s more, Australia is not closing its own door, but trying to close the door of its neighbors. It is unreasonable to be in love with reason. Only the United States is qualified to do this and often does it. I’m afraid Australia is still a little young to learn from the United States.
However, the New Zealand foreign minister’s remarks are obviously inconsistent with the remarks made by New Zealand Prime Minister Adrian a month ago. A month ago, Aden and Biden hyped the cooperation between China and the South Pacific island countries, claiming that China’s practice was intolerable. A month later, how did its defense chief change his tone? I don’t think this is a change for New Zealand, but New Zealand is willing to help the United States suppress China, but is not willing to really make things out of control. If both sides really take the Pacific Ocean as a vast world, it will be these South Pacific countries that will be unlucky if you come and go. During World War II, many Pacific islands were just a coordinate on the military map of the United States and Japan. When deciding to bomb this coordinate, we would never discuss it with the people on the island. New Zealand also knows that China is not malicious, and the United States is indeed excessive. New Zealand is just pretending to understand. The meeting was tense. New Zealand naturally wanted to lower the temperature to avoid fire.
In fact, this idea of New Zealand is also the idea of many ASEAN countries: it can take advantage of the old advantages of the game between China and the United States, but it must not become a place for China and the United States to fight. The first person to understand this is Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore. Although Sri Lanka has gone, his son is now following his ideas to reconcile China US relations. However, with the size of Singapore, his heart is more than his strength.
However, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines and other countries have gradually come to understand that they have become the same countries as New Zealand. To be exact, it should be that New Zealand has become a country like them. This still seems unfair to China, because these countries generally prefer the United States. However, it has been a great success for China to reach this stage. Compared with the common hatred and fear of Russia in Eastern European countries, as a world power, we can obviously unite with more countries.
The establishment of Taiwan’s sovereignty will not worry the neighboring countries, because everyone already knows that only countries with evil intentions such as Japan will disrupt the situation and seek their own interests. This is an extremely selfish performance. If you really want to seek regional peace and development, you should not expect to get what you should not have. The so-called greedy snake swallows an elephant. Aren’t you afraid of being trampled to death by an elephant?