Author: Sheng Tang rushong source: wechat official account: the Dao of the big shopkeeper has been reprinted with authorization
The zaborore nuclear power station is now a cause for concern. These days, they have been shelled almost every two days, and sometimes every day. Who did it? Russia and Ukraine blamed each other. At the beginning, I also took it for granted that the nuclear power station is now in the hands of the Russian army, and the Russians should bomb it? The prime culprit of the shelling must be Ukraine.
But on second thought, what the Ukrainians said did not seem completely unreasonable. On the 19th of this month, Zelensky agreed that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) should send personnel to inspect the pineapple explosion thermal nuclear power station. The next day, Putin also announced that he would allow the International Atomic Energy Agency to enter the nuclear power plant for inspection. But will the IAEA speak for Russia? This is a big question mark. Although there are no British or American experts among the members of the organization that came to inspect this time, but the so-called neutral experts, if they are all “neutral” like Switzerland, Russia is afraid that it will not be at ease. After all, after the occupation of the zaporo thermal nuclear power station, the operators inside were still Ukrainians. In order to make these people work in peace in Russia, it must be difficult to achieve only by comforting them.
Not long ago, it was also reported that after the zaporoze nuclear power station was shelled, the Russian army arrested several Ukrainian nuclear power station workers. It was said that they provided the Ukrainian army with information inside the nuclear power station. You see, on the issue of how to manage the nuclear power station, the Russians still use some non peaceful means. Once the IAEA inspectors see or know the details of these means, or even let some Western organizations enter once, they will have a chance to speak. Even if the Russians paid a huge price for the maintenance of the nuclear power station, they could only be condemned and denounced by the “international community” in the end. In fact, as long as the IAEA inspects, such condemnation and denunciation will certainly occur. Regarding this. The Russian side has already spread the word that western countries will use this inspection to discredit Russia.
For the west, there is no price to pay for this kind of real and false public opinion war, which is just a keyboard and a speech. But for Russia, which is at an absolute disadvantage in the right to speak, the consequences are very serious. Once it is proved that Russia has committed war crimes in some aspects, Russia may be suspended from voting in the United Nations. Although the status of permanent members is difficult to shake. However, if the European and American countries get or make empirical evidence, humiliating Russia by suspending the voting rights of the Security Council may still achieve the goal. Therefore, in general, Russia will try its best to avoid such a thing. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) initiated the inspection of the zaporozhi nuclear power station. The Ukrainian government responded quickly because the nuclear power station was not in their hands. If the inspection of the IAEA further deepened the establishment of the Ukrainian government’s sovereignty over the nuclear power station, it would be beneficial to Ukraine. Moreover, the report of the International Atomic Energy Agency after the inspection may eventually lay the groundwork for the future destruction of nuclear power plants. Russia cannot help but guard against this.
However, it is reasonable for Putin to agree to the inspection of the International Atomic Energy Agency. He has no reason not to agree. After all, the International Atomic Energy Agency is under the banner of peace and neutrality. Even if we know that there is water in this neutrality, we can not separate this matter. If you break it off, it will be a muddle headed account. Therefore, it is reasonable for Russians to use security issues to prevent western dominated institutions from entering.
The above does not mean that the bombing of the nuclear power station was directed and acted by the Russians, but that both sides are indeed suspected of this incident, and Ukraine is a little more suspected. Although the current nuclear power station is in Russia’s hands, it is a very hot potato.
Russia naturally has its own strategic intention to win the zaporo thermal nuclear power station. First, it is the largest nuclear power station in Europe, which almost guarantees nearly 30% of the power supply in Ukraine. Ukraine’s oil and gas energy is dependent on the supply of Russia. After the outbreak of war between the two sides, the energy issue is undoubtedly one of the best ways for Russia to grasp Ukraine. If it controls its nuclear power plants again, Russia will have a more dominant voice on energy issues. Moreover, zaborore nuclear power station is located on the left bank of Dnieper River and is part of udong region. Its location is very close to Crimea. After Russia gets the power, it can guarantee most of the power supply of udong region and Crimea. It is very beneficial for Russia to win this nuclear power station in terms of both use and strategy.
Although the Ukrainians have lost their control over the nuclear power station, if the safety of the nuclear power station can be destroyed and the nuclear power station faces disastrous consequences, Russia, as the controller, will obviously be the back man. Therefore, the tactics adopted by Ukraine is to constantly bombard nuclear power plants, but not to attack the core targets of nuclear power plants, but to attack their non core or sub core targets. In this way, Russia’s defense strength in this region can be continuously consumed. This has left Russia exhausted.
Therefore, from the perspective of income, the possibility of Ukraine shelling the zaborore nuclear power station is much higher. However, Russia does not rule out the possibility of directing and acting in the middle. After all, the International Atomic Energy Agency has said that it will visit the nuclear power station next week. Although Russia warmly welcomes this, if Western countries can not prevent Zelensky from taking risks on the nuclear power station, the nuclear power station will be in a very dangerous situation. Under such circumstances, it is obviously inappropriate for the experts of the International Atomic Energy Agency to go to inspect because their safety cannot be guaranteed.
The war between Russia and Ukraine sounded the horn of confrontation between the two camps. Just because Russia is not able to become the leader of one of the camps, it still needs a period of observation to see whether this confrontation can finally take shape. Judging from the current situation of the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, it is impossible for Russia to quickly let Ukraine admit defeat, and Ukraine naturally cannot counter attack Russia. Such confrontation obviously consumes the strength of both sides. Although Ukraine has the support of European and American countries, if European and American countries fall into such consumption for a long time, they may not be able to sustain it.
Europe and the United States, especially Europe, can not support it. In fact, Russia is even more difficult to support it. However, the so-called “holding up” actually refers to the decline of the living standards and production levels of the respective societies, not the collapse. In fact, we know that the Russian Ukrainian war will not destroy the production systems of the belligerents, but will change the focus of the production systems of the two sides. This war will not directly collapse the Russian Ukrainian society, but will only reduce the living standard of this society. If there is a collapse in the end, it is only because the people of this society can not bear the decline in living standard. Judging from the current situation, the decline of living standards in both Russia and European and American countries is still within the tolerable range, especially in Russia. As long as we can make good use of the sad card, there is still a lot of room for the improvement of the people’s livelihood in Russia. What’s more, in the current international situation, although Russia will suffer sanctions and the decline of living elements due to this war, it will not have an absolute crisis of living materials. There are people behind Ukraine, and there are many countries behind Russia that have helped.
This consumption will eventually drag Europe, America and Russia to an unknown future. At the end of the war, either Russia will concede defeat and be slaughtered by others [is this possible? Theoretically, it exists, although it is difficult to achieve this result in reality]. Or the West will finally give up sanctions against Russia, and Europe will gain nothing from the price paid for this confrontation, thus making Europe the biggest loser in the end. [this is a high probability]. You can make up your mind. No matter who the two sides finally concede, what impact will it have on us? I don’t like to imagine those negative factors. From the perspective of positive factors, either the sword on our head is gone, or the wings of the United States are broken. Of course, there may also be a more positive side, that is, the United States fell from a high altitude because of the broken wings.
I think both sides of the confrontation should have realized the existence of such an outcome. However, just like the current situation of the zaborore nuclear power station, although Russia realized that it was a hot potato in its hand, it could not let go. Although Ukraine knew that attacking the zaborore nuclear power station was enough to cause itself great trouble, it could not stop. I’m afraid the only one who can solve this crisis is a saint from heaven. But in Europe and the United States, there is only the virgin, not the saint.
Therefore, we are not in a hurry. The emergence of saints to resolve this crisis is not only a blessing for Russia and Europe, but also a blessing for the world. They are really entangled in each other. In the end, there will be a situation of one death and one injury or two losses. It seems that we do not have too much harm. Taking advantage of the current stalemate, what we need to do is to cultivate ourselves. Only if we are strong enough can we cope with the possible two male hegemony competition in the future. Of course, there may also be a wonderful outcome in which one side abstains and wins without fighting.